Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda

Aug
14

1 +1 = 3

Two mostly-ignored things will have way more impact on workers’ comp than any other ten factors.

And as usual, workers’ comp is out to lunch.

Let’s quickly review the work comp industry’s failure to understand reality.  When COVID hit, the workers’ comp industry’s caterwauling and catastrophizing hit epic levels… mostly driven by

That led to far too much angst and far too little reality-based planning by the workers’ comp industry.

Fast forward to today, where the opposite is happening.

The industry is blithely ignoring the impact;

  • heat will have on claims, loss ratios, combined ratios, and claim duration, and
  • infrastructure investment will have on premiums and claims.

Heat

The massive and seemingly endless heatwave in multiple states is affecting restaurant workers, agricultural workers, folks in logistics and manufacturing.

Sure there’s heat exhaustion and heat stroke and heat prostration (which costs about $38k per claim…)

But that’s the (forgive the analogy) tip of the iceberg…Excessive heat also creates more injuries of all types…injuries to cherry harvesters in Washington State increase 1.5% for every 1 degree C above 25 C (77 degrees F) – mostly from falling off ladders.

Oh, and California data shows: compared to days with temps in the 60s,

      • on days when the temperature was between 85 – 90 degrees Fahrenheit…the overall risk of ALL types of workplace injuries was 5 to 7 percent higher.
      • when temps topped 100 degrees, the overall risk of injuries was 10 to 15 percent greater.

This means more claims in an industry that is generally unprepared to “manage” heat-related claims.

Jobs

Hundreds of billions of dollars is flowing into infrastructure, investment that has already created ninety thousand jobs in:

  • construction,
  • transportation improvements,
  • highway, bridge and road maintenance and replacement, and
  • heavy industry.

And many more jobs are on the way. (check out where this is happening here).

These are very well-paid, high-frequency and high-severity jobs.

This means premiums will increase as will claims and claims costs. And this will continue for years.

What this means for you.

At risk of belaboring the obvious, a more dangerous environment for many more workers  in already high-risk jobs. 

Heat + Jobs = more premium dollars, higher costs for self-insureds, more claims, and higher severity claims.

 

 


Aug
10

We are all Hawaiians

The disaster in Maui is one of the most awful things I’ve ever seen. An entire town of 12,000 is gone, burned to the ground by a horrific firestorm.

At last 36 are dead, while countless others survived only because they jumped into the ocean to avoid being burned to death.

Here’s how we should think about this.

Of all the places in the US, no one ever thought Maui, a tourist paradise, would ever be in the news for a devastating wildfire. If it can happen in Maui, it can happen in Ohio, or New Jersey, or your home town.

Think it can’t?

So did residents of Lahaina.

What does this mean for you?

Prepare. Now. Not tomorrow, not next week, not as a 2024 goal.  Now.

Here’s a detailed discussion along with a list of what to do.

note – I am on Threads – joe_paduda


Aug
7

Physician dispensing in work comp is roaring back

mostly because insurers and employers have a been asleep at the switch.

Republishing a post with minor edits from two years ago…LOTS more on the sleazy business of physician dispensing here

WCRI’s latest report finds:

  • Physician-dispensed drugs (PDDs) accounted for more than half of drug costs per claim in Q1 2020 in four states – Florida, Georgia, Illinois, and Maryland.
  • In 12 states, doc-dispensed dermatological agents accounted for most payments for this drug class.
  • Louisiana is worst-off, with employers paying $190 per claim for dermo drugs in the 1st quarter of 2020…Illinois is right behind at $181.
  • Kansas and Connecticut saw payments for those dermo drugs triple from Q1 2017 to Q1 2020.

That profit-sucking prescribing by docs in Connecticut is why total drug spend increased 30% in the Nutmeg State – making it one of two states that had drug spend increases. Florida – the home state of PDD – was the other. (Across all subject states, drug costs dropped 41%.)

Having lived in CT for over 20 years, I’m really stumped by the precipitous increase in skin care drugs.

What could POSSIBLY be driving this massive need for occupationally-driven skin care/topicals?

  • Did sun spots create a pandemic of skin cancer but somehow only affect the second-smallest state?
  • Did a massive refinery accident expose tens of thousands of workers to burns or skin infections?
  • Did a hyper-virulent new breed of poison ivy run rampant, affecting thousands of landscaping and municipal workers?
  • Did the emerging cannabis industry fail to protect its workers from fertilizer burns, exposing thousands of workers to painful blisters?
  • Did everyone in Connecticut suddenly become unable to swallow a pill?

