Feb
5

yet ANOTHER work comp service company’s been sold

This time it is MSA firm Gould and Lamb.  The purchaser is IME firm Examworks, and according to WorkCompWire, the price is $75 million, or about 7.9 times earnings.

Back in the day, this would have been considered a pretty healthy price – but things have changed – big time.  With PMSI/Progressive going for 10x+, Align for 17x, OCCM for 13x, and other deals mostly in the double digits, this may be a reflection of the rather muddy forecast for the IME business.

And I’m not sure I see the strategic link between IMEs and MSAs.  Sure, there’s some “relatedness”, but it’s a bit of a stretch to see how 1 + 1 = 3 with this deal.


Feb
3

Opioid guidelines are about to get a whole lot better

In about ten days, providers and payers struggling with opioids will get a big hand up.

ACOEM will be releasing their just-completed Opioid Guidelines; they are comprehensive, extremely well-researched and well-documented, and desperately needed.

I learned about the guidelines from a presentation delivered by Kurt Hegmann MD MPH, Professor at the University of Utah and Chair of the Occ Med Division at the University of Utah’s Compensable Disabilty Forum.  In his spare time, Kurt is also responsible for ACOEM’s guidelines as the Editor-in-Chief, a role he’s filled for eight years.

Affable and engaging, Dr Hegmann walked the audience through the development process (quite rigorous, involving 26 professionals with NO conflicts of interest using the Institute of Medicine methodology), the research and (960) references behind the guidelines and the ranking/categorization of individual guidelines.

Here are a couple of takeaways.

  • Of the 220 pages, the vast majority are tables of evidence – some practitioners may peruse them, but most will focus on the couple dozen pages specific to individual treatments
  • The guidelines address acute and chronic treatment, with chronic defined as > 3 months
  • The detail, specificity, and depth of research and their application to guidelines are impressive indeed.  What these guidelines add to our understanding of what works, why, and what doesn’t is impressive by itself; how they blow apart pre-conceived notions of “appropriate” care and challenge long-held conventional wisdom was – at least for me – rather jarring.

    For example;

  • Other guidelines say it is Ok to be on safety sensitive jobs and take opioids – that is NOT supported by the research
  • The researchers found NO link between opioids and improved function – studies that show there is a link almost always use self-reported data.
  • No trials indicate opioids are superior for acute pain than NSAIDs.
  • The MAXIMUM dosage recommended is 50 MEDs (morphine equivalent dosage), significantly lower than most guidelines which use 100-120.  The reason is the research – there is a much lower risk at this level, with the data indicating a sharply higher risk profile for higher dosage.
  • Drug testing is recommended with a baseline and random tests 2-4x a year; the higher the dosage – more screening
  • Pain rating scales are all but useless as data points as lots of patients indicate their pain is a 10 and yet are working full time.  This is not possible, and indicates the uselessness of subjective ratings/scores/data.

Are they perfect?  No.  But that’s due to the lack of research on specific issues, and not to the diligence and perseverance of the developers.  If the research is solid, it is in the guidelines.

What does this mean for you?

A lot of confidence in the guidelines, and hope that we can begin to gain control of the epidemic of opioid overprescribing.


Jan
29

How Texas Mutual is successfully addressing opioids

A few states – very few – are getting some measure of control over the overuse of opioids in workers’ comp.  I’ve been speaking to folks in these states, and will report on those conversations, what is working, what isn’t, and what we can learn.

We’ll start with Texas, where Kim Haugaard of Texas Mutual has been working closely with TM’s Medical Director Nick Tsourmas MD – and pretty much everyone else at TM and in the provider community on this issue for years.  Notably, Texas has the advantage of a strong regulatory environment with clinical guidelines and strong UR rules.  While this combination makes it somewhat easier to address opioid overuse, the regs are only good if they are fully embraced.  That, Texas Mutual has done.

Here’s part of our conversation.

MCM – What was a key factor motivating TM to address opioids and drugs?

Kim – We are meeting with our actuaries constantly, monitoring the trend lines, average paid per claim and other data points.  We separate out claims with and without opioids.  [From those analyses, we learned] The longer claims were open, the higher the chance there were drugs involved, and drugs were the driving cost factor.  Once you address the drugs, you reduce length of disability.

MCM – What are the results of your efforts to date?

Kim – We have had a lot of success addressing opioids and all drug overuse, probably more than any other company. Our drug costs have seen a steep drop since Q1 2010.

Overall opioid usage is down by over 40%. I can tell you that of the 1,249 claims no longer receiving “N Drugs”, 46% of those injured workers are receiving no drugs whatsoever. The other ones have moved away from the N-status drugs to Y-status drugs. 

