My posting service sends out posts at 10 am eastern, so I decided to hold off on flooding your inbox with reportage from WCRI’s annual confab and spread things out.

Today we’re reporting on a panel discussion re the future of the workplace post-COVID (let’s HOPE we are “post” COVID)…[Ed note – these are paraphrases; corrections welcomed and apologies for errors]

Denise Algire, director of risk initiatives and national medical director for Albertsons Companies (and a good friend); Dr. Craig Ross, regional medical director for Liberty Mutual; and Dan Allen, executive director for the Construction Industry Service Corporation, a non-profit labor management association were the panelists.

Dan Allen – The vaccine requirements have been very well received by workers in construction – strong educational outreach, not a “hammer”, rather focused on getting the word out – safety is the imperative – healthcare demands all workers are vaccinated, so workforce depends on being being safe and being vaccinated to work in healthcare and many academic projects.

Construction workers are essential workers and are often right next to each other, so separating by 6′ is tough – collaboration is the key.

Denise Algire – Albertson’s relied on education and empowerment – did not have a vaccine requirement unless required by the state.

Long Covid –

Dr Ross – post acute symptom covid is considered a disability, so think carefully about how you approach this. There are 200 different symptoms in 20 different body systems…no consensus regarding diagnostic criteria or treatment for for Post COVID conditions (PCC). A recent study published in Nature compared post covid patients to a control group – one key finding was an increased risk for CV (cardiac) complications – most significant was myocarditis – 5x greater incidence in covid patients. [I think this is the link.]

Dan Allen – be ready to work with employees struggling with long COVID, there’s a very long list of potential symptoms/conditions…the key question is how do you address those? Employers must work with occ medicine specialists to better understand these symptoms and potential impact thereof.  mental health resources-  take frequent breaks – listen to understand where the patients are coming from – not as straightforward as our tupical WC claim.

Dan – there’s no WFH (work from home) in construction which leads to more risk of getting exposed on the job – to address this, construction sites have implemented scattered job site times; come early, come late hand washing stations, and mask regulations increased that safety.

Denise – grocery workers were essential workers as well – Albertsons’ put together a clinical team, realized no one size fits all – key is listen to employees and balance that with collaboration – looking at teaming and ensuring folks working on stuff together are at the office at the same time – going forward work  will be a hybrid approach –

Also – we need to keep re-assessing as COVID persists as the situaiton changes  – and may likely continue to change

Craig Ross DO – business needs to continue to invest in safety and safe workers

Dan – safety and health care critical – union training on these issues is paid for out of each worker’s hourly pay – “right to work” states kill apprentice and other training programs which strongly advocate for safety…Construction results in over 20% of workplace deaths in the US in an industry with <6% of workers.

The construction work force is aging and unless you train them well you’ll get more injuries. The great resignation started before the pandemic – don’t overwork and overexert the workers you do have.

Craig – going forward we will likely see increased repetitive trauma due to WFH  – calls for increased employee assistance.

Any changes in claim composition?

Dr Ross – claims composition didn’t change except more severe injuries – more severe multiple body part claims…there wasn’t a delay in care, telemedicine ramped up early and seems to be used in specific situations especially mental health. There have been very few vaccination claims to date; and multiple studies suggest it reduces risk of long covid.

Dan – suicide rates in construction are highest of any other industry – 53 workers/100k…why – big macho thing – injured workers don’t report injuries – working on mental health days, collaboration w businesses – have a foreman who talk to workers – let them know you care about them – talk to the workers so they can share issues.

Addressing the use of opiates and finding alternatives has been a big help – sometimes there’s a little bridge from using opiates as treatment to patients using them to address stress. Hope is we’ve learned from COVID and you’ll see safer workers and safer worksites, suicide presentation, calisthenics before work…there’s dollars for training in the infrastructure bill for minorities to help them get introduced to careers in construction.

Misclassification is a huge issue for insurers, workers, and builders – “cheat to compete” – they take advantage of immigrants – put em into jobs, unskilled, untrained, misclassified workers,  cheap untrained unsafe labor means legitimate contractor loses that job  construction is substandard and project has problems.

What does this mean for you?

Behavioral health was my big takeaway...be open, let workers know they are not alone and you’re open to listening, that there is no stigma.

As one who’s dealt with panic attacks for 25 years, I completely agree – yeah I get them, yeah they suck, and yeah you’ll get through this and we are here for you.

It is SO GREAT to see faces, shake hands, smile and see it returned, reconnect with colleagues and friends after a looooong two years.

Scroll to the bottom for impacts on P&C and work comp…

Gallagher Bassett’s Russ Pass opened the conference – full disclosure I’m a big Russ Pass fan; he’s incredibly thoughtful, measured, and knowledgeable, and WCRI is lucky indeed to have Russ as Chair.

Dr. Bob Hartwig dove into the impacts of COVID on the work comp line….I had several cups of coffee so felt almost ready to keep up with the estimable Dr. Hartwig.

Inflation…

is at a 40 year high, started by supply chain issues, then exacerbated by fiscal/monetary policy, wage increases and now Russia’s war on Ukraine and the impact on energy prices. Inflation is driven by price increases in energy, food, vehicles and “core goods” — NOT from services including medical care.

Oil is going up and down – the China Shenzhen shutdown has cut prices quite a bit as demand falls (that’s my take, not Dr Hartwig’s). We are also a LOT less vulnerable to oil prices now as cars are twice as efficient as they were in 1980.