Of course not.

The real question is this:

why haven’t insurers, TPAs, and self-insured employers used CT’s Medical Care Plan to ban physician dispensing? Payers including the Workers’ Comp Trust of CT have pretty much eliminated physician dispensing.

It’s not just Connecticut.  PDD costs are outrageous, and all credible research indicates PDD is totally unnecessary, increases medical costs, and prolongs disability.

WCRI’s research should be a call to action.  Legislators, regulators, and payers are doing their policyholders and clients a disservice by failing to aggressively attack physician dispensing.

And those clients and policyholders are equally at fault – it is up to you to work with your PBM and payer to stop this rampant profiteering. 

What does this mean for you?

Yeah, I know it’s hard.

Stop whining and get serious.


Aug
3

Survey of workers’ comp bill review – Fourth edition

Our fourth (!!) Survey of Workers’ Comp Bill Review is nearing completion…one of the good things about doing this every few  years is we can identify trends and the industry’s evolution.

This year we surveyed both executives and front-line staff. Shockingly, they didn’t always agree…

a few initial takeaways…(ratings are 1 – 5, with 5 being the best)

  • The Bill Review industry generally held its level of support from 2018. Overall average (all vendors grades from all respondents) was 3.2, just above, equal to 2018.
  • Despite respondents’ overall view not changing, there’s less differentiation among the major players; scores have compressed.
  • New entrants are making inroads
  • Customer service remains absolutely critical to a successful bill review relationship: considered the top reason a company would change bill review vendors and consistently ranked near the top for “most important bill review attribute”.
    • this is consistent across the dozens of surveys of all types HSA has done over the last 2+ decades…
  • There is a noticeable difference between executives and front line employees when evaluating customer service – front line average score 3.6 vs. 4.2 for executives.
  • Front line employees have different criteria for quality customer service than executives’…: front liners do not seem to care much about soft skill aspects of customer service but rather customization and timely updates while executives have a more traditional sense of customer service.
  • Automation is on most people’s minds – but it isn’t all positive. While nearly all talking about it want more automation (for TAT/auto-adjudication/quality reasons) some still need it to handle the basics better than it currently does.
  • E-billing, for largely the same reasons as automation, is getting more popular – especially among larger respondents and internally run bill review respondents.
  • Bill review vendors are seen as quite transparent – especially compared to 2018. 90% of respondents believed their bill review vendor to be transparent vs. just 52% in 2018. This is despite several complaints about how convoluted % of savings can be.
  • Flat rate pricing is rising in popularity while % of savings is not viewed favorably in most cases.

Cautionary note – these highlights are just that – highlights – and there’s often a lot of nuance underlying respondents’ views and perspectives. That will be described in the final report …a public version of the report will be available in a few weeks. (Respondents get a much more detailed version).

What does this mean for you?

Customer service.


Aug
1

RAND’s report on Alternative payment models in work comp…oh my…

RAND’s long-awaited research paper on Alternative Payment Models for California Workers’ Comp is out.

It is…underwhelming, incomplete, doesn’t focus on key metrics, did not include actual examples of APMs in WC (of which there are many), makes inappropriate comparisons, and…I could go on.

Yeah, I know it’s an initial study, but C’mon…

First, a couple intro notes…

    • in laypersons’ terms, Alternative Payment Models (APMs) are different payment schemes/methodologies used in an attempt to improve care/patient experience/save money.
    • APMs include pay for performance, bundled payments (e.g. flat fee for a surgical episode), per member per month flat fees, global payments and other models.
    • APMs are quite commonplace in Medicare/Medicaid, group health, and exchange healthplans and have been for years.
    • Broadly speaking, despite LOTS of different approaches, studies, methods and work, to date APMs’ impact on those metrics has been marginal.

OK…initial takes on RAND’s report. (note I haven’t thoroughly reviewed and analyzed all 95 pages, but wanted to get this out ASAP)

APM in WC

Most importantly, there have been numerous experiments AND long-standing programs with “alternative payment models” in California and other states…somehow RAND missed these. Yes RAND noted Ohio and Washington have done work on APMs, but RAND missed:

  • Carisk’s Pathways2Recovery Program (Carisk is an HSA client)
  • Paradigm’s HERO programs. – models include full risk transfer and episode of care payment for shoulder, back, knee and other diagnoses.
  • Medrisk has had an episode-based managed physical medicine reimbursement model in place for decades. (Medrisk is an HSA client)
    • other specialty network/service companies have had similar programs
  • and others I don’t have time to get into.

