Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Oct
12

What healthcare costs and what you pay

Individuals and families will spend about a trillion dollars on healthcare costs this year. 

Most of those dollars pay for out-of-pocket costs and your share of employer-sponsored health insurance costs.

For those with employer-sponsored health insurance, annual premiums in 2020 averaged $7,470 for individuals; $21,342 for families.

Average premiums went up 4% this year, continuing the long-term trend of healthcare inflation significantly exceeding overall inflation.

Over the last five years, premiums increased 22%, more than twice the overall inflation rate (10%).

Then there’s out of pocket costs.

Most families with high deductible plans will have to cough up (no pun intended) more than $4,000 before their insurance plan starts paying.

What does this mean for you?

Every year, more and more of your income goes to healthcare.

 


Oct
6

Opioids – Deaths up, Sacklers likely to escape justice

Three news items hit the desk, ranging from bad to awful.

More than 73,000 of us died of drug overdoses in the 12 months ending February, 2020. That’s four thousand more deaths than the previous year.

(note graph below is for a slightly different time period)

And it is getting worse.

Preliminary data indicates the death count is up 13% so far this year.

The number of non-fatal overdoses in Vermont tripled this year, with almost 9 out of 10 involving fentanyl.

Meanwhile, the drug dealers directly responsible for much of the horror are about to escape with most of their billions in ill-gotten gains intact.

The drug dealers are the Sacklers, owners of Purdue Pharma. Purdue developed and marketed OxyContin; A recent study,  authored by the Wharton School, Notre Dame, and RAND reported “the introduction and marketing of OxyContin explain a substantial share of overdose deaths over the last two decades.”

This from a New Yorker article:

Behind the scenes, lawyers for Purdue and its owners have been quietly negotiating with Donald Trump’s Justice Department to resolve all the various federal investigations in an overarching settlement, which would likely involve a fine but no charges against individual executives. [emphasis added]

A lawsuit indicated over the last few years, the Sackler family has transferred billions of dollars offshore, effectively protecting those assets from the US justice system. This from the New Yorker:

In a deposition, one of the company’s own experts testified that the Sacklers had removed as much as thirteen billion dollars from Purdue.

The states have asserted in legal filings that the total cost of the opioid crisis exceeds two trillion dollars. Relative to that number, the three billion dollars that the Sacklers are guaranteeing in their offer is miniscule. It is also a small number relative to the fortune that the Sacklers appear likely to retain, which could be three or four times that amount. [emphasis added]

This country has jailed millions of poor people for decades for drug-related crimes; the Trump Administration appears poised to let the white-collar drug dealers most responsible for the opioid crisis walk away with billions of dollars they made addicting America.

What does this mean for you?

The Sacklers should rot in hell, but they will likely live on in unimaginable luxury. We should all be outraged.

 


Oct
5

COVID and work comp in the Sunshine State

WorkCompCentral hosted a webinar last week (you can watch at no cost) diving into key issues related to Florida’s experience with COVID19 and workers’ comp. Moderated by Rafael Gonzalez (one of the nicest people you’ll ever meet), the panel included a defense attorney, judge, and managed care executive providing different perspectives on COVID’s impact.

Most of the discussion focused on solutions; we’ll touch on the ongoing issue of claim acceptance before highlighting some of the solutions discussed by the panelists.

Claims filed v accepted

Judge David Langham noted that about 7,000 of roughly 17,000 COVID claims filed have been partially or completely denied, yet to date only a handful have filed petitions seeking benefits. (A petition would lead to a formal hearing.)

Ya’Sheaka Williams, a defense attorney, spoke at length about healthcare workers’ exposure, indicating that in her experience claims filed by these workers weren’t contested. She provided good insight into differences between “essential” vs “non-essential” workers, noting sanitation workers are even more important now than ever as it is critical to safely dispose of potentially contaminated materials.

