Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Mar
16

Covid-19 update and fact check

This is way worse than we thought even a week ago. The death rate remains much higher than the flu, while we continue to get confusing and contradictory messages from the White House.

Facts.

  • In the US, the number of diagnoses has tripled over three days.
  • The death rate is just shy of 2 percent – about 20 times greater than the regular flu.
  • Italy remains the worst-affected country, with almost 25,000 confirmed cases and 1800 deaths – a death rate of 7.2 percent.
  • Contrary to what you may have heard, Italy’s population is NOT the oldest in Europe – Germany’s people are slightly older – and many other countries are almost as old as Italy.

What will protect us?

Not this…

  • face masks.  those regular face masks are useless. Unless the facemask is specifically designed to eliminate most airborne moisture – and you have been trained specifically in how to fit the mask – it won’t protect you.
  • Unless you are already ill – in which case those regular masks help limit others’ exposure.
  • A vaccine. There will NOT BE A VACCINE for at least a year.
  • Drugs – THERE ARE NO MEDICATIONS TO TREAT COVID-19.

This.

Wash your hands. Use alcohol-infused wipes.

Stay home.

Avoid any close contact with anyone you do not KNOW.

Sorry, grandma…I didn’t mean to kill you.  For anyone younger than 30  or older than 60 reading this – forgive me for generalizing, but please stop doing stupid stuff. Going to St Patrick’s Day events, senior dance parties, concerts, beach parties, and bars won’t hurt you much (unless you are diabetic, asthmatic, have pulmonary issues, are obese, or have an immune deficiency (which you may find out the hard way) – but it will kill others who get Covid-19 from you.

Finally, what’s with this obsession with toilet paper? 

If this is the beginning of the zombie apocalypse – which it most definitely is not – I’m thinking we should be ensuring there’s enough nutrition to go into our bodies – if there isn’t, we will not have to worry about taking care of what exits our bodies.

Okay, after ten days of nothing but Covid-19 blog posts, we’re going back to our regularly-scheduled focus on healthcare, healthcare policy, and workers’ comp stuff.

 


Mar
13

Covid-19 update

Here’s where things sit today.

What we know:

  • Italy is getting hammered, especially the northern regions. The death rate is over 7%, healthcare facilities are overwhelmed, and there aren’t enough ventilators and oxygen to go around.
  • The number of reported cases in the US hasn’t increased much overnight – but that is likely due to complete failure by the government to get testing started quickly, and to develop an accurate test to begin with. And, yes, even now there aren’t enough test kitsthank goodness the Chinese are going to send us a half-million.
  • It looks like test kit availability will ramp up in the coming days – but we are weeks behind when actually needed them. Without testing, officials have no idea what’s actually happening, can’t allocate resources, make intelligent decisions about closures and travel bans.
  • Our healthcare “system” is uniquely problematic; there are north of 18 million who don’t have insurance, and among those who do, folks with high deductible plans will have to pay for treatment and many don’t have adequate funds to do so. The result – the disease will spread in part because victims can’t afford testing or treatment.
  • Social isolation and basic handwashing are the cure for the pandemic. 
  • My beloved Syracuse rowing teams won’t be racing this year; my heart goes out to the men and women who have trained like the champions they are for 8 months only to be sent home.  Same goes for every other athlete in every other sport at every other institution.

Please – be thoughtful, don’t travel or mix in with large groups, and don’t panic.

And, you now have time for an “at home date” with your significant other, hang with the kids, catch up on those home chores, read those books stacking up on your night stand, clean the windows, finish your taxes, and be forever grateful for important stuff.

Finally, I encourage you to read this – and thanks to reader Paul Meyer for the tip.


Mar
12

An Abundance of Caution

That – along with social distancing – is the phrase that will mark 2020.

So here’s where we are – typed as I wait to board a plane home.

This is from Johns Hopkins University; best site I’ve seen for current infection rates and locations.

