Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Feb
7

Our healthcare system is breaking, part 4

This is the fourth attempt to warn you about the impending disaster facing all of us. 

Our incredibly dysfunctional healthcare system is collapsing, falling apart as thousands of highly-experienced and very well-trained critical staff leave care provider roles.

Two national nursing experts:

  • nurses who are inexperienced are replacing those who retired or were enticed by financial incentives to become travel nurses.
  • So many older nurses have quit, and younger nurses are at the bedside.

Hospitals are turning to traveling staff, costing facilities 4 to 5 times more than full-time workers. In response, and in a classic “treat the symptom while ignoring the problem” move some well-intentioned but pretty clueless elected officials are trying to pass a bill that would restrict traveling staff agencies’ pricing.

That is both pointless and pathetic. It reflects those officials’ paying attention to healthcare executives while ignoring what’s happening to care workers on front lines.

Instead our Representatives should be:

  • confronting those who are lying about COVID and vaccines,
  • using every tool and lever they have to support health care workers,
  • implementing financial penalties for illegitimate vaccine refusers in the form of higher premiums, copays, and deductibles.

It’s even worse at long-term care and rehab facilities…and it has undoubtedly gotten worse since those data were collected back in June 2021. And it’s happening in Florida, California, and Indiana – and in your state too.

Here’s why. And no, it’s not vaccine mandates.

From a great piece in The Baltimore Sun:

The great “financialization” of the health care industry has finally trickled down. Capitalism and the unfettered and unfiltered drive for the dollar has degraded the nursing profession in many regards. The historic exploitation of nurses to increase productivity and reduce costs, worsened by the pandemic, has led to a historic nursing shortage being faced today. [emphasis added]

This is the macro, structural driver – the unbound drive for profits..

COVID – and more specifically disinformation and vaccine resistance – has greatly accelerated and deepened the crisis. 

The multiple waves of COVID and the relentless flood of disinformation and lies have crushed the life out of nurses and healthcare workers, each successive wave burying healthcare workers ever deeper until many can see no escape.  Nurses are at much higher risk for suicide than most other workers.

Experienced, trained, passionate and skilled nurses and healthcare workers are leaving patient care.

What does this mean for you?

Sooner or later you will bring a family member to a hospital.

The staff will be less experienced, less skilled, less knowledgeable and less able to provide care.

Lies and disinformation have consequences.

 


Feb
3

Stuff you should know

In my ongoing effort to help you, dear reader, stay informed and on top of important stuff, I have this email folder titled “Blog Fodder” wherein I park news items worthy of your attention.

Here’s the fodder filling the folder these days…

Cash assistance = potentially smarter kids

A really interesting – and important – study found that babies of mothers that had received cash assistance had increased brain activity when compared to mom’s without cash assistance. From the study…

The resultant brain activity patterns have been shown to be associated with the development of subsequent cognitive skills.

WCRI’s Annual confab will include a session on Drug Formularies and the impact thereof. Register for the meeting here.

The good folks at Ametros collaborated on a study assessing CMS’ denial of payments for work comp-related claims. Evidently some folks thought this didn’t happen…turns out it does. Extrapolating from a random sample, researchers estimate CMS denied 36 thousand claims annually from 2018 to 2020.

Hear all about it in their February 15 webinar; register here.  And download the report here.

COVID good news.

From the NYT, the CDC released a study showing:

[boosters] are 90 percent effective against hospitalization with the [Omicron] variant, the agency reported. Booster shots also reduced the likelihood of a visit to an emergency department or urgent care clinic. The extra doses were most effective against infection and death among Americans aged 50 and older…

How effective for us oldsters?

VERY..unvaccinated Americans between 50 and 64 were 44 times more likely to end up in the hospital with Covid than those in the age group who were vaccinated and received a booster shot.

And really good news; from Charles Gaba, the uninsured rate for U.S. population was 8.9% for the third quarter of 2021 (July – September 2021), down from 10.3% for the last quarter of 2020 – corresponding to roughly 4.6 million more people with coverage over that time period.


Feb
2

Acquisitions and takeaways therefrom, Part 2

Yesterday we dove into the Paradigm-HomeCare Connect transaction and opined on the whats and whys. Today the TRISTAR-Risico deal is up for discussion.

