Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Jul
10

Sedgwick gets bigger.

Monday’s news that giant TPA Sedgwick is acquiring York from Onex shouldn’t have surprised anyone. Sedgwick has been – and will continue to be – an acquirer. Posting revenues of $2.7 billion last year, the TPA’s recent growth – revenues increased by more than 50% in 2018 – has been driven largely by acquisition.

Bought by private equity firm Carlyle just last year for $6.7 billion (from KKR), Sedgwick’s value has likely tripled over the last few years. Of course, that growth required major expenditures, so it’s not like the owners didn’t invest a lot more than the original purchase price of the business.

Growth is critical to any private equity-owned company and in a highly mature industry the fastest, least expensive, and best way to grow is by buying competitors. VeriClaim and Cunningham Lindsey were two of the larger acquisitions during the last few years, and both were smart buys.  They were strategic, adding different skill sets, customer types and service capabilities in addition to hundreds of millions to the top line.

The York acquisition follows the same game plan; it adds several key assets/capabilities;

  • a highly profitable managed care unit built by former leader Doug Markham (York has it’s own proprietary bill review software…);
  • a wealth of experience in program business management; and
  • strong municipality and governmental entity offerings.

With international capabilities and claim handling expertise in all P&C lines, Sedgwick is positioned to grow by handling claims from extreme weather events driven by climate change. It is also gaining efficiency – which will lead to more growth – in shrinking lines such as workers’ comp.

While I’ve locked horns with CEO Dave North in the past, one has to respect the strategic vision, marketing prowess, and execution skill that has pushed Sedgwick to the top of the TPA industry. Senior management is capable indeed; there’s some solid talent at York that will make it even better.

Last point – and it is a critical one. Over the last decade there have been dozens of PE deals in workers’ comp and P&C services. Most private equity investments performed quite well despite – or more accurately partially because – they used debt intelligently.

One would do well to keep that in mind these days; in and of itself debt is not bad or harmful. What is “bad” is a faulty investment thesis and crappy execution.

What does this mean for you?

Strong leadership, management that can execute, and an industry-leading brand make for success. 

How do you stack up?


Jul
1

Key takeaways from what happened last week

Here’s what else was happening last week while we were tracking One Call’s financial troubles…

Who’s for Medicare For All? Who wants to “abolish private health insurance in favor of a public run plan?”

That was the question asked of the 20 (!) Democratic candidates for President at last week’s debate with the request that those in favor raise their hands.

While it was great to see politicians put on the spot, forced to give a “yes or no” answer, the reality is it’s not that simple: There are multiple and quite different versions of “MFA”, ranging from Sanders’ version which is the “no cost to consumers, covers everyone, administered by the Feds, paid for with a big tax increase” to others’ “you can buy into Medicare if you want or keep your employer-based coverage.”

When someone tells you Candidate X wants to do away with your health insurance, make sure that someone knows what they are talking about. Ask them to define exactly what Candidate X’s platform is, then fact check with Google.

Here’s a great side-by-side analysis of all the health reform bills now under consideration. Lots of nuance here…

Provider consolidation – costs and benefits

The California Health Care Foundation published a solid analysis of the implications costs and possible benefits of provider consolidation.

The net – costs go up, quality of care doesn’t.

Key takeaways include:

  • A study of US hospitals by Stanford University researchers found that “hospital ownership of physician practices leads to higher prices and higher levels of hospital spending.”
  • vertical integration increases hospitals’ bargaining power with insurers.
  • Physician groups owned by large hospital systems were more than 50% more expensive than those owned exclusively by physicians, and
  •  “Physician-hospital integration did not improve the quality of care for the overwhelming majority of [quality] measures,”

Drug pricing

Thanks to WCRI for sharing their Flash Report on Drug Trends. The researchers looked at very recent data from 27 states; key takeaways include:

  • compound utilization has fallen off a cliff
  • opioid spend dropped in every one of the 27 states
  • Louisiana’s opioid spend topped all study states at $100 per claim per quarter
  • total drug spend also decreased in 25 of the 27 states.

A brief video intro is available here.  And, the findings parallel what I’m hearing from respondents to our latest PBM in WC Survey.

Next up, another excellent piece from Adam Fein on spread pricing and rebates.

Dr Fein opines that spread pricing – the PBM makes its money on the difference between what it pays the pharmacy and what it charges the payer – isn’t necessarily a bad thing. He also discusses how some manufacturers use rebate payments as a way to force buyers to use their drugs.

head’s up – I’m about halfway thru the 16th (or is it 17th?) “Annual survey of pharmacy benefit management in workers’ comp”; pricing is a hot topic, but the respondents’ views are not what I expected. More on this next week…

Worker mis-classification

Excellent piece in WorkCompCentral about the ongoing effort to combat the real fraud in comp – sleazy employers, employee leasing companies, and labor brokers that lie to avoid paying workers’ comp premiums.