Langham also noted that 96% of accepted cases have resulted in payments <$5,000; the average is <$1,000. (consistent with data Mark Priven and I previously reported)

Of course, as Langham indicated we do NOT know what the long-term impact of COVID19 on individuals will will be; there’s evidence that some individuals have lasting chronic conditions, some of which can be quite debilitating.

Langham averred “in the United States, we aren’t reporting who has recovered, whatever that means.” That surprised me, as a slide displayed earlier in the same presentation specifically reported recoveries in the US. (the picture below is from the same site, captured this morning)

In defense of Judge Langham, I hasten to add that in fact that while there is some reporting of “recoveries”, there’s no universally-accepted definition of “recovery”, nor is the reporting of recoveries consistent across states or even counties within states.  For example, Texas has reported 680,000 “recoveries”, while New York  – a state with much higher infection counts – has only reported 77,000, and California and Florida have not reported ANY recoveries. (at least as reported by JHU)

The lack of clear and specific definitions and guidance from the Federal Government – and a Federal mandate that reporting entities stick to those definitions and guidance – is highly problematic.

Matthew Landon, Chief Strategy Officer of MTI America, suggested employers ensure they are using the same processes, procedures, and strategies to evaluate COVID19-related claims that they use for all claims. Consistency is critical to demonstrate objectivity.

Lessons learned

Judge Langham noted that virtual hearings are proving we can use technology to speed up hearings, engage with claimants more effectively, and get to resolution quickly despite the inability to get together in person. He also encouraged all of us to “protect ourselves mentally and physically” so we can help others.

Kudos to Judge Langham for reminding us that before one can help others, one has to take care of oneself.

Landon identified telephonic translation services a key tool speeding up claims handling and ensuring the right care is getting to workers with language limitations. He also noted care within medical offices seems to be more effective as patients are seen more quickly with lower waiting times; office managers are working to keep the number of patients in offices as low as possible.

More care is being delivered in the home of late, a response to workers’ desire to avoid medical facilities.

Ms Williams reported Tampa Airport is partnering with BayCare Health Systems to provide passengers coronavirus tests on-site at no cost to the passenger, highlighting one example of companies working together to come up with creative solutions to reduce risk and personal stress levels.

She also was encouraged that the delays in accessing care experienced by many injured workers seem to have abated somewhat, a promising development as more clinical practices open up for on-site care and more providers adopt tele-medical solutions.

What does this mean for you?

Good information from folks with deep knowledge of Florida’s experience, much of it applicable to other states as well.

note MTI America is an HSA consulting client


Oct
2

Trump tests positive – initial takeaways

President Trump has tested positive for the coronavirus; we’ll divert from our usual focus on healthcare matters to highlight what we know now, and potential implications.

It is important to understand that most people with coronavirus have no symptoms or  relatively mild cases. Statistics favor a positive outcome for the President.

Infection source

We do not know how the President become infected. We do know that one of his closest advisers, Hope Hicks, tested positive. Reports indicate Hicks has multiple daily encounters with the President, traveled with him on Air Force One, and accompanied him on his latest trips.

The President’s health

Implications

CDC data indicates that one out of ten people in their 70’s with positive diagnoses of COVID19 died. The report did not separate data by sex; it is likely men are at higher risk of death. (note there are no credible reports that Trump has COVID19 – he has tested positive for the coronavirus which may lead to COVID19.)

The same study indicated almost one out of three COVID19 patients 70-79 with an underlying medical condition died; note that obesity was not specifically identified as a medical condition.

Near-term implications

First, the President will suspend his campaign schedule during a two-week quarantine period. Events will be canceled for the time being as his campaign awaits developments.

If his health is severely impaired, his powers as President can be delegated to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment to the Constitution until such time as he is able to resume those duties.

Worst-case implications

If a sitting President dies at any time during his/her term, the Vice President assumes the Presidency.

If a major political party’s candidate dies after being nominated by her/his party, and during the election campaign, that candidate’s political party would nominate a replacement candidate. The process differs by party; for the GOP, the Republican National Committee would oversee the process which gives each state the same number of votes it has at the party convention.