I note that these are very patient- and condition-specific and narrowly focused – similar to many group health/Medicare/Medicaid APMs…yet should have been included.

Inpatient vs outpatient

Across all payer types, care has been shifting from inpatient to outpatient settings. Unfortunately RAND spends a lot of time on inpatient APMs and nowhere near enough on the outpatient side. 

Outcomes

What is critically important in workers’ comp (and I argue SHOULD be across all payer types) is sustained and rapid return to functionality. There is precious little discussion of the central importance of this primary goal – and how it might/might not be affected by myriad different APM models/studies discussed in RAND’s report.

Comparisons

RAND relies extensively on comparing hospitals in the Hospital Value-Based Purchasing Program (HVBP) to critical access hospitals that are not in that program…without much discussion of the key differences between these facilities, differences that – I would argue – make comparisons sketchy at best.

One issue – poorer patients are more likely to get care at and represent larger percentage of the patient population at critical access facilities…that demographic also consistently rates patient experience lower than wealthier patients. Thus, comparing HVBP program patient experience data to critical access hospital data is difficult – at best.

Access to care

RAND makes a major point about “stakeholders” concerns about access to care. Actual real scientific research paints a different picture.

Let’s get real.

There’s a whole shipload of factors that RAND mentions (very briefly) that deserve a LOT more discussion.

One example – less than a penny of the US healthcare dollar is spent on workers comp medical. That, dear reader, makes it really hard to get the vast majority of health care providers to do ANYTHING.

What does this mean for you?

There are APM in WC…and a lot of history and knowledge and research and expertise around them. Much could have been learned if they were fully considered. 

For a lot less money.

 

 


Jul
31

Just the facts, ma’am…

Another day, another record-breaking heat wave. And this one is really really bad.

Amazon workers are going on strike…construction crews on the Canadian border are knocking off early to avoid heat…Florida utility workers are postponing checks for gas leaks due to excessive heat risks

Yet some folks still don’t think we humans are the problem…they call up all kinds of specious arguments supported by “I read an article…” “They said…” “This one scientist”

I’ve put together a handy point:counterpoint addressing deniers’ arguments…feel free to plagiarize!

About global warming!

Denier: Scientists don’t agree that humans are driving global warming or, another equally wrong argument that “non-human events” (volcanoes??) are the driver.

Well…Net is even four years ago, almost every climate scientist agreed global warming is caused by humans.

Every credible scientific organization agrees.

More than 400 billion metric tons of carbon have been released into the atmosphere from the consumption of fossil fuels and cement production since 1751- half of which was emitted since the 1980s. 

There are no credible sources asserting non-human greenhouse gas production is a significant contributor to the 45% increase in carbon over the last 150 years. (If you have any, please post in comments below)

Denier: The climate changes all the time…those scientists don’t know why.
Well…research shows climate changes NOT associated with greenhouse gases were most likely generated by earth’s wobbling on its axis – and the sun was cooler long ago.
Denier: You can’t prove human-generated greenhouse gas increases are causing these big weather events.
Well…yes we can.  Attribution science is becoming ever better at predicting future events based on human-caused global warming’s effects.
Denier: Weather was worse (pick a time) and here’s a chart/graph/meme that proves it.
These are misleading misuses of data from credible sources...one fave is this – which is actually from the EPA…which deniers use to say “see…it was worse back in the thirties!!”
A graph showing the temperature of the year Description automatically generated
Well…a “heat wave index” is really misleading as it refers to a specific event – a “heat wave” and doesn’t address global warming.  Fortunately, the EPA has this. As you can see, things varied in the past – up until about 1980…then, the trend is only up.
Screen Shot 2023-07-29 at 2.55.32 PM.png
What does this mean for you?
Feel free to forward this to your denier/skeptic friends and family. 
note: ALWAYS happy to entertain differing viewpoints…please remember to include credible sources for your arguments!

Jul
27

Things you may have missed…

The recession…or lack thereof.

News this morning that our economy grew at 2.4%…further encouraging news as it appears we are heading for a soft landing (ie very limited or no recession).

Also, personal income growth grew nicely at 2.5%…

From NYT:

“If you’re looking for a working definition of ‘resilient,’ look no further than the American economy,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “This is absolutely rock-solid.”

Good info on the impact of the soft landing from HBR here.

