Mar
11

Health care delivery varies a LOT – and there’s your opportunity

So, medicine is a science right?

If it is, then the delivery of care should be consistent across the country for patients with identical conditions, right.

Absolutely not.

That’s the quick takeaway from a terrific panel this morning at WCRI; below is the detail.

I’ve long been intrigued by the huge variation in medical care delivery across geography – why medical care for identical conditions for the same type of patient varies greatly from place to place is pervasive, fascinating, and, more to the point, driver of low quality and high cost care.

Dr Jon Lurie of tjhe Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy is one of the nation’s leading experts on this issue.  I’ll get right to the big finding –

There’s tremendous variance in “preference and supply-sensitive medical care” across hospital regions, defined as medical care for procedures such as vertebroplasty, spine surgery, total joint arthroplasty, and, in reality, most musculoskeletal procedures.

The most gross example is vertebroplasty, which varies by a hundred-fold.

That’s right, if you live in one area, you may be 100 times more likely to get this procedure than in another area.

Frequency of the medical procedures done in work comp varies widely across the country, and even within states.  Discussing one type of procedure, authors of a study found; “orthopedic surgeons’ opinions or enthusiasm for the procedure was the dominant modifiable determinant of ara variation.”

In English, doctors’ opinions and enthusiasm – not science, evidence, or outcomes – greatly influences what procedures get done how often.

Shockingly, reimbursement also affects procedure usage.  Washington and California have very different approaches to spinal fusion due to regulatory influences, with WA regulating the procedure much more tightly.  As a result, in WA, costs are lower, outcomes much better, there are far fewer spinal fusions, and the surgeries that are performed are less complex.

Yep, costs are lower, outcomes are better – and, not coincidentally, patients are much better served due to WA’s widespread use of evidence-based medical guidelines.

Next up was WCRI’s Dr Oleysa Fomenko – who got everyone’s attention with the opening statement “why are injured workers in one state three times more likely to get surgery than workers in another state?”

Key takeaway – in general, the higher the rate of surgery in group health, higher the rate of surgery in WC.  So, a payer can look at Medicare data and get a fairly accurate picture of what they can expect to see among their work comp patients.

However (there’s always a however), states that pay really, really well for surgery for work comp patients have a lot more surgeries than one would expect.

Alas, the Land of Lincoln is, once again, our poster child for bad outcomes – the work comp surgery rate is 2.5 times higher than one would expect, due perhaps to the $11,000 higher reimbursement for the procedure in IL vs the other study states.

NCCI’s Barry Lipton led off the panel with a discussion of cost variation across six states, using a methodology that took out fee schedule variations. The takeaway – costs for initial care for knee injuries varied by 71% across the six states, with KY CO and IL well above the other three (MD IN MO).

For knee injuries, one of the differentiators is, not surprisingly, utilization – with MD IN and MO exhibiting low utilization.  Utilization of surgery and physical medicine [PM] are the primary drivers.  There are also differences between and among the high-cost states. KY has much higher surgical costs, with IL spending a lot more on PM.

The other differentiator is the cost associated with diagnoses; cost per diagnosis varied widely across the study states.

Across the three high cost states, surgical utilization accounts for 35% of the cost compared to 23% in the low cost states; in contrast diagnostic imaging accounts for 32% in low cost states and and 24% in high cost states (other cost areas are pretty similar).

That said, looking at elbows and knees, most of the interstate variation is due to surgical and PM utilization AND how specific conditions get different treatment in different states.

For those patient and nerdy enough to make it this far, give yourself a new pocket protector as a reward.

What does this mean for you?

Medicine is a lot art and varies widely, and therein lies the problem – and for smart payers, the opportunity.

 


Mar
11

Takeaways from WCRI Day One

WCRI has become a MUST DO conference for all involved in the industry; there are over 400 attending this year.  Here’s a quick morning-after takeaway list.