What we know about Covid-19:

  • It is most dangerous for the elderly and those with underlying health conditions such as COPD, asthma, and other chronic conditions.
  • It is MUCH less dangerous for the rest of us.
  • The overall fatality rate appears to be between 1% and 2% – but may well be lower as we do NOT know how many of us are walking around with the disease and no symptoms
  • Most of the deaths in the US occurred in a nursing home in Washington state.
  • The epidemic appears to have peaked in parts of China, with fewer and fewer new cases appearing
  • Italy is hardest hit; the death rate appears to be about 8% – again that may be distorted due to inadequate testing.

What works

Social distancing – defined as staying a few feet away from others wherever and whenever possible.

Washing hands, covering coughs and sneezes, using sanitizers containing alcohol.

What we have to do

Be realistic. There’s a ton of happy talk out there about how this isn’t that bad, it’s a made-up crisis, and somehow all will be fine and it will disappear in April and a vaccine will be here shortly and .

That’s crap. A vaccine won’t be here for at least a year, hot and humid Singapore has a persistent outbreak, and Covid-19 is much deadlier than the flu.

But, Chill. This isn’t Ebola, SARs, or MERs. Yes it may be 10+ times worse than the flu, but it isn’t the black plague.

Tip service workers. Baristas, Lyft drivers, Uber Eats and Instacart workers, bartenders, maids are getting crushed financially. Help them out.

Be kind and thoughtful and nice.  We will get thru this, and we’ll be wiser for it.

 

 


Mar
9

Coronavirus/Covid-19 update

WCRI’s annual meeting was well attended…timing is everything. Many other events have been cancelled or postponed, especially those on the west coast – not to mention Italy, Iran, and Asia.

Here’s what we know about Covid-19 (the disease caused by the coronavirus) so far.

Those are the facts – here’s stuff that may be true, or is uncertain as of now.

  • the death rate for confirmed cases appears to be between 2% (apparent rate in China) and 1% (researchers speculating). Note the italics; it is possible, if not likely, that there are many more unconfirmed cases or untested patients that are not dying, thus the death rate may be significantly lower. Also, note that the death rate derived from the number above is significantly higher; that may well be due to lack of testing that would have identified many patients early on who did not die.
  • if these figures hold up, Covid-19 will be much deadlier than most other flu varieties which have a mortality rate of 0.1% – again much higher in vulnerable populations
  • the growth in the number of confirmed cases varies greatly by country – in general, it is doubling every week or so.

What does this mean for you?

Don’t over-react.  This isn’t Ebola or the Black Death – and may be significantly less deadly than the Spanish Flu of a century ago.

Travel isn’t a no-no.  I’m headed to Florida today  – so it’s not just happy talk from your loyal reporter.  And the WHO agrees.

What IS stupid/irresponsible/selfish is engaging with other people or being in public spaces if you feel ill.  A jackass did just that last week – he happens to work at Dartmouth Hitchcock, where our eldest daughter is also employed. Needless to say, he’s on the poop list.

Mostly, chill. 


Mar
6

WCRI Day two quick takes

Your faithful reporter braincramped and left his laptop charger at home, so most of the session coverage will come next week after I translate my scribbling to pixels.

for now, posting via smartphone

Friday’s quick takes

– Inpatient facility costs average about 17% of total medical costs

– the average increase in inpatient payments was 7.2%; WI, VA, and IA’s increases were significantly greater

– the percentage of claims that had inpatient costs declined from 2012 to 2017, driven mostly by a reduction in surgical cases

– great talk on reoperation and readmission rates for lumbar surgery patients from Rebecca Yang PhD; the total 30 day readmit/reop rate is about 18%; Strikes me as very high…oh and you are paying for the re-dos.

more to come Monday.

 

 


Mar
5

Dr Vennela Thumula led off a panel discussing the latest research on changes in opioid prescribing in workers’ comp.

Many factors have contributed to the decline, PDMPs, changes in prescribing guidelines and enforcement via legislation, public education and workers’ comp drug formulary adoption are among the contributors.

Key takeaways from research looking at two time periods; 2014-2016 and 2016-2018.

