Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Jun
6

NCCI’s new narcotics report – the highlights

NCCI released their latest research on the use of opioids in workers comp, and the news is chilling indeed. And there’s one outstanding puzzling conclusion.
Here are a few of the key take-aways.
– Per-claim narcotic costs have increased (almost doubling from 2001 – 2009)
– Far more claimants are getting narcotics early on in the claim now than in the past
– One percent of claimants taking narcotics use 40% of all narcotics
– Initial narcotic use (how much and how potent) is a good predictor of future use
One of the more (initially) surprising findings was somewhat counter-intuitive; narcotics’ share of total WC pharmacy spend is relatively stable. How can this be? If narcotic costs are going up and usage is going up and more claimants are getting narcotics now than in the past, how is this possible?
I will speculate this is directly related to the explosive growth in physician dispensing of repackaged drugs, and the much higher cost-per-pill of these drugs. Simply put, repackaged drugs are adding about a billion dollars a year (and growing) to employers’ work comp costs. The impact of the growth in physician dispensing far outstrips that of narctoic usage.
My educated guess is physician dispensed drugs will account for a third to forty percent of all drug costs in work comp this year.
Back to the study and the implications thereof.
This is yet another wake-up call to legislators, regulators, payers, PBMs, employers, physicians and claimants and claimant advocates. There is far, far too much usage of opioids in workers comp. Most of these drugs were developed solely for treating breakthrough cancer pain, a diagnosis all but non-existent in work comp. These drugs lead to addiction and dependency while having limited impact on pain while doing next to nothing to improve functionality.
So, why are we/you allowing this to happen?


Jun
4

Texas’ workers comp opioid audit program

States are starting to study opioid prescribing patterns – and well they should.
Last week, WorkCompWire arrived with an update on Texas’ plans to assess opioid prescribing patterns for work comp claimants in the Lone Star State. Actually, this isn’t an assessment of prescribing patterns, but rather a very limited review/audit of the top 15 physician opioid prescribers – with some major exemptions.
The opioid audit plan [opens pdf] covers claims with dates of accident in 2010 where the initial opioid prescription was less than 10 days from the date of injury; there’s more than a 30 day total supply of opioids for the injured employee; and the physician audited was the health care provider prescribing opioids to the injured employee.
I asked TDI (via email) why the audit was limited to 15 physicians, when and if the names of the top 15 prescribers will be published, why they aren’t looking at multiple prescibers, and what they will do with the results. The initial response was boilerplate and did not address those questions.
If there’s more follow up (I asked again) I’ll let you know.
The very limited nature of the audit is puzzling; payers have been required to report all manner of information to Texas for several years, with rather draconian penalties for failure to report. With this wealth of data, gathered at great expense and at no small cost to employers and their payers and vendors, it should be relatively simple to provide in-depth information on prescribing patterns around the entire Lone Star State. These data could be case-mix adjusted as well, something that isn’t mentioned in the TDI announcement on the current project. It is entirely possible the Medical Quality Review Panel will do that, but the memo from TDI says the Panel will “assess the medical necessity and appropriateness of prescribing opioids incases selected for this Plan-Based Audit by using their professional expertise and knowledge…”
In fact, case-mix adjusting may be irrelevant, as it doesn’t appear this is a statistical analysis, but rather a kind of peer review.
I’m a bit puzzled as to the intent and outcome of this effort.
While it is admirable to evaluate opioid prescribing, it’s unclear what the reviewers or regulators or enforcement authorities or employers will do differently after the audit.
They’ll have a good perspective on prescribing patterns for 15 docs, but…to what end?
Perhaps this is intended to be a warning shot across the bows of prescribing physicians, letting them know that high prescribers may come under scrutiny at some point. That’s purely conjecture on my part, as I’m not sure I understand the utility of the audit as currently described.
California, for all their ills, has done a creditable job studying and reporting on the physicians’ opioid prescribing patterns. The multiple reports, discussions, and publications resulting from CWCI’s research have led to a much better understanding of the dimension of the issue in California, one that may well have been instrumental in the state fund’s decision to incorporate prescribing practices in network contracting requirements.
I look forward to more dialogue with TDI, and will keep you posted.