  • Differing views on the afternoon devoted to Opt-Out; some felt it was too much time for too esoteric a topic; it’s only available in two states.
  • In contrast, others felt it was time well spent as there is a growing interest in opt out in several states, so getting the facts (such as they are) and hearing from pro- and opponents at the same venue was quite valuable.
  • John Ruser “fits” very well.  John has a style and persona that is ideal for WCRI’s new leader; he is humble, thoughtful, and very, very knowledgeable. Kudos to WCRI’s Board for their selection of John.
  • There is an epic battle shaping up in California over UR and IMR between the self-described “claimant advocates” and employer communities.  As this is taking place in the state with over 20% of total work comp premium, the stakes could not be higher.
  • There’s a LOT of work yet to be done to understand the potential impact of ACA and health reform on comp.  This is an area where WCRI needs to spend a lot more time understanding what actually happens in the patient encounter and billing decision process, how the health care delivery “system” functions, how financial flows work in group health, and what motivates physicians.

This morning, a deep dive into disability payments and drivers thereof…


Mar
10

More than one truth – California workers’ comp

Before we jump into the above-cited topic, courtesy of the ever-enlightening Alex Swedlow, are Myths and Facts about work comp

  • States with larger work comp agencies do NOT have higher work comp costs.  Nor is there a correlation due to red- or blue-state status.
  • There is no correlation between fee schedules and total medical costs
  • The arrival of an attorney on a claim (a quarter of CA claimants have attorneys) directly and significantly increases claim costs.
  • There’s a strong correlation between attorneys per capita and work comp costs. Alex shared a great heat map illustrating this in various regions of Cali; shockingly SoCal has higher attorney involvement rates.

So, why is California’s WC medical so hard to manage?

  1. It’s a very big state in terms of people and size
  2. Almost no shared risk; copays, deductibles, etc that influence buying decisions
  3. Disputes and dispute resolution have been a major issue

It’s this last issue that has gotten much of the attention – so CWCI has done a lot of research and published numerous studies on UR, IMR, dispute resolution and related matters.

There are two key takeaways – the vast majority of requested services flow thru the system without any review, and there’s a core group of bad actor docs who are flooding the dispute resolution system with requests for services that they know full well are going to be rejected. (this last is my interpretation).

Typically, once a utilization review system is put in place along with clinical guidelines, providers learn what will and will not be approved, and modify their behavior accordingly. For some reason, that hasn’t been the case in California, where the volume of IMR decisions increased by 15% from 2014 – 2015 – the opposite of what happened in TX.

Digging deeper, the aberrant behavior is concentrated in SoCal, due primarily to a relatively tiny number of physicians in Los Angeles.

In fact a mere 10 providers were responsible for one of every eight IMR decisions. And, 128 docs generated 48% of all IMR decisions.

These appeals are driven in large part by pharmacy – California’s annual spend on WC drugs is around a billion dollars, and about half of IMR decisions revolve around pharmaceuticals.  If CA implements a formulary, this spend could be cut by 15% to perhaps 50%.

Clearly the issue in California is NOT the wholesale denial of necessary care. Rather, it IS the fact that a very, very few providers are abusing the system while trying to deliver crappy medicine to their work comp patients.


Mar
10

How workers fare under work comp varies across states

That’s the top takeaway from the second presentation at WCRI’s annual meeting.

The researchers interviewed 6000 injured workers on topics including access to and satisfaction with health care, recovery of health and functioning, and speed/sustainability of return to work. (preliminary findings, results may change); efforts were made to control for factors that might affect results.

Across the 15 states, “substantial” return to work varied from 91% in IN to 81% in GA (sustained across at least 30 days, with the median of 14%.

My reaction is probably same as your’s; that’s awful.

Digging into the data indicates there’s a lot more to this.

  • there’s a very solid improvement in health status across the surveyed population post injury;
  • however the average respondent is still significantly less functional/has a significantly lower health status post-injury
  • on average one in six injured workers reported “big problems” getting the medical services they wanted. (I know, that care may or may not be medically necessary or indicated)
    • a third of those workers said the problem was due to their employer or insurer discouraging them from going to a provider they wanted to see or getting a procedure (again, paraphrasing).
  • 14% of workers were “very dissatisfied” with overall medical care
  • Wisconsin consistently ranked better than most or all other study states; it’s also one of the highest medical cost states.
    • David Deitz MD noted that all the research into health care costs and quality show no correlation between expenditures and outcomes.

Kudos to WCRI for conducting this research; ultimately the work comp system and stakeholders therein should be judged based on outcomes.  That said, don’t make the mistake of taking results at face value.