The piece reviews research by Harvard University’s Law School; the research was triggered by:

the USDOL [Department of Labor]…rolling back worker protections in a variety of ways, initially withdrawing a WHD Administrative Interpretation on misclassification, and piloting an amnesty program for wage and hour violators, called the PAID program. As a result of this retreat at the federal level, state enforcement has become more critical than ever.

The entire report is here; the takeaway [emphasis added] is:

“Misclassification and payroll fraud harm workers, depriving them of rights and protections to which they are legally entitled. Law abiding businesses also suffer, as they struggle to compete with companies that unlawfully lower their costs”

Have a great holiday week, enjoy friends and family, and get out and away from work.

I am!


Jun
28

OneCall’s doing great!

I think it’s only fair to allow One Call to tell their side of the story. So, here it is.

Yesterday One Call execs had an off-site meeting and subsequently released a letter to customers extolling the successes the firm is having; landing new customers, rolling out Polaris, improving patient experience, and really improving customer satisfaction.

Oh, and OCCM is fully compliant with its debt covenants and is meeting its financial obligations.

Allow me to make a few observations.

First, current financials will not be reported until some time after June 30 – two days from now – so Mr Baldwin is technically correct when he states that OCCM is “fully compliant.”  Until those financial results are reported (likely mid July, or in two weeks), the debt holders don’t know if OCCM is or is not in compliance; Q1 financials indicated OCCM was compliant – if barely so.

Second, congratulations to OCCM on landing “13 new customer relationships.” Not to be too picky, but I don’t know if that is expansions of existing relationships – say by adding transportation to an existing customer relationship, are entirely new customers, expanding from a one-state contract to multiple states, or what exactly.

Third, Mr Baldwin didn’t mention that Broadspire, Nationwide, and several of the Great American companies have terminated or are terminating or drastically reducing their business with One Call.

I do not envy Baldwin and the folks at One Call; they are in a very difficult position which Baldwin stepped into long after the die was cast. OCCM is loaded down with a huge and growing debt burden, has spent millions on an IT system that – in my estimation – will not improve customer satisfaction, and is trying to compete with other suppliers that are nimble, deliver excellent customer service, and aren’t trying to be all things to all people.

With the exception of Eileen Auen, Peter Madeja, or Mike Ryan I don’t know any leader who could salvage the situation. And even those august personages would face the greatest test of their prodigious talents.

But here’s the really awful thing – even after recent layoffs, OneCall still has thousands of employees who will be affected by this. They had nothing to do with the sale of various predecessor companies, the ridiculous debt, the frankly stupid decision by Apax to put the company together in the first place, the investment of millions into an IT system that could well be too little, too late.

Yet the folks who do the work every day are going to be the ones most hurt.

That sucks.

What does this mean for you?

Fortune favors the prepared. (borrowed from Louis Pasteur)

 

 


Jun
26

OneCall’s financial situation is…

Some of the investors that own OneCall Care Management’s debt holders are getting organized to prepare for a “potential liquidity event and expected covenant violation…”

That’s the lede from a piece [subscription required] authored by Associate Editor Paunie Samreth citing two sources (not me) writing on Debtwire, an Acuris company. Samreth:

The process is in early stages, with DDJ Capital among the firms spearheading efforts given its [DDJ’s] sizable position in the first lien debt, they said.

If you’ll bear with me for a minute, here’s the non-English version of what’s happening. The issue at hand is a “7x first lien leverage covenant” which kicks into action when the company draws down its revolver debt by 20%.  According to Samreth’s article, OCCM had a “razor-thin” margin at 6.9x as of March 31.

I do NOT know what those specific covenants are, however in my experience debt holders put covenants into contracts so the debt holders can take control – partial or total – of a company that is at risk of defaulting on its debt.

Samreth also indicated OCCM had drawn down $50 million of the $56.6 million revolver.

Allow me to translate into language we non-financial wizards understand.

Among other debt instruments – bonds etc – OCCM has “revolving” debt, which is kind of like a line of credit. The company can borrow from it and pay it back as cash flows dictate.

The “7x” is calculated by dividing the total long-term debt – which was reported to be $1.375 billion on March 31 – by cash flow (adjusted EBITDA) – which was $200 million over the 12 months preceding March 31.