Background

TRISTAR is a mid-tier national TPA, known for its work with employers and public entities. TRISTAR focused on workers’ comp for most of the time I’ve known the company, although of late it has grown its non-work comp services; Auto and liability now account for almost 30% of TRISTAR’s business.

Q&A

I caught up with President Tom Veale via email, here’s our Q&A…

  1. MCM – there’s a lot of overlap in the companies’ target industries of ag and public entities; is TRISTAR looking to strengthen its presence in these markets?
    Tom – We like both industries and have a significant presence in both, especially in the west.
  2. MCM – I noted the emphasis on geography; how does adding more business in California’s Central Valley tie into TRISTAR’s strategy?
    Tom – The central valley is the breadbasket of America.  We love doing business there.  The Ross & Castillo firm gave us a great base to build from sixteen years ago.
  3. MCM – Re managed care offerings, what and how does RISICO managed care services add to TRISTAR’s capabilities?
    Tom – Risico has a great team of case management and bill review professionals that will strengthen our team in California.  They also have a team of network developers and managers who will significantly expand our capabilities.  Total Managed Care will be integrated into TRISTAR Managed Care.
  4. MCM – You noted the cultural fit.  Can you provide more color around that?
    Tom – Bill and Steve built a company that operates like an extended family in many ways.  They take care of each other and in doing so, take care of their clients injured workers.  We strive to do the same at TRISTAR.  Being privately held, both of us can make the long-term investments required in our industry today – not having to worry about quarterly earnings, borrowing covenants and the like.

We then got into a discussion of what’s happening with TPAs, which look to me to be one of the only sectors of the work comp industry that is growing.

Tom’s views on what’s happening with TPAs and why…

  • I think WC TPAs are consolidating.
  • The number of claims keeps dropping for most employers – and has for twenty years. Improved safety practices and automation are the two big culprits. A while ago you talked about the industry shrinking – I think it was 2 to 3% a year. We have seen that as our average client with stable operations has less new and less open claims today than five years ago.
  • The increasing cost of operating a TPA is becoming painful for many. Real SOC1 and 2’s, carrier oversight, IT costs, staff costs lead the way. Your (and others) shining the light on some predatory TPA practices has been painful for many bad actors. The industry will be smaller, and hopefully better in the long run.

The net

TRISTAR is a consolidator, and this latest transaction is strategically sensible. It adds depth in a key market sector and a key geographic area for TRISTAR, while also building TRISTAR’s internal managed care operation.

Tomorrow – other big doings in the TPA space.

What does this mean for you?

Watch what the smart people are doing. 


Feb
1

Acquisitions & takeaways therefrom, part 1

Two recent acquisitions and one possible transaction provide insight into investors’ views of the workers’ comp services sector.

Spoiler takeaway – Size is good; a) up to a point, b) as long as the additions strengthen management, add solid revenue and are strategic.

Paradigm acquires HomeCare Connect and TRISTAR acquires Risico.

Paradigm Outcomes’ acquisition of HomeCare Connect makes a ton of sense – as does TRISTAR’s purchase of Risico. We’ll dive into the first today, the second tomorrow, and the possible transaction later this week.

HomeCare Connect provides home care, DME, prosthetics and other services to workers with significant injuries…a population exactly the same as Paradigm’s. By internalizing these services, Paradigm:

  • gains control over a key part of the care continuum, thereby streamlining communications and service delivery;
  • adds strong management talent (I’m a big fan of HCC leaders Vonesa Wenzel, Teresa Williams and Tim Rametta);
  • increases HomeCare Connect’s revenue by funneling Paradigm cases through HCC; and
  • adds significant revenues (my guess is $60 million+…but that’s just a guess) to its top line and earnings to the bottom line.

I spoke with Paradigm CEO John Watts, here are a few quotes from that conversation, takeaways that point to Paradigm’s evolution and strategy.

    • “almost every case we manage involves durable medical equipment and home healthcare”
    • With (those services managed in-house, “it is seamless to the injured worker and provides more continuity as we are able to stay on the case longer.”
    • “HCC has very strong leadership that is already thinking about other opportunities…they have a really interesting solutions for prosthetics…”
    • Paradigm has “historically has dealt with high-severity claims, usually in the $1.5 to $2 million range.We are expanding the types of claims we work with to include lower-severity cases including those that need DME and HHC…HomeCare Connect’s solutions are a key part of our  service set…”
    • “As we continue to evolve our value-based solutions, we will extend our focus to events that are more episodic in nature…shoulder injuries for example…where our focus on return to work and reducing cost are essential value drivers for the market.”