Digging into data always reveals details that may confound or contradict initial impressions.


Mar
10

Reimbursement’s effect on case shifting to work comp

WCRI’s annual meeting began with a presentation on the relationship of fee schedules to case shifting.  Put another way, does physician compensation affect categorization of claims as work comp?

This followed their previous study (discussed here) on the impact of capitation on case shifting (kudos to WCRI for allowing me to present a different view in their webinar on the topic).

(note the report discussed herein is based on preliminary findings and subject to change)

The basic question addressed was “do higher fee schedules increase the number of workers’ comp cases?”  More specifically, do treating docs categorize claims as work comp because they make more money under work comp?

The research looked at knee arthroscopies across a couple dozen states; there was some consistency in prices paid in those states for group health claims; notably several states had much higher reimbursement for work comp than group health (CT, IL, NJ are three).

Key finding – “A 20% growth in WC reimbursement rates for office visit related services equates to a 6% increase in the odds of a soft tissue injury being called work related.” [paraphrase, may not be exact quote]

In contrast, there was no difference in trauma-related cases, which implies providers

David Deitz, MD noted a key consideration not addressed – the microgeography of health care varies quite dramatically within states and may be an important driver; this may be a fruitful area for further investigation. (the Truven database doesn’t allow for this type of analysis) Dr Deitz also noted the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons evidently recommends physicians consider type of coverage when determining whether or not to perform surgery.  (paraphrasing Dr Deitz)

Notably, patients may get significantly richer benefits if the claim is determined to be work comp due to indemnity benefits.

The researcher, Dr Olesya Fomenko, determined that two states in particular saw significant financial impact of this; there was a multi-million dollar impact in IL and TX due to the higher medical costs AND indemnity expense associated with the “higher number” of work comp cases due to case shifting.

A key question not addressed is this: how is the treating doc’s pay affected by the payer type?  Not the overall reimbursement differential, but the payment to the doc who actually makes the causation determination.

 


Mar
8

Headed to WCRI…

It’s that time of year – the annual gathering of the work comp experts/geeks in Boston to hear the latest research from those who are really the experts.

Along with discussions of physician dispensing of drugs (can we PLEASE kill this beast!?) to worker outcomes to opt out (two sessions that I am relying on to get me completely up to speed) it’s going to be a brain-filling couple of days.

For those interested in work comp – that includes you, hedge funds and other investors – this is a must-do.  Registration’s still open here.


Mar
3

Dr Glenn Pransky – one of work comp’s great ones

Recently I had the honor of meeting the nation’s foremost expert on disabilityGlenn Pransky M.D.  What a wonderful gentleman.

Glenn is the Director of Liberty Mutual’s Center for Disability Research; he is an occ med physician and has his Master’s in Occupational Health as well and has authored over a hundred articles, research papers, and book chapters.  That’s all quite impressive; what really struck me is how approachable, genuine, and open Glenn is. [my use of his first name is intentional, Glenn is completely without pretension or ego.]

His passion is disability; reducing its occurrence, mitigating its impact, improving the lives of those with physical limitations.  The research Glenn and colleagues have conducted includes seminal work on low back pain’s impact on disability; age and job tenure and their relationship to disability duration; the impact of pain on disability; the effect of supervisors’ leadership on return to work for workers with back ailments.

And that’s just what he did last year; if you want to fully grasp the depth and breadth of Glenn’s work, peruse this list.

He will be the first to note that there are a lot of co-workers at the Center and co-authors and fellow researchers that have also done yeoman work, and that’s true.  But Glenn’s contribution is second to none, and its clear that his leadership, focus, and keen intellect has had a wide, deep, and overwhelmingly positive impact.

Kudos to Liberty Mutual for its foresight in setting up the Center almost two decades ago, and for continuing to support its work.  The Center’s contribution to the betterment of America’s workers, in fact to all of us, has been significant indeed. [full disclosure – I was employed by Liberty for several years back in the 1990’s.]


Mar
2

Examworks released their Q4 and 2015 earnings report last week, while Clinical Solutions boss Ken Loffredo and several of his colleagues left the company rather abruptly, with Ken departing ten months before his contract was up.