[Note the Democratic Party’s process is generally similar]

It is unclear what happens if the Party’s candidate is medically incapacitated at the time of the election.

There is no Constitutional provision to delay a Presidential election in the event of a candidate’s illness, incapacity, or death after nomination and before the election.

For more information on the latest details on COVID19 treatment, click here.

What to watch for

There will be a lot of political maneuvering and posturing , most of it just noise.

Rely on credible news sources – the major broadcast networks, NPR, and major newspapers – and ignore nonsense from YouTube, twitter, and the like.

And there are already lots of ridiculous conspiracy theories – ignore them too.

 

 

 


Sep
29

If the Supreme Court kills “Obamacare”

With President Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court all but confirmed, there are huge implications for healthcare. If the Court rules the ACA/Obamacare is unconstitutional, “a host of provisions may be eliminated” including:

  • protections for people with pre-existing conditions,
  • subsidies to make individual health insurance more affordable,
  • expanded eligibility for Medicaid,
  • coverage of young adults up to age 26 under their parents’ insurance policies,
  • coverage of preventive care with no patient cost-sharing, and
  • lower drug costs for seniors using Medicare’s drug benefit.

Today, a brief summary of the court case and analysis of two major implications.

A week after the election the Court will hear the Trump Administration and Republican State Attorneys General argue that the entire ACA/Obamacare must be struck down. Health policy nerds (guilty!) will recall that lower courts ruled that Congress’ elimination of the individual mandate killed the entire ACA; this is the Trump/Republican AGs’ argument.

Democratic Attorneys General have argued that the mandate can and should be separated from the rest of the ACA.

We don’t know how the Court will rule. We do know that after Barrett’s confirmation, the Supreme Court will have a 6-3 supermajority of conservative justices. According to HealthAffairs, writing about the lower court’s ruling, Judge Barrett “does not clearly state her own view but signals support for the dissent’s view (full invalidation of the ACA).” [emphasis added]

Seniors and Hospitals will be dramatically impacted if the Supreme Court overturns the ACA/Obamacare (we’ll address other implications tomorrow).

Seniors

Ending the Medicaid expansion will eliminate benefits for seniors and others in Medicaid expansion states with incomes just above the poverty line.

The ACA closed the “doughnut hole” in the Medicare drug plan, saving a million seniors about $3,200 each. If it is overturned, seniors with high drug costs to treat chronic diseases such as MS, hepatitis C, some cancers, and some autoimmune diseases will see much higher costs.

Hospitals

Many hospitals are already in financial distress, especially in rural areas and states that did not expand Medicaid.

Tennessee and Texas lead the nation in hospital closures, with one-fifth of the Lone Star State’s rural hospitals already closed or close to it. Just north, a grassroots movement in Oklahoma driven by closure of a half-dozen rural hospitals, is gaining traction.

While Becker’s reports all but one of the hospitals going belly up are in states that didn’t expand Medicaid. 

If the Court overturns the ACA/Obamacare, many more rural and smaller hospitals will shut down, leaving healthcare deserts behind.

(Work comp is also affected – albeit indirectly)

What does this mean for you?

If you are a senior concerned about the cost of drugs, and/or live in a rural area, the Court’s decision will have real consequences.

 


Sep
28

COVID catch-up

Like many, I’m suffering from COVID19 burn out. This weekend’s news that more than 200,000 of us have died from the disease was a much-needed kick in the pants; I’ll do better keeping track of news – good and bad – about the pandemic and its impact on us.

To start, kudos to the California Workers’ Compensation Institute for their excellent work tracking the impact of COVID on workers comp in the Golden State. Their interactive tool is here; takeaways from the latest update (for 2020 to the end of August) include:

  • CWCI projects there will be 48,000 COVID claims incurred through the end of August
  • About 13,500 will be denied
  • Healthcare will account for about 4 out of ten claims accepted
  • Retail and food services will account for about one of every eight claims accepted
  • Including both COVID and non-COVID claims, claim counts are down 26% from 2019 levels.