You may remember at AASCIF, Dr. Tsourmas presented the findings on a program that I implemented several years ago. For the top 400 most costly Rx claims, the average Rx cost per claim per year was $14,700. After our program – outreach for doctor-to-doctor, average cost per claim was $3300, average savings of $11,400 per claim.

MCM – What’s the key to your success?

Kim – You have to attack the drug issue from all angles, this is a team effort, involving prescribing doctors, and various carrier stakeholders, including, front-line staff, actuary, medical operations staff, medical director, legal, and the PBM.

MCM – You noted this is a team effort – who else is on your “team”?

Kim – We are working very closely with the Texas Medical Society and Pain Society, we’ve spoken at their conferences and met with physicians and physician leaders individually.  Some physicians we had issues with are now collaborating closely to address the opioid issue.

On drug testing, we are working with Millennium Labs on developing a “best practices” program, setting up testing protocols based on patient risk scores.

MCM – How do you focus your efforts?

Kim – In everything we do, we focus on outliers – reward the high performers and analyze and address the low performers.

What does this mean for you?

Yes, you can dramatically impact opioid overuse.  

While strong regulations are a big help, a) you have to use them effectively, and b) much of what Texas Mutual has done can be done anywhere – perhaps with a bit less success, but success nonetheless.


Jan
27

Sedgwick under KKR – quick takes

Talked with several folks in the industry about this deal, including Sedgwick CEO Dave North.  Couple points worth highlighting.

This has nothing to do with Mitchell International and there will not be any combination of the companies.  

For some reason a few folks are advancing the theory that there is some grand strategy at KKR involving buying up some/most/all work comp service firms (I exaggerate, I know) to build some Mega-Corp that will own the industry.

Please disabuse yourself of this notion.  Of course, KKR sees work comp services/P&C services as an attractive market, but that does NOT mean they are looking to mush a bunch of disparate entities together.  According to North, he “hasn’t had a word with anyone from Mitchell and there is nothing that is part of this deal that contemplates Mitchell as part of the scenario.”

I believe him.

As a side note, Stone Point (current owner of Sedgwick) owns/has owned several other work comp services businesses including Cunningham Lindsay and Genex.  There was very little communication between these entities, and a lot of competition.

Moreover, investment companies aren’t monolithic; they manage different internal investment funds, with different outside investors in those funds.  It is highly likely the investors in Mitchell are NOT the same as those buying into Sedgwick.

Sedgwick management is sticking around; many have also invested in the company going forward. That’s from several internal sources.

Finally, while management is staying, the same business model will be followed, and Sedgwick will remain Sedgwick, there will be changes – as North noted, “any time you have the backing of a company like KKR there should be opportunities for change that didn’t exist in the past.”

KKR is huge, has tremendous resources, and may well decide to deploy some of them to further enhance their new asset.  But they certainly wouldn’t have bought Sedgwick with the assumption they would make big changes.

You don’t pay a multiple in the double digits for a company that needs major changes.


Jan
27

Sedgwick’s been acquired

Investment firm KKR will buy a “majority interest” in TPA Sedgwick for $2.4 billion in a deal announced officially minutes ago.

The transaction is the latest of several high-multiple deals for workers’ comp assets, second only in size to Apax’s total cost for the combined OneCall/Align transactions. Estimates of the valuation are in the 11-12x on a trailing basis or perhaps around 10x of forecast earnings.  However, what isn’t known is exactly how much of Sedgwick KKR bought. It is likely management owns a piece of the company; I’d be somewhat surprised if the sellers – Hellman & Friedman and Stone Point – retain any significant stake.  I would speculate that the total valuation – after accounting for minority ownership – is between 10x – 11x of forecast earnings.

(I need to revise my expectations, as I’d forecast a sale price of “as much as $2.4 billion.”

Regardless, a double-digit valuation for a TPA is a pretty rare occurrence.

So, what does this mean?

First, there’s been no decrease in deal flow in the work comp space, and there are at least two others in process.  At some point this will slow down/end, perhaps because there’s nothing left to buy and/or prices get so high that even the most enthusiastic will stop bidding.

Second, investors that have been bidding on assets are now selling into the market. This tells me they see the opportunity as pretty darn attractive, making it hard to hold on to investments when they can sell them for double digit multiples.  Arguing with myself, perhaps this implies the deals will continue as today’s owners find the returns just too good to pass up.

Third, I’d expect current management will stay at Sedgwick.  Dave North et al have made the current investors happy indeed (doubling the value in four years), and KKR will want to continue that trajectory.  I don’t see North as ready to ride into the sunset just yet.

Fourth, don’t look for any combination of Sedgwick and KKR’s other recent P&C acquisition, Mitchell International.  Too much channel conflict, very different companies, little overlap, and synergies would be relatively small.

Fifth, times are relatively good for TPAs these days; that said the competition should see this as a loud and sustained wakeup call. New owners will demand even more top-line and bottom-line growth from Sedgwick, so expect they’ll be as competitive as ever – if not more so.