First, key takeaways from the earnings call, followed by my take.

  1. organic growth in the US increased by 0.7%
    ManagedCareMatters – Given work comp claim (Exam’s core source of business) frequency continues to decline, that’s not surprising.
  2. Execs claim they’ve signed a “national account” and another will close later this year.
    MCM – From talking to investors, there’s a misconception about so-called “national accounts.  Namely, this just gives Exam a license to hunt; their field sales force still has to go out and beat the bushes to get adjusters to refer cases to Exam. Notably, I know of NO national payers that use ANY IME provider exclusively; most have several.
  3. Exam execs believe that they are killing off small mom-and-pop IME firms that can’t compete w Exam on price or service
    MCM – I’ve spoken with several IME firms of varying size; all claim to be competing effectively with Exam
  4. Exam claims it has 15% of the US IME business.
    MCM – Let’s dig into the math…

    1. 2015 US revenues were $511 million.
    2. Estimating the clinical solutions group business accounted for, say, $60 million of the $511 million, IME revenues totaled somewhere around $400 – $450 million.
    3. So, EXAM believes the US IME business totals between $2.7 – $3.0 billion
    4. That’s around twice as high as my best estimate, which is based on actual interviews with major payers. [happy to have you check my assumptions and math]
  5. “We estimate that only 20% of claims require IMEs.”
    MCM – Interested in hearing from folks in work comp or disability; what percentage of total claims have IMEs?
    UPDATE – from a former WC Insurer CEO:
    20%? 20% of what? There is no way we ever had that volume of total claims with an IME, ever. We would have been in perpetual litigation…to have 20% of all claims in a standard carrier go to IME … just seems crazy to me.”
  6. don’t expect many more acquisitions of IME firms
  7. document management firm ABI was acquired six weeks ago; execs seem to think they’ll be able to convince their IME customers to use ABI for “the vast majority of their claims”

Other observations

  • Net income from operations dropped by almost half from 2014 to 2015.
  • Pricing is a complex issue.  Often there is a “flat” price which gets inflated with add-ons such as rush fees, documentation prep fees, nurse review fees, complexity surcharges and the like.  Thus, unsophisticated buyers often think they are getting one price – and end up paying much more.
  • Not sure I understand management’s thinking re ABI; almost all P&C insurers currently use a document management firm; Xerox is a major player in this business and is the industry leader.  If Exam is intending to compete with Xerox for broad-based document management, that will be a big challenge.
  • Sources indicate the Clinical Solutions Group (acquired about 18 months ago) isn’t doing so well.  Those who follow the Medicare Set-Aside business aren’t surprised; Exam’s pricey acquisition of Gould and Lamb was seen as a head scratcher.  The ASN/MedAllocators purchase a few months later may have been an attempt to fix G&L by bringing in experienced management and complementary business lines. With the departure of Loffredo, chief lieutenant Kevin Mahoney, and others the future of Exam Clinical Solutions seems rather cloudy.

Perhaps the new ABI business will turn out better than the Clinical Solutions venture. And that’s no slam against Loffredo et al; my take is they were brought in to patch a very leaky ship while sailing it in a very competitive race.

It would have required a ton of resources to patch, bail, and sail, resources which weren’t made available.


Mar
1

WCRI’s John Ruser on today, tomorrow, and next year

Late last week I sat down with WCRI President/CEO John Ruser to get his views on his first few months at the helm, find out what’s on the agenda at the WCRI conference next week (if you haven’t registered, get your fingers over here), and learn about future areas of focus.

MCM – What has been the most eye-opening for you as you’ve moved from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to WCRI?

Ruser – First off, it is an honor to take the helm of such a well-regarded organization with such a diverse membership and to be working with such an intelligent and talented group of colleagues who are committed to publishing high-quality, credible and independent research. Along those lines, what has been most eye-opening has been the tremendous support for the research from all stakeholders in the workers’ compensation community. I’ve always knew WCRI was well-regarded, but when you are in the position I am in and interacting with people all across the country, you really understand how truly special WCRI is and how important the mission is to provide policymakers and other stakeholders with the data they need to make more informed decisions.

MCM – What has been the most fun?