So, as of March 31 OCCM had drawn down its revolver by way more than 20%, but had kept its revenue-to-debt ratio just below 7, which prevented the covenants from kicking in.

That was almost three months ago. Since then…citing Samreth:

[OneCall’s] earnings have been pressured in recent quarters as a result of customer losses and pricing pressures in the face of competition from peers including MedRisk, said two of the sources. [Medrisk is an HSA consulting client]

Compounding problems, cash flow has been limited by high capex [capital expenses for the Polaris IT system] needs as a result of its effort to migrate users under a single system, according to one of the sources.

It appears the debtholders are concerned that OneCall’s second quarter financials will indicate it is in violation of the covenants as the ratio will be over 7x and the revolver withdrawal over 20%.

The concern could well be that cash flow will not be enough to pay the interest and cover operating and other expenses. Decreases in revenue (customer losses), increases in expenses, and increases in the amount of debt could all play a role.

The latter – an increase in debt – may be happening as OCCM’s recent refi allows it to not pay interest on some of the new debt, instead adding that debt to the existing principal. I wrote about this a couple days ago.

It appears that the new debt from the refinancing may increase the company’s total first lien debt (that’s part of the covenant equation).  Add that to recent customer losses and the only way out is expense reduction. Rumor is the folks who were working on expanding OCCM into the group health market have been let go, and investments in Polaris have been cut back as well.

Am I full of crap?

Well, I’ve spoken with several current OCCM customers who tell me OCCM staff have assured them all is fine, there are no financial issues, and there’s nothing to worry about.

It could be that Samreth, Debtwire, and I have it all wrong. It could be that OCCM isn’t losing customers, hasn’t laid off staff, hasn’t cut back on investments in Polaris, isn’t in a cash flow crunch.

And I could be the next point guard for the Golden State Warriors.


Jun
25

Yesterday’s executive order by President Trump requires HHS to develop regulations requiring healthcare providers and insurers to publicly post the prices paid for healthcare.

According to Trump, this is “a giant step towards a heath care system that is really fantastic.”

Let’s talk about what this means for you.

First, there’s enough wiggle room in the order to make the slinkiest of snakes comfortable. For example, there are no specific requirements about what information doctors, hospitals and insurers have to disclose.

Second, the executive order itself has no force of law.

Third, if prices are ever posted, patients won’t know what they – the patient – have to pay. The order discusses posting what insurance companies have agreed to pay for a procedure – not what the patient owes.

Fourth, there’s no conclusive research finding that publishing prices reduces overall cost – or even affects consumer behavior. But there is research indicating patients don’t use data to find lower cost care.

Fourth-and-a-half, despite what the President claims in his Executive Order most healthcare services aren’t “shoppable”. If your spouse has chest pain, you aren’t going to wade thru some government database to find the lowest cost heart surgeon. Plus, you aren’t walking in with a shopping list of specific procedures – you’ll get the procedures your doctor orders, and you won’t be in any position to go to one hospital for an MRI and another for anesthesia.

I see you want an MRI, an appendectomy, one assistant surgeon, 2 units of blood, and 5 visits from random doctors.

Want proof?…about one healthcare dollar out of twelve is spent by patients on shoppable services. 

Fifth, pricing agreements are proprietary, negotiated between insurers and providers. Both are now arguing that publicly disclosing those private, confidential contracts will result in higher prices as providers – who now have pricing power over insurers in many markets – find out how much their rivals are getting paid.

Sixth, credible research shows that prices increase when suppliers and buyers have to disclose prices. From the NYT:

The Danish government, in an effort to improve competition in the early 1990s, required manufacturers of ready-mix concrete to disclose their negotiated prices with their customers. Prices for the product then rose 15 percent to 20 percent.

The reason, scholars concluded, is that there were few manufacturers competing for business. Once companies knew what their competitors were charging, it was easy for them to all raise their prices in concert. They could collude without the sort of direct communication that would make such behavior illegal.

Seventh, most healthcare spending is for patients with multiple chronic, and expensive, health conditions.  Think high blood pressure, asthma, depression, diabetes, cardiovascular disease.  These folks blow thru their deductible in March. After that, their healthcare is free to them, so they don’t care what the cost is.

Eighth, any regulations will take years to develop, and will be subject to endless lawsuits. Too bad the attorneys don’t have to post their prices…

What does this mean for you?

This is political grandstanding and will have zero impact on healthcare costs – or what you pay for insurance premiums.

But is sure is easier than actually doing something to improve our healthcare system and lower your costs.

Spoiler Alert – Oh, and the Executive Order adds a whole new layer of bureaucracy and reporting requirements, which will increase healthcare administrative expenses.

