There’s too much legal precedence at stake, too many years of “settled” law, too much potential disruption to the legal system for the Supreme Court to reject the individual mandate portion of the PPACA.
That’s the general consensus of legal experts, and while they could be wrong, I don’t think so.
A quick summary.
There are four separate issues in front of the Supreme Court, with perhaps the most significant the “individual mandate”: the requirement that each of us have health insurance or pay a (rather modest) fine. According to an American Bar Association poll of experts on the Supreme Court; “85% said the act would be upheld, [emphasis added] mainly because they believed the court would find the requirement that all adult Americans obtain insurance coverage to be constitutional.”
Before my conservative friends start railing, don’t assault the messenger. This isn’t a political statement, but rather reporting on what looks to be a general consensus that the mandate will be upheld. [opens pdf]
Moreover, let’s not forget that the insurance mandate was the brainchild of the conservative Heritage Foundation; back in 1989 the Foundation’s Stuart Butler wrote:
“[N]either the federal government nor any state requires all households to protect themselves from the potentially catastrophic costs of a serious accident or illness. Under the Heritage plan, there would be such a requirement…Society does feel a moral obligation to insure that its citizens do not suffer from the unavailability of health care. But on the other hand, each household has the obligation, to the extent it is able, to avoid placing demands on society by protecting itself…A mandate on households certainly would force those with adequate means to obtain insurance protection.”
The same expert panel surveyed by the ABA also predicted the Court will:
– not find the challenge to the law is premature (in legal-speak, the issue isn’t “ripe”)
– they will uphold the rest of the law if the mandate is ruled un-Constitutional
– the Medicaid expansion will be deemed Constitutional (24 states have asserted it is not)
As regular readers know all too well, my batting average on these prediction things can be pretty inconsistent, so opponents of the PPACA may well take heart; if I’m betting one way, there’s almost certainly a lot of smart money taking the other side of the wager.
Either way, we’ll have a ruling in early summer. In the interim, health plans are betting the law will be upheld, and are working fast and furiously to prepare.
Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda