Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Jan
11

Physician dispensing in work comp – worse than you think

The good folks at NCCI just released research which focuses attention on what looks to be the fastest growing part of the work comp medical dollar – drugs dispensed by physicians.
The lead sentence in their annual update[opens pdf] on prescription drug costs puts it bluntly: “The volume of prescription drugs dispensed by physicians to workers compensation (WC) claimants has risen sharply in recent years–putting upward pressure on WC costs.” [emphasis added]
While that’s bad enough, the current situation is likely worse. Why? NCCI based their report on 2008 data. If the 2007 – 2008 trend (excluding California) continued for 2009/10, physician dispensed drugs accounted for 64% of total spend last year.
Between 07 and 08, physician dispensed drugs went from about 8% of drug spend to about 16%. Now, I don’t believe the trend continued for two more years; I also don’t believe it went down. Therefore, I’m betting physician dispensed drugs accounted for somewhere between a fifth and a quarter of drug spend in 2010.
While you’re digesting that, here are a few more factoids to ruin your lunch.
The study, authored by Barry Lipton, Chris Laws, and Linda Li and based on 2008 data, goes on to report:
physician dispensing has increased in most states, with particularly large increases seen in southeastern and central midwestern states
Georgia saw physician dispensed drugs hit about 30% of all drug costs, Florida hit about 45%, with Hawaii, Michigan, and Maryland all in the mid-to-upper twenties
– dispensing is increasing for new and old claims; my bet is the growth in dispensing the initial script means there will be a downstream growth in dispensed drugs.
I don’t believe all docs are just dispensing drugs to make more money. I do know the profits for docs and the dispensing companies can be enormous.
More on when, where, why, and how physician dispensing may be appropriate later this week.


Jan
10

Aetna work comp talent

My post earlier today re the changes at Aetna Workers’ Comp Access inspired several calls and emails from employers seeking information on the folks who were laid off, as they may have skills, experience, and expertise needed by work comp network and managed care firms.
I’m not – nor do I ever want to be – an employment counselor, but if anyone from AWCA wants to shoot me their resume I’ll pass it on to the interested parties.
Confidentiality assured – promise. I’ll vet the potential hirers and will pass on resumes only to those who appear ‘real’.
email me at infoAThealthstrategyassocDOTcom.


Jan
10

What’s up with Aetna’s work comp unit?

Last week several of the folks responsible for managing new business and existing clients for Aetna’s Work Comp unit were laid off. Not exactly a great way to start 2011.
This came after a year plus in which AWCA’s network customers were increasingly plagued by problems associated with poor provider data quality and provider relations issues, complicated by a lack of responsiveness from Aetna.
With that background, it’s not exactly surprising that AWCA cut its work force; without much to say to clients it didn’t make much sense to have a staff that was supposed to be doing the talking. I would note that the customer-facing staff were in the rather uncomfortable rock-and-a-hard-place position, stuck between Aetna’s networks ops staff and policies, and their work comp payer customers who weren’t getting the answers they wanted – or, quite frankly, deserved.
Originally, AWCA was set up as an individual business unit led by Pat Scullion. AWCA’s individual functions were separated out several years ago, and now reside in different operating units within mother Aetna. Furthermore, there is no one leader or advocate for the entire AWCA ‘program’ – provider relations, compliance, customer service, account management, IT – so the folks doing the work have other things to do, other things that may, or may not, be higher on the priority list.
Aetna’s work comp ‘network’ has been plagued with lousy provider data quality in several states for as long as I can recall; Pennsylvania among the most problematic. The problem manifests itself when employers post panels, or lists, of providers accepting workers comp, only to find some/many of the docs don’t take comp patients, aren’t at that address, don’t answer that phone number, and/or claim they aren’t in the AWCA network. The employer then complains to the insurer, who then calls the network – and in the case of AWCA, often to no avail.
What makes this interesting are the downstream implications for payers, other network vendors, and providers. Aetna is the defacto network – or a major part of the network – for Coventry in a couple dozen states. Many large payers – Liberty, AIG, Travelers, Sedgwick, Hartford – work with Aetna directly or through Coventry. It remains to be seen if the layoff is limited to customer-facing staff or there will be further changes at ‘AWCA’.
UPDATE – two sources called to let me know that AWCA has told some of their direct clients that they will no longer service them directly, as they are not large enough to merit a direct relationship with AWCA. Instead, these clients will have to access AWCA through another entity – usually Coventry.
That said, the termination of these professionals hasn’t been good news for AWCA’s clients. Some see this as the latest in the de-evolution of what had been a promising network alternative.
On a personal note, there’s some talent now on the street; companies looking for network ops and sales personnel may want to reach out to the (now former) AWCA people.