Jun
1

Health insurance cost growth; Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial

As we consider what to do about health care costs and coverage, there are a couple data points worthy of our attention.
First, Medicare and Medicaid trends – which are looking better these days. As Maggie Mahar noted, “From 2000 through 2009, Medicare’s outlays climbed by an average of 9.7 percent a year. By contrast, since the beginning of 2010, Medicare spending has been rising by less than 4 percent a year.”
And this trend looks like it will continue; according to research published by the Urban Institute, both the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) “annual growth in spending per enrollee in both programs over this decade (2011-2020) is projected to be less than the growth in private insurance spending and close to the growth in per capita GDP.”
Note this is per-capita growth, which is more accurate when comparing different payer types as it accounts for enrollment changes.
Another data point – Massachusetts. As we noted a few weeks back, commercial insurance rate increases have dropped dramatically over the last year, driven by payers and providers working together to better manage cost and quality. Small group insurance premiums were up just over one percent last quarter, the second quarter in a row where rates have gone up less than 2 percent. Moreover, two large health plans filed for rate decreases…
Why? What’s made this happen?
Glad you asked. According to Kaiser Health News/NP5,
“…two years ago, the governor [Patrick Deval] directed his insurance commissioner to exercise a little-used power to turn down a requested rate increase because it was excessive. Not every state has this power.
Insurance companies were outraged. But [CEO Andrew} Dreyfus of Blue Cross Blue Shield now says it was a pivotal point.
“It sent a message to the entire health care community and the business community that we had to change,” Dreyfus says.
And change seems to be happening. Insurers have torn up their contracts with hospitals calling for annual reimbursement increases of 8 percent and 10 percent, and negotiated agreements providing for 3 percent, 2 percent and even zero percent increases.”
Meanwhile, employers’ health care costs are up 5.9% this year, and would have increased more if not for a significant increase in cost-shifting to employees (up over 19% from 2011 – 2012); employees are now paying over a third of their health care costs.
What does this mean for you?
If private insurers can’t do a better job controlling costs, it will be increasingly hard to argue against government intervention, whether in the form of top-down Massachusetts-style price control or delivery of care via governmental programs.


May
31

Why UR?

For those who think UR is not needed, I’d suggest considering something CWCI’s Alex Swedlow said at a recent presentation…
“you know we spend all this money on police and firefighters and we still have crime and arson. Maybe we should pull the cops and fire trucks out of downtown Oakland and see what happens.”


May
29

UR – we aren’t ready to have the conversation yet

Greg Jones’ recent articles in WorkCompCentral highlight the inherent problem in the debate in California around UR; there’s little data on which to base any assessment, much less draw conclusions. Moreover, the data that is available is not consistent; there are no common definitions or consensus around what constitutes a “denial”, an initial review, a secondary review, an appeal, a reconsideration,
Here are the key take-aways from Greg’s May 21 piece:
“Jerry Azevedo, a spokesman for the Workers’ Compensation Action Network, said
between the legislative proposal and reform talk, utilization review is an important topic. It would be beneficial to the entire community to have quantifiable data to understand the real frequency at which requests for medical treatment are being denied, he said.without statistics on utilization review it’s really only possible for stakeholders to base their debate on anecdotal evidence[emphasis added], which is not the best course of action.
“In terms of operating a system and in terms of what we want regulators to do, it needs to be based on statistics and what the numbers really are,” Azevedo said.”
The result of this lack of understanding is, at the least, mass confusion. At the worst, legislators and regulators are called on to make decisions affecting workers comp based on anecdotal information, press releases, histrionic statements, and data carefully selected to represent the perspective of the presenting party.
That’s no way to run a system.
Let’s start with a basic question – what, if anything, are the benefits of UR?
Well, the last credible study I could find was published in December 2007 by Alex Swedlow and John Ireland of CWCI. The study, entitled Analysis of California Workers’ Compensation Reforms; Part 1: Medical Utilization & Reimbursement Outcomes Accident Years 2002 – 2006 Claims Experience”, analyzed the impact of California’s work comp reforms.
Here’s the key data:
“In five of the six treatment categories, the average amount paid per claim for that type of treatment during the first 2 years following the injury declined – the only exception being surgery. Among surgery claims, the average amount paid for surgery services at the two-year valuation point was about 5 percent higher in the post-reform period than in the pre-reform period.”
Okay, I know, this was based on data that is now a bit old, and we need more current information and analysis. But CWCI’s research clearly and convincingly demonstrates that the reforms did have a significant, positive impact. Utilization declined across most medical treatment categories, and since then costs have declined dramatically. Really dramatically.
CWCI will be publishing updated research on this issue later this summer.
It is abundantly clear – from Jones’ article and the confusion surrounding the costs, benefits, and outcomes of UR, that we can’t make any decisions based on the information available today. It’s not sketchy, it’s almost non-existent. And, what we do have is contradictory and unhelpful as basic data field definitions are inconsistent.
As luck would have it, my firm (Health Strategy Associates, LLC) has just begun our first annual Survey on Utilization Review in Workers Compensation. We are surveying C level execs as well as desk-level folks (claims adjusters, claims execs) for their opinions concerning and results of UR.
The On-Line Survey should take 20-25 minutes tops, and one lucky recipient will receive an iPad 2 as a token of our appreciation (make sure you include your contact info if you want a shot at the iPad).
We will be publishing the results of the Survey in June, and hope it provides additional insight into the utility of UR across the industry.