 

 


Jan
25

It’s (un)official – KKR is buying Sedgwick

The deal is close to done, a $2 billion transaction that will make KKR one of the biggest investors in the workers’ comp transaction business.  If it goes thru, Sedgwick will join bill review technology company Mitchell on KKR’s list of investments, raising questions about:

  • how/if/where the two companies will join forces or work together, and
  • what else is on KKR’s acquisition radar.

Sedgwick’s current owners, Hellman & Friedman and Stone Point, are going to do quite well on this transaction.  As I said a couple weeks ago,

Reports indicate Sedgwick’s earnings are around $200 million. With current multiples above 10x, a price in the $2 billion range is certainly possible; don’t be shocked if the final deal is worth as much as $2.4 billion.

There are a host of reasons for the TPA’s current owners to sell the company, with the primary reason likely the high valuations currently on offer.  Doubling one’s money over four years is reason enough for the owners to consider a deal; when one considers the (high) likelihood that H&F and Stone Point undoubtedly leveraged the deal, the RoI picture becomes even more compelling.

KKR is clearly betting big on P&C transactions – the Mitchell purchase and this deal represent over $3 billion in total investment, almost as much as Apax paid for OneCall Care Management and Align Networks. (however most of the price is likely debt as investors almost always leverage their investment capital).  To buyers, this makes sense, as bill review and claims processing are both “sticky” businesses; customers don’t like to move unless they HAVE to, making for good long-term relationships that, properly managed, generate increasing profits.

I’d expect the relationship between Mitchell and Sedgwick to become closer, however there may be some channel conflicts as other large payers may not like the joint ownership.  Undoubtedly Mitchell and KKR will move as quickly as they can to assure clients there will be no such issues, however competitors will, however subtly, raise doubts.  Recall there will be a “quiet period” during due diligence during which Mitchell et al won’t be allowed to say anything about anything.

Finally, Stone Point is still an investor in this space – they, along with lead investor Kelso, own PBM PMSI/Progressive.

What does this mean for you?

There’s no decrease in the private equity industry’s focus on workers comp; expect more deals in coming months.


Jan
24

Friday catch-up and fast reads

Physician dispensing – it’s not just for Americans any more!

From the Harvard Business Review comes this item; Chinese docs prescribe waaaay too many antibiotics – because that’s how they make money.

Antibiotics are often prescribed unnecessarily for colds in China, in part because hospitals sell medications directly to patients and doctors’ bonuses often depend on drug revenue, says a team led by Janet Currie of Princeton. In a past study by other researchers, two-thirds of patients visiting clinics with mild cold or flu symptoms received inappropriate prescriptions for antibiotics, and many were advised to take powerful “second-line” antibiotics that are supposed to be reserved for serious illnesses. These prescriptions impose substantial costs on patients, raise the risk of side effects, and foster growth of drug-resistant “superbugs,”

Here’s hoping WC docs don’t “reverse engineer” Chinese business practices.

Hiring

The Hartford is looking for a medical director; evidently Rob Bonner MD will be retiring.  This is one of those great opportunities for business-oriented work comp docs; the Hartford’s Medical Director has real authority and responsibility.

Journalism

Much as I respect the folks at R&I, their latest “editor’s choice” had me scratching my head about a piece from the Washington Examiner – It’s a climate-change denier piece asserting that we may be in for a century of cooling due to…wait for it…sunspots.

C’mon.  There have been 2528 peer-reviewed articles about climate change over the last year.  A grand total of one – yes, that’s one – rejected man-made global warming.  And that lone article was in the Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Principled and soundly-researched discussion is critically important – but only when it is reality-based.

Exchange enrollment

Exchange enrollment data is pretty mixed; numbers are way up in California and New York but most folks who are eligible for Medicaid or for subsidies via the Exchanges don’t know they are eligible.  Not surprisingly, the Latino enrollment data in California has been disappointing – to say the least.

On the federal side, enrollment seems to be much below expectations, even after the end-of-the-year push.  Whether things will pick up a lot before the March drop-dead date remains to be seen…

One factor affecting enrollment in many states may be that fourteen have enacted so-called “navigator suppression” laws; legislation that hinders/prevents/makes it difficult for the people who are supposed to help the uninsured enroll do their job. (thanks to Julie for the tip).

Impairment ratings

In one of the more esoteric  – but nonetheless significant conversations of the last week, I learned that many of the impairment ratings done in Texas are wrong – for a multitude of reasons.  Evidently those done by chiros are often (like 80% often) much higher than they should be, and medical doctors aren’t a whole lot better.  TX payers that aren’t reviewing ratings to make sure they are right may be paying out a whole lot more than they should – especially if those ratings are above 15%, the “magic number” where big payouts kick in.