Jan
6

Why all the deals in the work comp space?

The investment community’s fascination with the work comp services space resulted in a half-dozen deals over the last couple of months, on top of several more earlier in 2010.
Which has led some to ask? Why this industry and why now?
The ‘macro’ answer to the ‘why now’ question has to do with the tax treatment of investments, the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, and a desire on the part of many owners to cash out before those cuts expired. While they didn’t, the work was still well under way by the time the final deal was cut so things just kept moving.
There’s also a LOT of money sloshing around in investors’ bank accounts waiting to be used, and lots of pressure on private equity firms to put that money to use.
The ‘micro’, or industry-specific answer is a little more complex.
First, private equity loves immature, technology-starved, process-heavy, decentralized businesses. By rolling up similar companies, investing in technology, standardizing processes and hiring strong leaders, owners can reap outsize rewards through increased efficiency, the removal of competitors, and lower cost structures.
Second, the comp industry has been moribund of late, stuck in the mud due to declining frequency, low claims volume, excess capacity (in insurance, claims administration, and related services) and a horrendous employment picture. But that’s about to turn. According to an analysis by JMP Securities, “For the 2010/2011 filing season, 13 states increased rates compared to 8 in the prior period. Importantly, rates are rising in some of the largest states including CA, FL, and IL (collectively 27% of nationwide workers’ comp premiums).”
Now that hiring is improving and injuries are trending up, investors expect to see significant organic growth. This growth may be somewhat artificial as it’s coming after several awful years, and will in all likelihood taper off a couple years out, but it’s growth nonetheless.
Third, many of the companies that populate the comp trade show floors were founded a couple decades ago by entrepreneurs, some of whom are now looking to take a few chips off the table. For those that have worked smart and hard, those chips have lots of zeros attached.
Fourth, over the last decade, TPAs (well, many TPAs) have changed their business model from making money from claims handling fees to making more money from managed care and claim service fees. This pumps up the top line and profits. The more aggressive TPAs have pushed beyond collecting fees and commissions from vendors to acquiring them outright, further enhancing their financials. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, as long as their customers know where their dollars are going.
What does this mean for you?
Make sure your contracts have a survivability or change in control clause.


Jan
5

Well, that didn’t take long – the GOP ‘rethinks’ its commitment

UPDATE – yesterday I reported on GOP House members’ commitment to cut a hundred billion from the discretionary spending this fiscal year (which, by the way, started October 1, 2010). After I posted this piece, the GOP reneged on the commitment, with aides to Speaker Boehner saying the $100 billion figure was ‘hypothetical’.
No, it wasn’t.
In the ‘Pledge to America’ the signatories said “We will roll back government spending to pre-stimulus, pre-bailout levels, saving us at least $100 billion in the first year alone.”
In a speech at the time of the midterm elections, Boehner himself committed to that number, saying “We’re ready to cut spending to pre-stimulus, pre-bailout levels, saving roughly $100 billion almost immediately.” (note Boehner’s website had the link up yesterday, it doesn’t work today.)
So why is this in a blog focused on health care?
Simple. The GOP has committed to overturning, or at the least de-funding, health reform. Not some of the Accountable Care Act – all of it.
That includes:
– the prohibition against medical underwriting that effectively prevents those of us with pre-existing conditions from obtaining individual coverage in most states.
the closing of the doughnut hole in Part D that will save seniors thousands on their drug bills
– the requirement (already in place) that insurers cover kids till age 26

– the requirement (already in place) that prohibits medical underwriting or pre-ex exclusion for kids
vouchers for less-well off folks to use to help cover the cost of insurance
– prohibition on lifetime maximum coverage limits
I find it…interesting that many of the same folks who passed Part D and its $16 trillion addition to the deficit in an attempt – successful at that – to woo seniors, would now want to upset seniors, and moms, and families by killing provisions that most voters like.
We’ll see.