Paradigm is clearly focused on capturing more of the services delivered to its current patient population, while moving “down the severity ladder” to handle less severely injured patients.

And…the final quote is pretty interesting as it implies expanding beyond fee-for-service into value-based care and financial models. 

I’d be remiss if I didn’t add what I see as one of the bigger benefits of the acquisition for Paradigm – HCC execs and staff get workers’ comp, understand the critical nuances and needs of front-line adjusters and case managers, and also know what drives decision makers.

From Vonesa Wenzel:

    • “It is all about the integrity of your organization and that you can be trusted by your clients to do the right thing for them, and also for the injured worker. You have to earn your client’s trust.”
    • “It’s important to understand that expectations of what folks need at the desk level may be different than corporate level decision makers.”

 What does this mean for you?

Focusing on your end users’ needs, wants, problems, and foibles = success.


Jan
31

COVID, Science, and “Natural” Immunity

There’s a good deal of confusion out there about “natural” immunity and COVID.

Here are the facts.

first, there’s no such thing as “artificial” immunity. ALL immunity is natural…whether one is infected by COVID or gets a vaccination, the body has a natural response.

Virologist Stuart Neil: 

all a vaccine does is prime the immune system with a dead pathogen, a protein (or part of a protein from it), or a related but harmless pathogen so that the body can respond so much more quickly when the actual pathogen is actually encountered…

second, if you want to protect against a COVID infection, would you rather:

a) get a vaccine that is FDA approved, has been proven safe and effective, or:

b) get infected with COVID.

Sure, there can be side effects from COVID vaccines (a family member had a pretty nasty albeit brief headache and chill episode after his/her second Moderna  jab, but I had no side effects from any of my three Pfizer shots). Balance that against the potentially much worse illness – or death – from a real COVID infection, and the choice is pretty obvious.

third, multiple recent studies prove that previous COVID infections are NOT as effective at preventing future COVID infections as are vaccines. Summary findings from two:

This study “found that the chances of these adults testing positive for COVID-19 were 5.49 times higher in unvaccinated people who had COVID-19 in the past than they were for those who had been vaccinated for COVID and had not had an infection before.”

And this one “indicates that if you had COVID-19 before and are not vaccinated, your risk of getting re-infected is more than two times higher than for those who got vaccinated after having COVID-19.”

Finally, if you were unlucky enough to have contracted COVID AND smart enough to get fully vaccinated, you’re even less likely to get COVID again.

Sure, there’s a LOT of misinformation out there, including this total distortion/misstatement/nonsense (just one – it was conducted BEFORE “most persons had received additional or booster COVID-19 vaccine doses to protect against waning immunity. (Actual study is here.)

But hey, if you want to fight science, go right ahead. Just remember what happened to Wile E Coyote when he denied gravity’s existence…

Oh, and if you do fall off the cliff, don’t get upset if healthcare workers are less than sympathetic.

What does this mean for you?

Get vaccinated. Wear a mask.

and a hat tip to Bill F for alerting me to the issue!


Jan
27

COVID update

Two years (almost) to the day and we’re still talking about &^%$(*# COVID…

OK, here’s the latest.

DATA

73 million confirmed cases in the U.S.

876 thousand COVID-related deaths.

that’s 12 deaths per thousand cases.

that, dear reader, is a very high case mortality rate.

Here’s a comparison of death rates (NOT case mortality rates) for flu vs COVID.

Long-term impact

A study published in JAMA of one-year outcomes for patients who survived ICU treatment in Holland found:

  • 74.3% reported physical symptoms,
  • 26.2% reported mental symptoms, and
  • 16.2% reported cognitive symptoms.

More specifically, patients self-reported issues with fatigue, mental symptoms, depression, PTSD, anxiety, and indications of cognitive failure.

NCCI’s webinar on COVID’s impact on work comp is up for viewing here.  Highly recommended.

Vaccination data

Excellent ongoing reporting from the Kaiser Family Foundation; latest data is here.

Overall 73% of us are vaccinated

Couple head-slapping statistics…

Republicans used to be the rational party, or at least the party of rationality. That’s a stunning disparity.