 

 

 


Jun
24

Quick update on OneCall

Summer isn’t off to a sunny start for OneCall.

Two good-sized customers are moving their business to other suppliers. Sources indicate concerns over OCCM’s financial situation led to the switch to other vendors for transportation, PT, imaging, DME and home health.

Sources indicate MTI America, VGM HomeLink, MedRisk, HomeCare Connect, and Paradigm are among the winners. (MTI and MedRisk are HSA consulting clients)

Other customers have been in discussions with OneCall about ensuring payments for treating providers are made on a timely basis.

OneCall was carrying just under $2 billion in debt at the end of the first quarter; that has increased due to the refinancing of a big chunk of debt earlier this year. Despite the refi, debt service is eating up most of OneCall’s cash flow, dollars that would otherwise go to internal needs such as Polaris – the company’s name for their new IT platform..

The refi terms allow OneCall to not pay a portion of the interest on the new debt. Instead, the deferred interest becomes part of the debt owed. So, sort of like credit card debt, if you don’t pay the interest owed, you end up owing interest on the unpaid interest.

That saves cash over the near term, but increases the company’s total debt load and the cost of paying off that debt just gets bigger every month.

I’m hearing the customer-facing part of Polaris is gaining fans, but development of connections to and replacement of legacy internal systems isn’t keeping pace. This may be part of any cash-flow problem; Polaris was supposed to reduce headcount by replacing people with systems. If customer-facing staff hasn’t been reduced and customer service levels haven’t gotten better, OneCall has a couple challenges, namely:

  • continuing to pay for Polaris development, while
  • keeping more people on payroll, in an effort to
  • keep customer satisfaction at some reasonable level and
  • generate enough cash flow to pay the bills.

I’ve asked OneCall for their comments, but the company has been quite unresponsive of late so don’t expect anything substantive.

 


Jun
19

Marketing is NOT sales support

Marketing is not sales support.  If proposal writing and RFP responses are in “marketing”, you aren’t doing “marketing”.

Selling is one-to-one. Selling is finding out what that individual’s views, perspectives, challenges, biases, needs, opinions, fears and desires are. It is NOT “selling”, rather it is finding out what problem that person has and what she wants to buy, then packaging your offering so it addresses that individual’s needs and situation.

Marketing is one-to-many. It is doing the research to identify market segments, and those segments’ needs, wants, fears, and buying processes. It is developing and modifying products and services so they specifically address general and specific needs. It is promoting those products and services so potential buyers are aware of them and see the applicability to their situation.

Marketing can be squishy; it can be hard to assess the ROI on a marketing campaign or investment.

Work comp services execs often think marketing is easy, simple, and they are good at it. Hey, they can write an article, press release or “white paper” or give a speech or design a booth.

While a few execs understand Marketing, most do not.

And that is precisely why work comp services is a highly commoditized industry where price is critical. 

What does this mean for you?

Marketing’s budget should be 2 percent of your revenues, and led by someone who really knows the subject.


Jun
17

Marketing drives product – not vice versa

With rare exceptions, work comp services companies don’t get marketing, don’t fund it adequately, and then complain when “marketing’ doesn’t work.

They build a product/service then try to convince buyers they need it.  Example – “buyers want to buy all ancillary services from one vendor!”

That’s bass ackwards.  Instead, they should identify an unmet need, then build their products/services to meet that need. 

Okay, you’ve already got products and services, so you aren’t looking to create any new ones.  Same rule applies –

  • figure out what the market wants,
  • adjust your offering so it meets those needs, and
  • package it such that potential buyers see how it solves their problem(s).

More broadly, services companies must understand what drives buying decisions in work comp.  I’d suggest “fear” is a much more potent driver than “greed”.  Note these terms are very general and are not meant to connote actual fear or greed, but rather concern over lack of performance vs desire for optimal performance.

Buyers want to be assured the problem will be solved, the risk of non-performance is vanishingly small, and the cost will be borne by policyholders/clients/assignable to claims. They want as close to zero risk as possible – more for reasons of personal survival than corporate objectives.

And, understanding there are at least two “buyers” is critical – the exec in the home office who signs the contract and the desk-level person who actually uses the services. Both have to be comfortable that your product/service meets their individual needs, which are usually quite different.

The corporate buyers want solutions that deliver cost reductions with no compliance issues and minimal-to-no IT resource requirements.

The desk-level folks want seamless connectivity, proactive communications, and service that handles any and every issue.

What does this mean for you?

It isn’t about you or your products. Start from your customers’ perspective and not from your’s.  And stay there.

 

 


Jun
14

Happy Friday! It’s Research Roundup time.