Jan
4

Deals aplenty in work comp, and now news of one more…

The investment community finished 2010 in a frenzy of deal making – Odyssey sold York Claims to ABRY, Progressive Medical was bought by Stone Point, Genex bought Intracorp from CIGNA for stock, Sedgwick is buying SRS, Humana bought Concentra – and I’m sure there are others I’m forgetting. Now, just when you thought it was time to take a breath, along comes info that another deal is done.
Word[opens pdf] is that Genex has bought PT manager Network Synergy Group.
[note release came out after initial publication of this post]
NSG will operate as a separate organization under Genex with current leader John Hanselman staying on as NSG head.
How this will work at Genex is TBD; their current PT network provider is Universal SmartComp, whose President, Chris Feeney, has strong ties to Genex’ founders. I find it hard to believe Genex will switch their business from USC to NSG, but Genex wouldn’t have bought NSG unless there was some significant financial – or strategic – benefit.
This will be interesting to watch.
This is the latest in a series of ‘recent work comp space’ deals that involve Stone Point – who owns Genex, third party biller Stone River (and soon Progressive Medical), and a chunk of Sedgwick. Less recently, Stone Point acquired TPA Cunningham Lindsey and did a joint venture with broker Lockton to purchase Alexander Forbes International Risk Services (AFIRS), an international insurance broker. Stone Point, like ABRY Partners, is staking out a major position in the work comp services business, consolidating their holdings, adding service providers and rolling up TPA business while taking out competitors.
While the Genex-NSG deal is almost certainly one of the smallest in terms of valuation, it is yet another indication of the drive to increase top line revenues that appears to be a major driver of private equity’s work comp strategy.


Jan
4

What we won’t see from the new GOP budget hawks

Many of the Republicans in the House have committed to cutting discretionary spending this year by $100 billion. That’s a pretty big chunk out of the $477 billion total, and because the Federal fiscal year is well under way, this would amount to a thirty plus percent cut in current spending.
(to track how they’re doing, bookmark PolitiFact’s Pledge-O-Meter)
Leaving aside the obvious…difficulty in cutting almost a third of current non-military, non-entitlement or debt discretionary spending, I’m struck by the rather dramatic change demonstrated by this interest in cutting spending, especially as much of it comes from the same guys and gals who voted for the Medicare Part D program, the drug benefit with no dedicated financing, no offsets and no revenue-generators – the entire cost – which is now around sixteen trillion dollars – simply added to the federal budget deficit.
Heck, the fiscal fighters in the GOP could cut $62 billion this year alone just by canceling Part D – but wait, that would alienate seniors, whose votes are critical, and getting more so.
Among the hawks – now salivating at the chance to show their fiscal responsibility credentials – who voted in favor of an unfunded $16 trillion addition to the deficit are current Speaker Boehner, Barton of Texas, Cantor, Issa, Hoekstra, Hensarling, Nussle, fiscal hawk Ryan, Rohrabacher and LaHood.
We have a problem – a huge, and growing problem. Cutting a hundred billion from current non-military, non-entitlement, non-veterans, non-debt service spending is a great political sound bite. It’s also fiscally irresponsible.
If these politicians are really interested in cutting the deficit, they should kill Part D.