Enjoy the frosty weekend – high this week in upstate NY has been 8 degrees.  Get out and enjoy!

 


Jan
21

Why don’t workers’ comp payers have pharmacists on staff?

I’m only aware of three major work comp insurers (Travelers, BWC-Ohio, Washington L&I) that have pharmacists on staff; the North Dakota State Fund does as well.

With pharmacy costs accounting for somewhere around 15% of total medical spend, that seems like a “miss”.  Yes, pharmacy costs have been flat in recent years, but the impact of drugs on work comp claim duration and the medical and indemnity expense associated with long-term drug use is quite significant.

Many payers have medical directors, nurses, and other clinicians on staff to help address medical issues; in some instances ALL medical issues are the purview of clinicians. Yet these payers don’t have pharmacists on staff, relying instead on medical folks.  Sure, they have knowledge of pharmacy, but nowhere near the depth and breadth of expertise resident in even the greenest pharmacist.

As physician dispensing of medications increases, payers begin (yes, most are just beginning) to address their long-term opioid users, off-label prescribing continues to grow, new medications come on the market, and compounding spreads, payers will find themselves at a disadvantage if they don’t have inhouse expertise.

Sure, PBMs have pharmacists on staff, and most are very, very experienced, understand pain management, and know work comp.  They have the added benefit of being “free”; they don’t increase overhead expenses.  But they work for the PBM, aren’t available on an ongoing basis to address the issues listed above, and if the insurer switches PBMs, that experience and corporate history disappears.

Twenty years ago rare was the insurer with any real medical expertise on staff. Claim adjusters were quite capable of handling medical issues, thank you.

It won’t  – at least it shouldn’t – take that long for insurers to see the wisdom of hiring pharmacists.

 

 


Jan
17

Friday catch-up and heads-up

Lots happening this week – here’s a few notable events.

First, WCRI’s webinar on physician dispensing, opioids, and physician prescribing patterns.  A couple key takeaways:

  • after FL banned doc dispensing of potent opioids, almost all the docs who were prescribing and dispensing Schedule II and III data switched to NSAIDs; far less potent pain killers.  Which leads one to wonder…how scummy is a doc who does this?
  • Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs – properly designed and implemented – dramatically reduce doctor and pharmacy shopping.

Much more was discussed; the underlying research on Florida’s changes can be found here.

One of the more creative marketing campaigns was launched this week by Acrometis; the Year of the Adjuster. An excellent infographic is here; pay attention to the campaign and offshoots thereof.   My bet is this dramatically raises Acrometis’ profile…

12 of the nation’s 50 most expensive hospitals are in California; thanks to California Healthline for the heads-up. To find out which are in your state, click here.

The Sedgwick sales process is well underway, with bids due (I’m guessing here) within the next week or two.  Don’t expect this will close quickly as there’s a lot to review.

Finally, a tech research firm has a rather bizarre piece out on Google Glass, the next “Killer App” in insurance.  Bizarre because:

  1. there hasn’t been a Killer App out yet, so this would be the First…
  2. given the rather slow tech adoption rate (to be kind) in the P&C insurance industry, I wouldn’t expect companies that spent a year approving MIcrosoft Office upgrades to jump on the Glass platform; they’ll spend much of their effort figuring out how to prevent employees from mis-using the technology before assessing how hard it will be to tie the device and output into their systems.

See you Monday!

 


Jan
15

Did Illinois’ work comp costs go down after reform?

Yes – at least medical prices did, but the drop wasn’t as much as the reduction in the fee schedule, and it was a LOT less for expensive procedures.  Those are the quick takeaways from WCRI’s report (published yesterday).

The reforms brought a 30 percent reduction in the medical fee schedule as of September 2011, yet:

  • Professional service prices dropped 24 percent, with the 6 percent difference driven by lower provider participation in networks (thus fewer providers delivering care at a discount) and higher prices from in-network providers.
  • Radiology prices dropped 13 percent for MRIs and 22 percent for X-Rays, and ER services also only dropped by 18 percent; other than that, most service groups saw prices decrease somewhere in the mid-twenty-percent range.
  • Utilization appears to be on the increase, as WCRI’s research found “more complex office visits with higher prices were billed more frequently in Illinois.”
  • Surgeries are still waaaay more expensive in IL than in the median study state 2 1/2 times to be precise.  That’s 242 percent more than employers pay in Michigan...

What does this mean for you?

1.  Reducing prices does not lead to a corresponding decrease in costs as providers figure out how to make up for lost revenue by doing more, and more expensive, services.

2.  Kudos to WCRI for getting this info out so quickly; in the past it has taken much longer, so they’ve upped their game considerably. This makes the information much more actionable for payers and regulators alike who can figure out where potential issues lie and take steps to mitigate problems.