Here’s why the unvaxxed are unvaxxed…

What does this mean for you?

Get vaccinated and boosted, and wear a mask. COVID doesn’t care about your political affiliations.

 


Jan
25

(Most) private insurers aren’t controlling costs

The prices private insurers have paid to hospitals and physicians have increased much faster than prices paid by Medicare and Medicaid.

And it’s not because providers are cost-shifting.

Those are the main takeaways from a just-released CBO report; here’s what CBO said (emphasis added):

  • commercial insurers pay much higher prices for hospitals’ and physicians’ services than Medicare FFS does.
  • In addition, the prices that commercial insurers pay hospitals are much higher than hospitals’ costs.
  • Paying higher prices to providers can have several effects.
    • First, it can increase insurers’ spending on claims, which may lead to higher premiums, greater cost-sharing requirements for patients...
    • Second, it can increase the federal government’s subsidies for health care .
    • And third, it can slow the growth of wages.
  • The share of providers’ patients who are covered by Medicare and Medicaid is not related to higher prices paid by commercial insurers. That finding suggests that providers do not raise the prices they negotiate with commercial insurers to offset lower prices paid by government programs (a concept known as cost shifting).

Ok, that said, these are findings based on national data…things are different market to market.

I’d note that price increases in workers’ comp correlates with states’ Medicaid expansion. That is, price inflation is generally much higher in states that did NOT expand medicaid.

More on that here.

What does that mean for you?

Private insurers aren’t doing their job very well.

 


Jan
24

Paul Carroll of Insurance Thought leadership penned (actually typed) a great piece on automakers’ rapidly growing focus on insurance.

Briefly, auto makers want to capture more – especially ongoing – revenue from the vehicles they sell. Way back when, they sold cars and spare parts to dealers – and that was it.

Then they got into financing; GMAC and other financial arms became huge moneymakers for the Big Three as loan originators and lease financiers.  We’ll leave aside the major mistakes the finance entities made (sub-prime loans, 2008, the Great Recession…) noting their foreign competitors were way less dumb.

Now, manufacturers are going all-in on insurance. There’s a bunch of reasons this makes sense; paraphrasing Paul and adding a couple of my thoughts:

  • manufacturers are building telematics into cars to monitor driving behavior (and other stuff) – essentially this really helps third-party auto insurers…at great cost to the manufacturers.
  • telematics can help manufacturers build safer/less risky cars, which they would then benefit from in the form of higher insurance profits – but only if the manufacturer is the insurer.
  • safer/less risky cars use fewer spare parts…which cuts into manufacturers’ revenues…which can be offset by profits from insurance.
  • buyers often finance their purchases at the dealer…so it’s pretty easy to package insurance with leases and sales.

GM, Ford, Toyota, Porsche, Tesla are all in the insurance business. Rivian (the upstart electric truck/SUV manufacturer) is also offering insurance (I have one on order). Most are offering to combine auto with home and other insurance.

Notably, Rivian is explicitly detailing it’s strategy…

Rivian Insurance integrates with our connected vehicle platform and suite of safety features to bring you tailored, data-driven coverage. We understand our vehicle, our technology and our repair costs better than anyone. Working as one team with Rivian Service and Parts helps us lower premiums and get you back on the road with quality repairs.

What does this mean for you?

If you’re an auto insurer, agent, or broker the time to plan is now.


Jan
21

COVID, Comp, Claims and Costs

Yesterday NCCI and several state bureaus and research organizations put on an excellent webinar on COVID’s’ impact on Workers’Compensation. The analysis covered 2020 data from 45 states. The full report is available here.

Quick takes

In 2020 about 80,000 COVID claims were accepted in the 45 states at an average cost of $7,800 per claim.

There’s a LOT of interstate variation, with COVID accounting for 1% of claims in Montana and 29% in Kentucky.  The high rate in KY was somewhat higher than rates in MN; in all other states except NJ COVID claims accounted around 15% or less of total claims. The high percentages appear to be due to presumption laws which were quite broad in Kentucky and Minnesota.

Median was 7.2%…

Aa a percentage of incurred loss, COVID accounted for about 1.7% of incurred losses in the median state. Again there was a wide range, from 0.2% (Alabama) to 12% (D.C.)