Jan
2

What’s up for 2011 – predictions for work comp in the Next Year

This always seems like a good idea in January, looks like a not-well-thought-thru idea in July, and by December morphs into a well-it-coulda-been-worse idea.
But I’ve got a short memory, so here goes – in no particular order, predictions for the comp world in 2011.
1. Business will pick up – a lot. Hiring numbers are up, there’s considerable growth in high-frequency areas like logistics, construction, and health care, and frequency itself is trending higher. What’s been a looooong, cold winter in the work comp world is getting much brighter.
2. We’ll see several new comp writers enter the market – as things pick up, the capital that has been parked, waiting for a better, more promising opportunity, will start coming into comp, providing increased underwriting capacity in selected markets. I don’t see this as a flood, but more as selective entrance into specific markets.
3. Sedgwick will continue to snap up TPA operations, supply-chain pieces, and managed care vendors as it expands its leadership position. And there will be plenty from which to select, as a few TPAs are just barely holding on.
4. The exploding growth of opioid usage in narcotics in comp will become even more prominent, with several states seeking ways to attack the issue via regulation – or even legislation. NCCI and CWCI have done excellent work identifying the problem, now it’s time for regulators to give payers the tools they need to really impact overuse of opioids.
5. Obesity’s impact on work comp costs will gain more attention, as additional research will show significantly higher costs, longer disability durations, and lower RTW rates for the obese and morbidly obese. Employers will get tougher on new hires and existing employees alike, requiring both to meet and maintain body mass standards to get – and stay – hired.
6. Congress will not solve the Medicare physician reimbursement conundrum, choosing instead to kick the ever-growing deficit into 2012. As all comp provider fee schedules save one (California, for now) are based on Medicare’s RBRVS, there will be no change forced on states due to political possibilities in Washington.
7. Hospital and facility costs, both inpatient and out, are going to get a lot more attention in payers’ C suites. Look for a lot more action on the part of big payers and self-insured employers as they seek to hold the line on cost increases driven by declining discounts and exploding utilization; action that will take the form of network shopping, intensive specialty bill review, and, for the smarter and more data-driven payers, more assertive direction to lower cost facilities.
8. We’ll see more litigation around ‘silent PPOs’ in more states. As providers learn more about the layering/stacking/combining of multiple PPOs, more will decide to litigate, driven in part by the success of other efforts in states such as Illinois and Louisiana. This will be driven – in large part – by the legislative/judicial environment in specific jurisdictions, and in equal measure by outraged providers angry that they are giving discounts to patients who just happened to stumble into their practices.
I’ve saved the two biggest for last.
9. Social media is going to make its presence felt broadly and deeply in comp, in ways obvious and not, good and bad – The time-to-implementation for new and better ways of doing things, quick vetting of new ideas, and dissemination of best practices and alerts about new dangers/problems in the work comp world are all accelerating/improving as more and more of us use the myriad social networking tools. From the start of ‘social media’ in comp – which was probably marked by the publication of Workers Comp Insider more than seven years ago (!!) , through the explosive growth of Mark Walls’ Work Comp Analysis Group on LinkedIn, to Facebook, Twitter, photosharing sites and user groups, there are now dozens of ways to share, send, find, and uncover information that – back a mere eight years ago – was either never going to be found, or would have taken days if not weeks of digging, or was outright impossible to get without convening a few thousand WC pros in a room and asking them to respond to a question.
This is a powerful force for efficiency, a terrific tool for claims and underwriting and medical management and planning. It is also one fraught with danger – the danger of believing everything you read on the Internet just because it agrees with your mindset; the risk of taking action based on unsubstantiated rumors, the potential for privacy violation, and perhaps most common, the risk of embarrassment that comes from passing on ‘information’ to others before vetting it yourself (especially MCM’s annual April Fool’s posts…)
10. The impact of health reform on workers comp will happen in ways mostly subtle. The industry was served notice late last year of just how much reform is going to affect comp when Humana announced it was buying Concentra, the largest provider of primary occ injury care in the nation – for reasons completely unrelated to work comp. We can expect to see:
– consolidation in the health plan industry as size becomes even more important
– more vigorous enforcement of anti-trust regulations that may well block some of these deals
– providers getting increasingly hard-nosed in negotiations with comp networks
– changes to fee schedules as RBRVS changes flow thru the system
– changes in provider practice patterns and utilization as physicians adapt to reform initiatives
And, equally likely, not see other effects early on because they are very subtle and we aren’t even able to track them until they become blindingly obvious.
There you have it. What to watch for, where I think things are heading and what the impact will be. As sure as I am that I’m correct on a few/some of these, I’m just as sure there are some big ones I missed completely, and others I predicted that won’t happen at all.
But January always brings out the optimist in me!
Here’s to your New Year – may your positive predictions come true, and your negative ones not.


Dec
30

The rumors about Progressive and Stone River are true. Sort of.

For a couple weeks now there’s been a rumor that PBM Progressive Medical is acquiring third party biller Stone River.
There is a grain of truth in this.
In reality Stone Point Capital is acquiring Progressive which will operate as an independent company, reporting up thru a holding company structure to be called Progressive Enterprises. PE will include Stone River.
A highly placed source indicated current Progressive Chairman Dave Bianconi will remain with PE and has invested in the company. I’m betting Dave has a somewhat much greater ability to do that – or will when the deal closes. Dave is very well regarded in the comp world and well liked by all. I may be a bit biased as Dave is a friend as well, so I’m happy for him personally, as well as the rest of the Progressive folks.
As to how this will be perceived in the market, that’s a very good question. SR is not well liked by most payers. It remains to be seen if the new alliance will help Progressive add market share, a task that has been somewhat daunting of late for the 24-year old company.
The official announcement will be released tomorrow; like most it’s pretty obtuse and lacks any substantive details.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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