What does this mean?

A good economy = more good-paying jobs and better lives for many.

From the desk of GB’s Dr Gary Anderberg comes an excellent summary of global warming’s impact on specific jobs.  Gary is excerpting from a KFF research report published in January

“highlights” include:

  • We estimate there are over 65 million nonelderly adult workers in occupations at increased risk for climate-related health risks, accounting for over four in ten of nonelderly workers.
  • Among nonelderly adult workers, many people of color, noncitizen immigrants, and workers with lower educational attainment and income levels are disproportionately likely to be employed in jobs with increased climate-related risks.
  • Nonelderly workers in at-risk occupations are about twice as likely as their counterparts in less at-risk occupations to lack health insurance (16% vs. 7%)

And the temps just keep on rising...this summer will break all records for heat, deaths from heat, heat-related injuries…

and it’s only going to get worse.

What does this mean?

This global warming thing has real consequences – as in higher occupational injuries and illnesses.

Last – and most awful, “the greatest country in the world” – at least when comparing American kids dying by gunshot to other industrialized nations

from KFF

What does this mean for you?

More of us know of more families devastated by gun violence. 


Jul
26

2023 predictions for workers’ comp – how am I doing? part 2

Loyal readers know I hold myself accountable…if I call out others, I need to do the same for my own errors and misjudgments.

also – I dumped my Twitter account and moved to Threads – joe_paduda is the handle.

so here’s the second half of my predictions for work comp in 2023 (first 5 are here)

6. The growing impact of global warming will force changes in risk assessment, management and mitigation; technology adoption; and claims.
The predicted (heat injuries, wildfires, hurricane intensity, sea level rise) and unforeseen (atmospheric river-driven flooding, landslides, and destruction and others) changes in climate and weather will lead to more and different injuries and illnesses, higher risks for fire fighters and public safety workers, and unpredictable problems related to polluted storm water runoff, water-borne disease and perhaps invasive species.
Yup. See reports of heat-related injuries in Texas, including this tragedy that led to a lawsuit. Much more to come…(he said with no joy)

And an excellent analysis by the brainiacs at Milliman...

credit the Guardian

7. Payers and perhaps regulators will make significant efforts to address rising facility costs.
As for-profit healthcare systems look to pad record profits and not-for-profits seek to survive, payers will be looking for better cost control answers than simply doing more of the same stuff they’ve been doing for the last two decades. Network discounts (NOT THE SAME AS SAVINGS) are declining as facilities wise up to most payers’ lackadaisical/ineffective attempts at employee direction and unsophisticated contracting strategies.
Smarter payers will deploy multiple payment integrity layers  – both pre- and post-payment. All should demand more – much more – from their bill review vendors/technology suppliers, all of whom have long refused to entertain the thought that they could do better – much better.

Inconclusive…some evidence but not anything indicating a trend…

8. Premiums will increase – mostly late in the year.
As infrastructure, green energy, re-shoring of chip manufacturing and EV incentives ramp up in the fall so will employment. While there’s disagreement among economists (yeah, who woulda thought??) expect big hiring in categories from archeologists and bridge builders to wireless broadband construction workers.  Manufacturing, heavy construction, trades, logistics will all be hiring…as these tend to be higher frequency (more claims than average) and higher severity (claims are more severe and costly) this means higher premiums and more claims.

Good news indeed for my friends in Cincinnati!

Too early to tell.

Oh, and mark me down for one who does not see a significant recession in our near future.  I know, I’m no economist (who disagree a lot about this) but hiring is too strong, these major investments are on the horizon, and inflation is coming under control  – all indications that a “soft landing” is more likely than not.

Somewhat inconclusive, although more economists are following my lead (ouch! sprained my elbow patting myself on the back!)

9. SB1127 – aka the CAFE Act (California Attorney Full Employment Act) will cause heartburn and consternation among Golden State employers and tax payers.
SB1127 shortens the time period for employers to determine the compensability of claims, a change which will lead to – among other problems – more initial denials and less time for injured workers to receive medical care while their employer researches the claim. Further, AB1127 appears to allow for penalties of up to $50,000 for claims that are “unreasonably rejected” by the employer – but the bill a) doesn’t define what constitutes an “unreasonable rejection” and b) doesn’t exclude claims that are already closed.

Expect attorneys to look for the Golden Ticket case – one that they think will establish precedence – and pursue it like a starving person at a Vegas buffet (or Cafe’).