Data

About 200,000 of us have died from COVID19; about one of every fifty of us has tested positive. And the number of infections keeps increasing at a troubling rate, especially in Rocky Mountain states and those just to the East.

Treatment  – 2 medications are helping infected patients, a couple more are showing promise, and – once again – hydroxychloroquine is NOT on that list.

Vaccines – 11 are in late stages of testing, and 5 are being used in a limited way (there’s overlap between these two groups)

WorkCompCentral is hosting a free webinar focused on the impact of COVID19 on Florida’s workers’ compensation system and stakeholders. The Registration is here; the webinar is tomorrow, September 29 at noon Pacific, 3 Eastern.

Lots more going on – will keep you posted.

What does this mean for you?

Wear a mask. Properly! over your nose AND mouth.

Thanks to Brad James for the reminder. 

 


Sep
25

Friday catch up

Pre-existing conditions, drug development, COVID-related GI problems, and marketing screwups…

First up, pre-existing conditions

Yesterday President Trump issued an executive order affirming “it is the official policy of the United States government to protect patients with pre-existing conditions.”

Well, yeah. It is today, because the ACA/Obamacare – which specifically protects patients with pre-existing conditions – is the law of the land, despite dozens of GOP efforts to overturn it. 

Couple other key issues.

  1. Without legislation signed into law, the Federal government – and the President – can’t enforce a “policy”.
  2. The executive order wasn’t released, so we don’t know what it actually says.
  3. The Trump Administration backs a lawsuit that would overturn the ACA and thereby eliminate pre-existing condition protections. 

What this means – don’t watch what someone says, watch what they do.

For more details on GOP and Democratic healthcare plans, click here.

Super-useful research on healthcare prices paid by private healthplans – kudos to RAND for updating their ongoing analysis. RAND compares prices paid by privately insurers – including work comp – to Medicare, allowing you to compare relative prices for individual facilities.

Thanks to Michael Costello for the link.

One takeaway – HCA hospitals are pretty expensive…(you can find prices for pretty much any hospital on RAND’s map)

Drug development

Pretty much all new drugs developed over the last decade relied on research you – the taxpayer – paid for.

That includes $6.5 billion of taxpayer dollars invested in remdesivir, one of the very few drugs found to be useful in treating COVID19.

COVID19

Alarming piece in JAMA yesterday reported patients with Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome caused by COVID19 are at significantly higher risk for major gastrointestinal problems. Pretty solid science behind the research.

An earlier article highlighted the opioid epidemic during the COVID19 pandemic; there are definite limitations to the research due to small sample size and possible clinician bias. With those provisos, key takeaways include:

Good news – J&J will start Phase 3 trials of its vaccine. Unlike some other vaccines, it is a single shot and can be stored in a refrigerator for up to 3 months (others require two shots and must be stored at ultracold temps).

Marketing malfeasance

And lastly, an excellent article in the Harvard Business Review about marketing in current times.  A critical takeaway – do NOT just talk about social responsibility; DO it. Kudos to Starbucks; after mandating that workers could not wear anything with Black Lives Matter while working, the company realized it screwed up and reversed course.

For the umpteenth time, if you do screw up, apologize fully and without dissembling.  None of these “I’m sorry if anyone is offended” non-apology apologies; from the article:

With “cancel culture” as pervasive as it is, a one-time reaction is as good as letting an issue get ahead of you. Instead, treat apologies or mea culpas as the first steps of an ongoing dialogue designed to bring about thoughtful and meaningful progress.

Here’s hoping the White Sox turn things around in the upcoming series with the Cubs…and your team wins this weekend.

Be well.


Sep
21

The most ridiculous thing I ever heard.