Ruser – Working for BLS, you put out data and that is it. However, WCRI has so much interaction with the workers’ compensation community through their rigorous quality assurance process (i.e., reviewers, state advisory committees, etc.). The other thing that makes WCRI different is our mission, which is to be a catalyst for significant improvements in workers’ compensation systems. So that is what is fun, to see the research being used by the community it is seeking to help.

MCM – What will attendees learn at WCRI’s conference next week?

Ruser – A big area of interest this year is opt-out. We have two sessions on opt-out that will provide a deep dive from multiple viewpoints. In addition, researchers from the Dartmouth Atlas project and NCCI will join our staff to discuss interstate variation in medical treatments. The conference will also include the latest research on prescribing of opioids across the country, which is an issue that garners great attention in and outside the workers’ compensation community. We are hopeful that presentations on the issue lead to changes.

MCM – Do you see changes in the research focus of WCRI going forward?

Ruser – Over the next two years, I expect we will be doing a lot of work on treatment guidelines; their impact on outcomes, procedures, costs, and injured worker outcomes. We are also working on an update on injured worker outcomes with surveys of injured workers. Areas covered by the surveys include access to and satisfaction with medical care, return to work timing, and earnings loss. There has also been a lot of interest in our work on case-shifting, so we will be doing a study to see if there is evidence of case shifting due to high deductible health plans.

MCM – Can you give a bit more detail on treatment guidelines? What’s driving that focus?

Ruser – In discussions with our members and other stakeholders, treatment guidelines have risen to the top of the priority list. There is interest in learning what leads providers to use treatment guidelines and to what extent treatment guidelines affect outcomes. Utilization review (UR) and compliance issues affect the former. We want to better understand what kind of programs are out there and how are they being used, do treating physicians comply with guidelines?, are denied services paid?, what are providers’ views of these programs.

We have begun semi-structured interviews with physicians in Louisiana re guidelines, and have seen a wide range of responses. We are learning a lot about providers’ views and, at the same time, gaining experience and expertise in collecting, analyzing, and using information from free-form surveys.

I expect we will use what we’re learning about text mining in another area – triggers of claimant attorney involvement. This gives us an opportunity to explore using broad questions to collect unstructured data, and then code that data to provide information. There is tremendous opportunity to use less-structured information in our research.


Feb
29

What job?

Many high-injury rate jobs that drive lots of work comp premiums and services won’t exist in ten years.  And lots of low-injury rate jobs will disappear as well.

How we prepare for this – or rather how you prepare for this – will separate the survivors from the corpses.

A bit of historical perspective; twenty-plus years ago when I worked at MetraComp, Lockheed Martin’s Fort Worth plant was a customer.  The workforce there was highly trained, averaged around 48 years old, and paid very, very well to make fighter jets.

MetraComp’s contract with LM had a big success fee baked-in.  MetraComp would be rewarded for improving disability results, and penalized – rather painfully – if future results were close to or, God forbid, below historical results.

Then the Air Force decided to stop buying new fighter jets.   The average worker had 17 years to go till retirement, was making great money, and there were zero jobs in the area that paid anything close to the hourly rate, much less provided LM’s benefits.  Add in the physical nature of the job – crawling around inside really small spaces attaching tiny parts requiring lots of repetitive movements.

The injury rate jumped, while opportunities for re-employment suddenly dried up.  MetraComp got killed.

Today, we’re looking at a future with a whole lot of Lockheed Martins.  

A robust and well-documented research project estimates almost half of US employment is at risk of disappearing.

Here’s just one industry where we’re going to see big changes.

Trucking employs 3.5 million drivers today, paid about $40k a year.  Good-paying jobs that don’t require a college degree, a rarity in today’s economy, jobs that will disappear with autonomous driving. When they do, jobs in truck stops, motels, and restaurants will dry up.  And the folks who drive the trucks and work in those truck stops, motels, and restaurants will not spend their wages in small towns, rural areas and cities.

BTW, truck driving is the most common job in 38 states…

For now, trucking is a great business.  For now.  Sure, there aren’t enough drivers today, but those jobs aren’t going to exist in 10 years.

So here’s the two questions you need to ponder.

Are you insuring/serving a thousand Lockheed Martin jet factories?

Where are you going to re-employ the truckers, hotel staff, wait staff, and mechanics?