Opioid use decreased in nearly all study states

The average volume of opioids dropped in almost all states too.

There was more use of non-opioid pain medications as opioid use decreased.

Finally, overall, fewer workers are getting pain meds these days, a positive outcome indeed.

Panelists discussed the information in depth an dove into specifics; Dr Albert Rielly of Mass General Hospital noted that at one point the number one cause of death for workers’ comp back patients receiving surgery was opioid poisoning. He also described a situation in Germany where a person was surprised when they didn’t get Vicodin after major dental surgery; ibuprofen was deemed enough. And, it was.

Dr Rielly rarely prescribes opioids to treat occupational injuries, and provided insights into alternative treatments for pain. He noted when one starts PT is key; it may not be appropriate to begin PT right away, just as it usually isn’t helpful to delay for several weeks.

John Christian, a practitioner who runs an assistance program for the construction trades in Massachusetts indicated there is good news and bad. Fewer patients are testing positive for inappropriate drugs, and the death rate for opioid overdoses has declined. The bad news is, opioid use may not be going down, rather there are fewer patients dying due to the increased availability of Narcan.

Mr Christian noted the death rate for opioid poisoning remains high; he also noted that massage and acupuncture is becoming more common among his patient population – and he’s a fan of cognitive behavioral therapy. The longer the patients are in treatment, the better the outcomes,

A somewhat-new problem is emerging – topicals intended to treat pain. Dr Thumula noted the use appears to be increasing, particularly in Illinois.  Nina McIlree MD of Zurich echoed Dr Thumula’s point, indicating Zurich is seeing more prescribing of dermatologics.  Pain kits have been growing as well; these are branded compounded kits that may include tape – plus over-the-counter medications to deliver those “medications”.

What’s coming…

Dr McIlree opined that we need to be watchful especially regarding invasive procedures, potentially inappropriate use of spinal cord stimulators, and the old favorite – epidural steroid injections.

Dr Rielly suggested prescribers need to focus on quality of life and functionality when speaking with a patient in pain, along with a quick determination of the efficacy of treatment, the idea being to stop doing stuff that isn’t working quickly and move to something that may help.

The key takeaway is that pain is a symptom, not a cause. Therefore if you don’t address the underlying issue, you’ll never be able to affect the pain…increasing opioid dosages, trying expensive and unproven novel treatments, wrapping limbs in fancy athletic tape all focus on the wrong thing.

What does this mean for you?

  • Opioid use is declining- and that is a very good thing.
  • Be really vigilant about “alternative treatments” with scant solid research backing up any claims.
  • Chronic pain management is difficult, time-consuming, often not linear, and requires a very long term commitment; these patients do not “get better” quickly.
  • Be patient and persistent – and don’t get discouraged.

Mar
4

Heading to WCRI – practice “safe conferencing”

Don’t be offended if handshakes aren’t offered and hugs avoided…it’s all part of “safe conferencing”, my name for the guidelines posted by the fine folk at WCRI.

Things kick off tomorrow, but most are getting in this afternoon – me included. I’m looking forward to the discussion of economic cycles and their impact on the labor market. Economists have been predicting a significant slowdown in growth for months and things are looking shakier due to the coronavirus’ impact on travel and supply chains. 

Here’s an excellent piece by one of the best news sources – The Economist – on how things will be different in the next recession than in past versions, and why.

And another from the Wharton School on the virus, how business is reacting to it’s many effects, and thoughts about long-term impact(s).

(I’ll be posting on this issue next week)

Got dinners, lunches, and breakfasts all confirmed, along with a cocktail catch-up or three.

Good to see colleagues aren’t over-reacting to the coronavirus thing.  Yes it’s a concern, but it is not a reason to stay home.

 


Mar
3

After the Coventry deal

A dozen years ago, there were lots of relatively small companies delivering specific services to work comp payers.

There were 10 PBMs.  5 bill review application and more diagnostic imaging vendors. Dozens of case management companies. Scores of IME firms.  The same for DME, home health, transportation/translation, and UR.  Lots more TPAs too.