Too early to tell

There’s good news too…I don’t see much else on the regulatory horizon that is cause for concern.

10. More consolidation among payers and service providers.

Yup. Enlyte bought Anthems workers’ comp network, accuro Solutions acquired Spashlight, Bardavon is looking for someone to buy them before it’s too late, and there are at least two other “processes” in process. 


Jul
25

VERY excited to announce a new ManagedCareMatters feature!

This incredibly prestigious award is strictly limited to one per month…so the competition amongst state legislators and regulators is BRUTAL.

So many aspire to the prestige and national recognition that the D/LRM brings that hundreds tirelessly beaver away, busting their humps to outdo the knuckleheads across the State Line, steam coming out their ears as they scribble away at the whiteboard, even calling on ChatGPT when their abundant natural intelligence doesn’t meet the mark.

This month it goes to…

IDAHO’s LEGISLATURE!

Congratulations to the Great Potato State! As of July 1, Idaho became the only state without a specialized committee to review deaths related to pregnancy!!

The [now-defunct] Maternal Mortality Review Committee, or MMRC was composed of a family medicine physician, an OB-GYN, a midwife, a coroner, and a social worker – and others. Data collected and analyzed by MMRCs is used to:

more fully understand the circumstances surrounding each death, determine whether the death was pregnancy-related, and develop recommendations for action to prevent similar deaths in the future…

(sounds kinda Pro-Life to me, but hey! whadda I know?)

The legislators who decided to sunset the committee weren’t available for comment, although one has to respect their bold, Pro-Life commitment to not helping figure out why moms are dying!

It’s even gutsier when one considers that two Idaho hospitals just announced they will no longer provider maternity care, AND OB/GYNS are leaving Idaho, AND the state has among the most restrictive anti-abortion laws in the country…(state law prohibited termination of ectopic pregnancies, which are never viable and can be fatal if not treated. This specific prohibition of this Pro-Life Legislation was later overturned by the State Supreme Court).

Despite Idaho’s pregnancy-related mortality ratio of 41.8 pregnancy-related deaths per 100,000 live births in 2020, a third higher than the nation’s (already very high) maternity mortality rate, legislators determined the Committee’s $15,000 annual cost was far, far too much to spend…even though it was entirely funded by a Federal Grant.

The de-funding/killing off of the Committee by Idaho’s Pro-Life Legislature to save Idaho taxpayers…nothing! sets a VERY high bar for other legislators…kudos to the Idaho Legislature for their undying commitment to…dying.

Footnote – 75 of 117 Idaho OB-GYNs recently surveyed by the Idaho Coalition for Safe Reproductive Health Care said they were considering leaving the state. Of those, nearly 100% — 73 of 75 — cited Idaho’s restrictive abortion laws.

The inaugural award sets a high bar indeed…

What does this mean for you?

Get to it you aspiring DL/RM recipients!


Jul
24

Research on wearable tech – it’s the data too!

Two recently-published peer-reviewed studies give more insight into the utility and effectiveness of wearables/digital health.

Key takeaway – digital health will affect care management and patient recovery in ways we are just beginning to grasp. 

One study examined 864 patients’ use of Plethy’s Recupe program.

Top takeaway – The better a patient’s mood, the lower their pain level and the more they comply with their exercise programs. While correlation is not causation, the connection between mood and recovery is clear.

While this may be obvious, the real takeaway is wearable technology can be an early-warning system, giving care givers and other stakeholders (i.e. claims adjusters, care managers) real-time insight into their patients’ mood and pain level.

Instead of waiting for the practitioner’s notes, reading and interpreting those notes, and (hopefully) determining the patient’s mood and pain level, wearable tech can alert care givers and case managers to potential recovery-delaying issues and intervene before problems become entrenched.

Digital health – specifically a wearable sensor plus Recupe app – is also associated with strong adherence to a home exercise program, significant decreases in pain and improvements in range of motion. This descriptive study looked at total knee arthroplasty patients, finding “Recupe patients recovered to lower pain levels with fewer patient visits and health care utilization [than reported by other published information].”

What does this mean for you?

Taken together, these studies show digital health’s effects are broad indeed…the instant access to key data points can help stakeholders quickly respond to patients’ needs and issues.

note – Plethy is an HSA consulting client.

 

 


Joe Paduda is the principal of Health Strategy Associates

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A national consulting firm specializing in managed care for workers’ compensation, group health and auto, and health care cost containment. We serve insurers, employers and health care providers.

 

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