May
25

New risks in workers comp – the rise of mining

While construction is still in the dumps, there’s been a remarkable recovery in what was once thought to be a gone-forever industry – mining. While the mineral mines in Michigan, oil shale projects in North Dakota, copper mining in the southwest and oil and gas in near-shore and Arctic areas have yet to hit their full stride, the growth in employment in extractive industries has been significant – up almost sixty percent over the last ten years, with an increase of 12 percent since the beginning of 2011.
The BLS projects employment to grow by almost 25% from 2010 to 2020, and current hiring levels make that projection appear to be conservative.
Wages are also high at over $28 an hour, and the average work week is well over full-time. This is balanced by a decline in frequency for OSHA reportable injuries/illnesses, but the underlying trend is clear – the mining and extractive industries are experiencing a rebirth, one that will dramatically affect workers comp albeit in selected states.
This has already hit North Dakota, where the state’s monopolistic fund, already under fire for what can fairly be termed gross incompetence and possibly intentional negligence, is hard pressed to deal with the huge growth in oil and gas in the western part of the state. Tough to focus on business when you’re consumed with circling the wagons to hold off legal inquiries into denying injured workers benefits.
The implications for comp are obvious.
Injury rates in extractive industries are higher than average, and the types of injuries tend to be more severe.

There are fewer opportunities for transitional duty to help recovering workers get back on the (a) job.
Job sites are often located far from cities and comprehensive medical care services.
New employees may not receive adequate training in safety and loss prevention.
What does this mean for you?
Work comp executives, regulators, and service providers would be well-served to closely monitor employment projections; while these shifts will only affect certain states, the impact they will have on those states is likely to be significant.


May
24

Freedom v responsibility – another view

As our country confronts rising health care costs, it is incumbent on all of us to take responsibility for our actions and not rely on others to pay for our “freedoms”. One small way to address this is for motorcyclists who ride without helmets to buy health insurance to cover the costs of injuries.
In response to my post on that subject yesterday, I heard from Pete terHorst of the American Motorcycle Association (AMA) who took issue with my recommendation. Pete was courteous, responsive and is likely an excellent debater. He made a couple of points that I do not agree with – here’s the summary.
My central point was this: Those who seek personal freedom should bear the cost of that freedom. Simple, basic idea, right?
– medical costs for helmetless cyclists involved in crashes are substantially higher than for those riding with helmets;
– many don’t have health insurance and thus uncompensated providers, taxpayers and private insureds cover their costs;
– if states want to repeal helmet laws, then require those riding without helmets to buy medical insurance to cover all potential costs.
Not so simple, according to the AMA.
Pete’s initial comment cited some old research re the cost of motorcyclist trauma care relative to auto injury care and the percentage of riders covered v drivers. This was, in my view, not germane to my central point – so I asked Pete “do you think helmetless riders should not be required to have insurance coverage?. After some back and forthing and Pete’s diversion into discussion of helmet mandates v accident prevention, I tried to steer the conversation back to the central issue, to wit:
“It is appropriate behavior for those individuals to assume the responsibility that goes with their freedom to ride without a helmet.”
Here, are a couple of Pete’s responses:
What the AMA and its members expect is fairness. When the insurance
industry singles out and seeks additional revenue from motorcyclists
for behaviors it considers risky, the logical extension of that
mindset is that the insurance industry would do the same for other
so-called risky behavior. [I’d note that nowhere did I suggest the insurance industry single anyone out, but rather legislators pass a bill mandating medical insurance for helmetless riders] But it does not, because singling what is
risky and what is not is a very slippery slope to tread, and involves
taking on mainstream segments of society that currently represent a
significant revenue stream for insurance industry. [again, I didn’t say anything about insurance companies supporting, backing or conceiving of any such plan] Conversely,
motorcycling is not an activity that most Americans participate in,
and it is a visible and easy target for those who do not understand
its appeal. Bottom line: The AMA does not expect special treatment for
motorcyclists, it expects — and advocates for — fair treatment… The AMA doesn’t favor requiring unhelmeted motorcyclists carry additional medical insurance that is not required of other road users.
If I follow the logic, as long as others are allowed to be “free riders”, the AMA wants motorcyclists to be free riders as well.
Somehow that doesn’t seem right. Here’s a group who wants the freedom to ride without helmets but doesn’t want to pay the cost for that – unless every other participant in risky behavior is also forced to do so. That strikes me as selfish and irresponsible; “just because he gets away with it I want to get away with it too.”
Pete also argued that requiring helmetless riders to get medical coverage would somehow be unfair, and it would head us down a slippery slope – I don’t see this at all; my recommendation would be handled under traffic/motor vehicle laws, and it is abundantly clear (check the sources in the post yesterday) that riders without helmets in accidents are much more expensive to care for than helmeted riders.
What does this mean for you?
Watch our for free riders…