Today’s landscape is dramatically different.

3 PBMs have significant market share.

Conduent is the largest BR app provider, with Mitchell second and Medata gaining share; their competitors were acquired.

There’s one major dx imaging firm.

A dominant IME company.

There’s been vertical consolidation (think Examworks rolling up the IME business) and horizontal mergers (One Call buying PT, DME, home health, dental and T&T companies; Paradigm buying case management, network, and niche service firms, Mitchell/Genex doing the same).

Sure, there are smaller companies, many of which are flourishing – think HomeCare Connect, MTI America and Carisk (the latter two are HSA consulting clients).  There are much larger ones – think MedRisk (HSA consulting client) – that focus on a single service. These companies identified a niche, and/or developed a unique capability and/or deliver exemplary service – simple in concept, brutally hard in execution.

What’s happening in the workers’ comp service industry shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone with a lick of business sense; comp is a shrinking business, with flat medical costs and fewer claims every year.

For an excellent summary, read this Harvard Business Review article.

Point being there are two distinct ways to survive and even thrive in a rapidly consolidating industry – get big, get efficient, lower costs – or focus narrowly and/or deliver exemplary service.

In either case, a relentless focus on identifying and solving customers’ problems will determine if you live or die.

Both models have big issues and challenges;

  • cybersecurity is a huge challenge for small companies with limited resources;
  • efficiency does not and cannot mean lowering customer service standards; and
  • buyers (managed care and claims execs) value different things than front line workers – but you have to please both.

What does this mean for you?

If you’re wondering where you will be in a few years, wonder no more. There will be fewer service companies delivering fewer services to a smaller group of ever more demanding payers.

 

 


Mar
2

The Coventry deal is done.

After weeks of speculation – most of it pretty accurate – it’s official.

In one of the more impactful transactions we’re likely to see this year, CVS/Aetna has agreed to sell Coventry Workers’ Comp Services to Mitchell/Genex. Terms haven’t been disclosed. Press release is here

The deal isn’t official until it’s passed thru any and all regulatory hoops. I doubt very much there will be any problems as the current Administration isn’t interested in doing much of anything to interfere with business.  Sources indicate current Coventry leader Art Lynch will report up to Peter Madeja; as noted here before I’m a big fan of Peter’s.

Oldsters will recall that Aetna tried to sell Coventry at least twice.  Both times the deal didn’t happen because the owners didn’t understand the critically important issue – who owned the network contracts.

After the last debacle, Aetna went back and converted (almost) all the Coventry provider contracts to Coventry paper, so the network contracts convey with the sale of Coventry. Since it’s the network that drives the majority of profits, this was a have-to.

In addition to the network itself, Coventry has a bunch of other assets – PBM FirstScript, a bill review business, case management and UR, and other stuff.

Takeaways.

Data is a huge asset, and one that should create a lot of value for Coventry and its customers. As the largest network, one of the largest bill review entities, and with decades of transaction history, the company has the information it needs to build a much more effective network…effective defined as “one that delivers lower net cost for its customers.”

In an HSA survey of 15 big payers’ views of provider networks, Coventry garnered the top spot in terms of market acceptance and respondent ranking. It is certainly the largest in terms of share despite chronic under-investment by owner Aetna.  Now that Coventry will be owned by a workers’ comp entity run by people who know workers’ comp, I’d expect a pretty significant investment into the core asset – the PPO.

That will undoubtedly include building and staffing a network contracting and management capability – from scratch. Certainly M/G will be able to use Aetna’s technology and perhaps contracting/credentialing resources for some time, and equally sure M/G will do everything possible to build that network management capability quickly and well.

If they do it right, customers should see improved results in the form of lower facility costs.

The First Script PBM is the next biggest asset.  It has also suffered from underinvestment for years. Given the continued decline in work comp drug spending and the need for millions to invest in PPO network infrastructure, it wouldn’t be surprising if the new owners focused their interest elsewhere.