You Bet Your Life was a 1940’s radio quiz show featuring comedian Groucho Marx; contestants vied for prizes and cash.

If you or your family members have pre-existing medical conditions, the election is a reprise of the show – Republicans want to end coverage for pre-ex, and Democrats will keep that coverage in place.

If the Trump Administration’s Texas lawsuit backed by Republican Attorneys General succeeds, you can lose coverage for pre-existing conditions if you change healthplans, switch jobs, move, marry, divorce, or have a child. If Trump and Republicans win the case in Texas;

Briefly, Republican Attorneys General have sued to overturn the ACA, and the Trump Administration is aggressively supporting the suit.  The Trump Administration and AGs’ claim the entire law must be thrown out because the individual mandate — a penalty imposed on people who chose to remain uninsured – was killed by the Republican Congress in 2017.

In so doing, it would end protections for those with pre-existing conditions.

Make no mistake, if Trump et al win the suit and you have to change health insurance plans, you are at real risk of losing coverage  – or having to pay so much you can’t afford it.

Despite President Trump’s assertions, there is No Republican plan to assure those with hypertension, diabetes, a history of heart disease, cancer, anxiety disorder, or any other health condition will be able to afford health insurance.

If you just won lotto, you’re all set. If not, you’re screwed.

Ignore Trump’s claims that there is a replacement plan in the works because:

What they do have is bait-and-switch.

As Groucho would say about the Republican claim they’ll cover your pre-ex;

What does this mean for you?

If you or a family member have a pre-existing condition, this election is about you.

If you aren’t sure, here’s a list.

And if you think you can hide your condition, you can’t. 


Sep
18

Friday catch up; lots doing in workers’ comp

A very busy week indeed – here’s what happened.

MedRisk’s management changes

Long-time CEO Mike Ryan has stepped up to Executive Chair, and President Ken Martino is moving up to CEO. Mike has led the organization as President for more than 7 years. Founder and Chair Shelley Boyce named Mike CEO several years ago. I know Shelley, Ken and Mike very well.

MedRisk’s annual growth has averaged over 20% for the last decade. The company now employs 1,200 people, all located here in the US.

There’s no question MedRisk, perhaps the most successful company in the work comp services sector is in very good hands. (MedRisk is an HSA consulting client)

Mental health in the workplace – Great take on the big increase in workplace stress from HomeCare Connect’s Teresa Williams in today’s WorkCompWire.  Teresa notes that the percentage of adults with depression or anxiety has tripled over the last year. Her piece has helpful recommendations that employers:

  • list what they are doing to protect employees
  • be honest and straightforward about the employer’s financial situation
  • refer workers to trusted sources for information on COVID – NOT YouTube videos from random cranks
  • keep in mind that younger workers seem more vulnerable to stress than we older folks.

Progress in bringing science to claims handling

Congratulations to Gallagher Bassett’s Jeffrey Austin White and colleagues – GB’s Treatment Quality Index (TQI) was named Insurtech Initiative of the Year. The Index, coupled with Clinical Guidance, identifies which claims would benefit from what type of clinical attention and when to apply it.

There’s a lot of really good thinking behind TQI; it addresses one of the toughest challenges faced by claims handlers.

Innovate or else.

Coincidentally, GB’s Gary Anderberg PhD penned a terrific piece on what we have learned and can learn from COVID.  One of his 5 takeaways:

COVID has cast a strong light on the fact that we always act on imperfect, half developed information, that all decisions are provisional, that updating your data constantly and rigorously is not a luxury.

(GB is not an HSA client)

Gary’s piece came the same day the Harvard Business Review published a though-provoking article on innovation…noting one huge retailer spent 18 months developing and implementing curb-side pickup. This went pretty much nowhere…until COVID.

Substitute “telemedicine” for “curbside pickup” and “workers’ comp insurer” for “retailer” and you will learn a lot about the cost of not innovating.

What does this mean for you?

Great companies succeed by delivering the service customers don’t even know they want.