May
23

Motorcycle helmets, freedom and responsibility

While death rates from auto accidents have been steadily decreasing, that’s not the case for motorcycles. There were 1.7% fewer motor vehicle fatalities last year, but motorcyclist deaths didn’t drop at all.
What’s going on? Well, after states laws mandating helmet usage were repealed, death rates climbed dramatically, up 21% in Arkansas, 81% in Florida, 58% in Kentucky, 108% in Louisiana, and 31% in Texas.
huge-motorcycle-crash-compilation.jpg
So why should you care?
Well, when these freedom-loving riders smack their heads into the pavement, dying or even worse incurring a traumatic brain injury, who pays for the heroic – and very expensive – efforts to save their lives?
Turns out less than half had health insurance coverage.
If they don’t have private insurance, that would be you and me. Research indicates taxpayers pick up about 40% of the medical costs from helmetless riders; cost-shifting to private insurers is certainly high as well.
Here’s a simple solution that should be added to any bill repealing a state’s helmet law.
Those who want to ride without a helmet have to buy insurance that reflects that decision. That insurance must provide comprehensive coverage for medical care for accidents associated with the covered individual, including long term custodial care, with a really high limit – say $10 million, that is indexed to the medical CPI to account for inflation.
Upon showing proof of coverage, they get a special license plate. Insurance companies take the risk, society does not get harmed due to the adverse consequence of a personal decision, and those who want to ride with their hair blowing in the wind are free to do so.
Oh, and they should be required to be organ donors as well.


May
22

Inflation in Medicare, private insurance, and work comp

Credible research indicates health cost inflation rates will remain fairly low during this decade, driven by “greater cost-sharing in private insurance, new Medicare payment policies, slower growth in prescription drug spending, and an upcoming tax on high-cost insurance premiums.”
Note two of the primary drivers are reduced payments to providers by Medicare and Medicaid and more spending by individuals. These ‘cost-moderators’ are countered (somewhat) by the growth in Medicare eligibles.
The result is overall inflation rates will be about the same for private payers and Medicare at 5.7%. However, on a per-enrollee basis, Medicare’s trend is substantially lower (more than two points) than private insurance. Again, cuts in Medicare’s reimbursement to providers is the primary driver.
It is important to understand the difference between overall program and per-enrollee
cost inflation; it’s also important to think thru the implications for other payers – work comp and auto specifically.
With significant growth in Medicare and Medicaid enrollment coupled with low growth in the number of privately insureds, providers will see flat to declining compensation from a large chunk of their patient population. The latest figures indicate physician compensation rates have been relatively stable; given low overall inflation this is likely “acceptable”. Notably, some specialities saw increases while others dealt with reduced compensation.
However, as patient mix changes, the decline in compensation is inevitable, and will have far-reaching consequences.
What does this mean for you?
Expect utilization to increase, along with charges for services billed to all payers. Those payers without strong fee schedule or contractual controls on price will likely see significant price inflation as well.


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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