Here’s my quick takeaways on new research – and how it affects you.

WCRI on the interaction of health insurance and workers’ comp

Bogdan Savych PhD of WCRI has provided an excellent review of the interaction of health insurance coverage and workers’ outcomes post-injury. 

The percentage of workers with health insurance increased from 84% in 2008 to 90% in 2017, driven primarily by the ACA.  Notably Medicaid expansion was responsible for most of this growth. Overall, workers who had private health insurance:

  • got an initial non-ER evaluation a little earlier;
  • recovered a little faster;
  • were more  likely to return to work; and
  • were a bit less likely to hire an attorney.

Note these differences were slight – but real – for workers who had employer-based coverage, NOT Medicaid. (Dr Savych separated out workers covered by these two payers.)

This means – health insurance coverage slightly improves work comp outcomes.

Implementation of the ODG formulary and opioid reduction

NCCI’s just-released analysis shows minimal correlation between adoption of the ODG formulary and decreased opioid dispensing. From the report:

The ODG Formulary had a limited observed impact on opioid utilization in the early period after implementation.

It appears other factors such as much more public and prescriber awareness of the dangers of opioids and general changes in prescribing patterns may have been a primary driver of the across-the-board decrease in opioid scripts.

This means…formularies are a relatively small part of the solution. Strong UR and external factors are likely much more important.

Drug prices and profits

Adam Fein’s excellent Drug Channels delivers details on where the pharmacy profits are piling up.

Dr Fein notes “many multi-billion-dollar businesses profit as drugs move through the U.S. reimbursement and distribution system.”

This means…most rebate dollars are passed thru to employers and PBMs.

Hospital prices

RAND’s research finds the gap between Medicare reimbursement for facility services and what other private health plans pay increased over the last few years; on average private insurers paid almost 2 1/2 times Medicare rates.

This varied widely among states; if you operate in Colorado, Montana, Wisconsin, Maine, Wyoming, and Indiana reimbursement is even higher, while Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, and Kentucky’s commercial prices were only 1.5 to 2 times Medicare rates (yippee…).

This means…work comp payers are almost certainly paying way too much for hospital care.

 


Jun
11

The Arrogance of Ignorance

Your systems, savings, capabilities, and results are better than the competition.

You know that because, well, it’s true. You’ve seen reports that show it’s true, been told that by your bosses, or some independent third party said so.

I cannot count the number of times I’ve heard “we save X to Y points more than the competition.” – or something just like that. One problem – your competitors believe the same thing. All of them. They’re wrong…right?

I heard it again at the National Council of Self Insurers’ meeting in Orlando yesterday – several times. When I demurred, my demurrals were rejected out of hand.

Allow me to burst your bubble.

Utilization review should be used to ensure the medical care delivered to patients is the right care, for that specific patient, by the right provider. In most cases, it is nothing of the sort. Rather, it is done to comply with regulations, generate revenue and is almost never integrated into billing.

Bill review is merely applying relevant regulations and fee schedule edits, sending bills to network vendors, and adding in some high-cost bill audits and perhaps retro UR and clinical audit.

Network selection doesn’t account for lower cost providers – it is based on discounts not net costs.

This is really basic stuff – and compared to what happens in group health it barely scratches the surface. Fact is medical providers are way more sophisticated than payers when it comes to coding, billing, and revenue management. There’s an entire industry devoted to revenue maximization for workers’ comp.

Data point – work comp represents about 1 percent of a health system’s revenue, but more than 10% of profits.

If you’re doing such a great job managing medical, why are providers making so much money off your patients?

With the exception of the Workers’ Comp Trust of Connecticut – I’ve NEVER seen a workers’ comp medical management program worthy of an A grade. In fact, the metrics most to evaluate program results are prima facie evidence the programs can’t be succeeding. Metrics like:

  • savings below billed charges
  • savings below fee schedule
  • turn around time
  • UR denials
  • network penetration

are all process – not outcome – measures. And they measure the wrong things.

The right metrics include:

  • medical cost by claim – case mix adjusted
  • drug cost per claim
  • time from date of injury to correct diagnosis
  • disability duration – case mix adjusted – by provider and employer location

How am I so confident you’re not as good as you think?

I’ve audited dozens of programs and seen crappy data, inaccurate reporting, useless metrics, and poor analytical methodologies in almost all.

A fundamental problem in work comp medical management is complacency and an unwillingness to ask and demand answers to tough questions, borne out of today’s low medical expenses and continually dropping premiums. The result is many have grown fat and happy.

What does this mean for you?

You can do better.  A lot better.

 


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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