Hartwig noted that as bad as things are today – they really aren’t that bad.  As one who graduated college into high inflation and high unemployment, I heartily agree.

Dr Hartwig noted there’s a 20-25% chance that we enter a recession within the next year…although others think the chances are higher than that.  that would have a MAJOR impact on workers’ comp, as employment would drop and we might well see attendant claiming-related behavior.

Hartwig also noted that reserve adequacy might suffer if inflation stays high for a some time.  Not sure I see that – WC is WAY over-reserved today so there’s plenty of dollars in the kitty to make up for inflationary pressures.

Part of the driver of the current labor issue is a lot of people have been in and out of the workforce due to illness. That said, about half of businesses are having a tough time filling jobs…as only 82.2% of those in their prime working years in the workforce that’s likely a much bigger driver. Dr Hartwig opined that problems with childcare and fear of contracting COVID along with unemployment benefits are major contributors.

Wages went up over the last year, with average hourly wages up 10.6% from 2/2021 to 2/2022.  That’s a lot, especially compared to recent increases which were mostly in the 2 – 3% range for the last decade or so. (Ed note – I’m really encouraged by this – great to see folks in lower wage industries like hospitality get big boosts in their income – well deserved!)

More info…

• Non-farm payroll is back to where it would have been if COVID never happened – that is remarkable/historic/great,
• the “quits rate” seems to have leveled off,
• more of us are retiring – especially the 65 – 74 year olds,
• and more than half of the 55+ are now retired…(what’s wrong with the rest of us??)
  • that’s the first time this has ever happened – says Dr H.
• one of the biggest drivers of economic growth is…population growth. As we aren’t making babies like we used to, and for unfathomable reasons are severely limiting immigration – that’s a drag on the economy.

Impacts on P&C

COVID cut premium growth in half – BUT that was still much higher than COVID’s impact on th overall economy.

Work comp saw a 10% decline in premiums in 2020 (not including state funds) – by far the biggest decrease in P&C.

P&C investment yields were 2.6%, the lowest level in 60 years. As interest rates edge up, investment yields will increase.

The overall work comp combined ratio is projected to be 90 in 2021 after an 87 in the previous year. That, dear reader, is super-profitable compared to the line’s historical returns.

The brainiacs at CWCI presented the results of their latest research last week…video is here.

I’m a big fan of CWCI’s work because:

• it is super timely – much more so than any other research organization
• it covers almost all California claims
• CWCI’s researchers are very insightful and
• they explain the implications clearly and concisely.

Top takeaways…

COVID is one persistent bugger…the repeated peaks are driven by variants – reminding us that viruses evolve, adapt, and persist.

The major jump in January 2022 was driven by Omicron…January numbers were 13% higher than the previous peak – remember Delta?

That said, and yet another reminder – to date COVID claims have NOT been a major cost driver – far from it, and that’s primarily because COVID claims either A) didn’t incur any payments or B) didn’t incur significant medical spend..

[According to  CWCI’s Rena David, The majority of the “no medical or indemnity claims” may well be mostly those that were reported by the employer when there was a possibility a worker had COVID exposure but either the claim didn’t go forward or there wasn’t a positive test.]

While median costs for LT COVID claims with medical expenses were modest – and a lot lower than non-COVID claim costs, the gap narrowed considerably for claims at or about the 90th percentile for LT claims with medical expense.

BUT COVID claims were still less expensive for non-COVID claims – as if we needed more proof that COVID claims will not break the bank.

What does this mean for you?

As goes California, so goes the rest of us – just a little later.

Last week’s CWCI conference was – as usual – stuffed with useful information you can’t find anywhere else.

We’ll start off with this – Mark Schniepp PhD’s discussion of the state of the economy. Interesting takeaways indeed…

First up, consumer sentiment is not great – despite a booming jobs market, rising wages, low consumer debt and strong household finances including a solid savings rate, folks seem concerned about inflation. (note these data don’t account for the Russian war on Ukraine).

Second, jobs. There’s a giant number – as in a record – of job openings. This is pushing wages up – which I’d argue is a good thing, as the middle class’ wage increases have long lagged income increases among the super-rich. The lack of child care is a major factor – Dr Schniepp noted:

“among prime-age workers – those without children have fully returned to the workforce.”

I’m quite sure you, dear reader, know families that are constantly stressed by the lack of child care and the impact that has on work.

As one who graduated college at the height of the inflation back in 1980, when mortgage rates were in the teens and inflation wasn’t much lower, I get the concern about inflation.

That said, jobs were scarce indeed back then. So, compared to the early eighties, people are doing quite well, but IMO people are paying way too much attention to things like gas prices.

Gas accounts for just one out of every fifty dollars of personal spending…demonstrating once again that people are NOT rational.

The Russian War on Ukraine will likely drive some costs higher although we Americans are much less vulnerable than folks in Africa which rely on Ukrainian wheat and other grains.

Dr Schneipp does NOT expect inflation to persist, and noted that most key economic indicators are rising, consumer demand is strong, corporate profits are really high and business investment is surging.

The net…

We are not rational beings. The economy is doing quite well, you are probably doing pretty well (unless you can’t find child care), higher gas prices REALLY don’t affect you, and…you don’t live in Ukraine.

More to come tomorrow…