Genex’ bill review operation is a big player, and the addition of Coventry’s BR operation will add even more scale. One question – what to do about the BR platform?  Coventry is a big Stratacare user which presents a bit of a dilemma as the new owner is a direct competitor.

Then there’s case management, UR, and other related services.  These can be readily integrated into Genex’ current service portfolio and will strengthen the company’s breadth and scale. Expect Genex to leverage this to expand relationships with national payers.

Implications

The transaction marks the latest in a long list of mergers and acquisitions in the workers’ comp services business. We are nearing the end of a decade-long consolidation – there are just not that many large assets left, the industry is not that interesting due to structural issues, and fewer assets = higher prices.

Payers should see better results from a Coventry network run by people who understand work comp and are willing to invest big dollars into building a much more effective network.

Conduent’s leadership may be thinking thru implications as well as there’s a bit of channel conflict.  As the largest (by market share) WC BR application vendor is rumored to be in this for the long haul, I strongly doubt Conduent will be having second thoughts about partnering with the largest WC PPO.

 


Mar
2

Coronavirus, Monday update

Until things calm down we’ll do an occasional post on the biggest health story out there – coronavirus.

Thanks to Larry – here’s the latest numbers (as of 10 am EST 3-2-20) on cases, recoveries, and mortalities by nation. Source link here.

Note that all views/opinions/takes are based on what we know nowwhich will change as time goes on.

First, how afraid should you be?

Quick take – it’s worse than the flu, but way less dangerous than other diseases.

This isn’t Ebola – which has an 80% death rate.  It’s not MERS (death rate of 34.7%) or the plague (death rate of 15% if patients are effectively treated).

Based on very incomplete data, it looks like the death rate is equal to or less than the Spanish Flu – somewhere less than 2 percent. No question – that is a relatively high death rate – but it is based on very preliminary data.

Here’s a datapoint – in the US 18,000 people have died from the flu in the current flu season – and over 300,000 have been hospitalized.

So far, logic says you should be a heckuva lot more afraid of the regular flu.

More to the point, it appears those with compromised respiratory systems, or in poor health, or with other serious health problems are at much higher risk than healthier folks.

BUT – and it’s a big but – that mortality rate may be much lower, because:

  • a significant percentage of people that test positive for corona don’t have any symptoms
  • tests  – especially the one initially used in the US – weren’t very accurate

How contagious is it?

Probably about the same as a “regular” flu; again initial reports indicate corona is more contagious, but that may be because it was a brand new disease, wasn’t managed well at the outset, and started in a very densely populated area.

What are the symptoms?

Initially, fever and a cough; some victims go on to contact pneumonia.

Will corona go away when it gets warmer?

We have no idea. There is no scientific basis for President Trump’s claim that warmer weather will end the epidemic; this is a brand new virus and no one has any idea if or how it will be affected by weather.

Lastly – be very careful about information sources.

The World Health Organization is the best I’ve seen.

One that pops up at the top of google searches is RT. RT is funded, staffed, and written by the Russian government.  RT highly exaggerates death rates, here’s one example: RESEARCHERS DISCOVER MERS HAS A 65% FATALITY RATE

This is categorically false.

To date, White House announcements about corona haven’t been much better. White House statements have downplayed the risk of corona, the number of cases, how fast it is spreading, and claimed the flu’s death rate is the same as corona (it isn’t; so far corona looks to be 14 – 20 times more deadly than the flu).

What does this mean for you?

Science is important.

 


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

SUBSCRIBE BY EMAIL

SEARCH THIS SITE

A national consulting firm specializing in managed care for workers’ compensation, group health and auto, and health care cost containment. We serve insurers, employers and health care providers.

 

DISCLAIMER

© Joe Paduda 2024. We encourage links to any material on this page. Fair use excerpts of material written by Joe Paduda may be used with attribution to Joe Paduda, Managed Care Matters.

Note: Some material on this page may be excerpted from other sources. In such cases, copyright is retained by the respective authors of those sources.

ARCHIVES

Archives