COVID claims are diabolically opposite from “regular” work comp claims in that 88% of COVID claims are lost time claims compared to about 2% for “regular” claims. COVID claims are also closing earlier than “regular” claims.

There were 13% fewer Non-COVID claims in 2020 than in 2019; recall there’s been a long-standing annual structural decline in claims of about 3.8%.

The net is non-COVID claims dropped three times more than expected…correlation is not causation, but in this case it’s darn close.

NCCI used polls for audience reaction; the first questions was how impactful COVID direct losses will be on the WC system moving forward.

The responses were puzzling at best.  Clearly COVID claims have NOT been costly – far from it. In 2020 COVID claims accounted for $630 million in incurred losses – just 1/50th of total incurred losses.

Yet almost half (!!!) of respondents said COVID direct losses would be at least moderately impactful.

That, dear reader, makes zero sense.

  • The math alone doesn’t support that belief, and workers’ comp folks are supposed to get math.
  • There hasn’t been any material change in presumption laws, so that can’t be it.
  • But there’s been far too much Chicken Little-ing about COVID.

My guess is that Chicken Little-ing has somehow convinced many that something that a) will be transitory and b) hasn’t been costly and c) is getting ever loss costly to treat will somehow become a far bigger problem than it is.

What does this mean for you?

C’mon people. Stop with the catastrophizing.

So, one really cool thing about the webinar – almost all of the presenters were women. Gotta love that.


Jan
20

Thursday catch-up

Between doing grandfatherly duties (hanging out with our granddaughter), business obligations and snow plowing, it’s been a busy week.

here’s what’s up.

COVID stuff

Yeah, like you, I was hoping this pandemic would be just an unpleasant memory by now. Far from it.

Omicron has substituted transmissibility for lethality, so far more of us will catch COVID, but far fewer of us will get very sick or die. BUT – and it’s a huge BUT, the net impact is more of us are getting sicker.

And the impact on healthcare facilities and the increasingly burnt-out people who work in those facilities is the worst it’s been since COVID arrived on our shores.

Another of those knock-on effects of COVID…hospitals can’t discharge patients because a) rehab facilities don’t have room, b) there aren’t enough home care providers to hep the patient recover at home. So, patients that COULD be discharged – thus freeing up beds for sicker people – aren’t.

Which leads to more stress on hospitals and hospital staff.

Side note – in case you missed it, the US has lost 10,000 ICU beds over the last year – because there aren’t enough healthcare workers to care for ICU patients.

Last week saw a new peak in hospital admits for patients with COVID… most troubling is the rapid rise in kids 4 and under that have been admitted.

There’s been a lot of discussion about patients admitted with COVID vs patients admitted due to COVID. This needs unpacking.

Lots of us have health issues, which are called “morbidities”…asthma, high blood pressure, obesity, diabetes and the like. Very broadly, the more you have, the worse it is, because one exacerbates the other(s).

COVID is in that category...so while a patient may not have a bad case of Omicron, that patient’s immune system now has to deal with a respiratory (and perhaps other) problem(s) on top of being overweight, older, hypertensive and pre-diabetic.  The result is the patient is in the hospital longer, takes longer to recover, and full recovery is less certain.

About those “co-morbidities”…some irresponsible media types butchered CDC Director Rochelle Wolensky MD’s comments on COVID and co-morbidities. 

One such media type tweeted “CDC director admits over 75% of Covid deaths had at least 4 pathological conditions (comorbidities). Since the total death rate is 0.27% this means healthy people have a 0.0% death risk.”

That is NOT what Dr Wolensky said. She was referring to COVID deaths among vaccinated individuals – NOT all COVID deaths.

Her point was that vaccinations protect us from COVID, but people in very poor health are still vulnerable; most of the vaccinated people who died were in very poor health BEFORE they got COVID.

Sheesh. This isn’t that hard people…

Education!

Registration for CWCI’s annual meeting is now open here; March 8 is the date. As of now it is live and will be streamed as well. Walnut Creek is the location, and attendees will hear solid research on the impact of COVID plus a study on injured worker access to care.

Today NCCI and several state regulators are discussing the impact of COVID – you can register for the webinar here. You can download the team’s report here.

Lots of great information. presented in an accessible format.

What does this mean for you?

Don’t retweet unless you check the actual source information, because you may look like an idiot.

 

 


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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