Sep
10

The Trump Healthcare plan explained – briefly

Yesterday we discussed Presidential candidate Joe Biden’s healthcare plan.

Today we’ll do the same for President Trump’s healthcare plan, which was promised to be ready before the upcoming election…

Five times this year President Trump has promised he will unveil a replacement for “Obamacare”. As of this writing, I have not been able to locate any such replacement plan documentation, web pages, policy statements or plan descriptions other than a couple described below. If you have any details, please share in the comments section below.

It’s not just me – Forbes wasn’t able to locate the President’s plan.

So, if you are looking for a brief explanation – you can stop reading here.

For those who want more detail, here it is.

Unfortunately it appears the White House’s healthcare page has not been updated since 2017 so we will have to rely on public pronouncements and speeches.

Trump’s campaign site does have a list of objectives, but no actual plan, policy description, or details on how these will be met:

This has made it rather difficult to analyze Trump’s plan, so we will have to use the President’s pronouncements to assume what his plan will be. Please note that wherever possible I have cited official White House or Trump Administration sources below.

Pre-existing conditions

The President has repeatedly stated that his plan will require “health insurance companies to cover all preexisting conditions for all customers,” including during a press briefing in early August. In that briefing, Trump stated:

Over the next two weeks, [emphasis added] I’ll be pursuing a major executive order requiring health insurance companies to cover all pre-existing conditions for all customers. That’s a big thing. I’ve always been very strongly in favor — we have to cover pre-existing conditions. So we will be pursuing a major executive order, requiring health insurance companies to cover all pre-existing conditions for all of its customers.

This has never been done before, but it’s time the people of our country are properly represented and properly taken care of.

[note – requiring health insurers to cover pre-ex conditions is imbedded in the ACA (sometimes referred to as Obamacare) and is the law of the land today as that provision of the ACA remains in effect.] source cited is US Dept of Health and Human Services, part of the Trump Administration

Takeaway – taking the President at his word, any new healthcare plan will provide coverage for pre-existing conditions. We do not know if the Trump Healthcare Plan will allow insurers to charge extra for that coverage, or limit coverage to some dollar amount. (that is not allowed under the ACA)

Medicaid changes

Trump has sought to end Medicaid expansion, change funding, and institute work requirements. While these all sound good in sound bites, like many complex issues things sound a lot less good when you peel back the curtain.

Ending the expansion of Medicaid would crush hospital financials, especially in rural, western, midwestern and southern states.  In many areas Medicaid is a critical funding source for facilities; those states that have expanded Medicaid (including deep red Oklahoma) would be in dire straits if the rug was pulled out from under them.

The President has pushed hard to change the way Medicaid is funded to a “block grant” method.  Essentially a block grant is a fixed amount of funding; this would replace part or all of the current funding which is based on a percentage of expenses.

Simple in concept, this is much harder to implement, and completely unsuited to our current situation where Medicaid enrollment is rapidly growing due to the fallout from COVID. We haven’t heard much about block grants of late from the President, so not sure if they are still under consideration.

The same is true for work requirements. Many low income folks don’t have internet access, which is required to submit the detailed documentation required under state Medicaid work requirements. Then they need reliable transportation to get to work – which many don’t have. And there are few jobs available these days in many states due to COVID.

Takeaway – Trump wants to end Medicaid expansion, change its funding mechanism, and require some recipients to work. It is highly doubtful any of this will happen.

Drug prices

The President has authored several executive orders around drug prices, but didn’t follow through on actually implementing those orders.

Trump’s move appeared to be intended to force pharma manufacturers to the bargaining table, but that hasn’t happened. Despite Trump’s statement that he would take unilateral action if pharma didn’t cooperate with him by August 25, he didn’t follow thru on that threat.

More troubling, pharma execs don’t know anything about any meeting or discussion.

Takeaway – no significant action to control drug prices is likely.

What does this mean for you?

It’s really hard to say. 

 


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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