May
5

Coventry’s 2011 Q1 work comp results

Last week Coventry released their Q1 2011 earnings report, and things are looking good.
First, the workers comp results. Revenues were up slightly, to $191.6 million, a 4% increase over the prior year’s quarter. For the last few months, Coventry’s new CFO Randy Giles has been immersed in the business prior to assuming his new role. Given the inordinate profitability of the comp sector, it’s not surprising Giles was focused on WC; the company is relying on the cash from WC to fund it’s investment in other areas as it prepares for the brave new world of post-reform healthcare in 2014.
Overall, the Louisiana suit is still dragging on Coventry, as it placed “$150.5 million into escrow to fund a preliminary settlement of the Louisiana provider class action charge as disclosed in the Q4 2010.” Note that this is a preliminary settlement reserve; there may – or may not – be an additional allocation when the final settlement is determined. And there’s also the possibility the suit will be overturned at some point.
While Coventry doesn’t report earnings for work comp, word is it remains extraordinarily profitable, driven in part by price increases pushed thru for network business over the last eighteen months or so.
Next week – after NCCI – we’ll look at Coventry’s other results.


May
4

Workers comp pricing – where’s it headed?

After my post yesterday, I received a couple of ‘what are you smoking’ messages from industry colleagues reacting to my note on firming pricing for work comp premiums. (in fairness, I was reporting on a MarketScout study…)
Well, here are a couple other news items that may indicate where pricing is heading.
From Fitch Ratings (via PropertyCasualty360) comes this rather alarming item:
“Workers’ compensation saw the most severe underwriting losses, the report notes, with a combined ratio of 113.3. [emphasis added] “While the workers’ compensation line benefited from reform efforts in various states and continued declines in claims frequency, claims severity in this segment has steadily trended upward,” Fitch notes. The rating agency adds that revenue was hurt by exposure declines as employment levels and payrolls fell during the recession.”
Now that employment and business activity is picking up, I expect we’ll see a bump in frequency as well – not a structural change, but a reaction to faster pace of work, more temps working in unfamiliar jobs, more overtime. This, combined with the tough employment market for the long-term unemployed (can’t go back to work if there aren’t any jobs you are trained for) will likely result in a double whammy – more claims, and more severe claims.
Add to this the recent heavy losses due to catastrophes abroad (Japan) and at home (flooding, tornados) and the financial implications thereof, and it looks like work comp carriers and self insured employers are going to be paying more for reinsurance and stop loss coverage.
In ‘normal’ times a combined ratio of 113 would be tough enough, but with interest rates at near-historic lows and an uncertain investment environment, work comp insurers – and reinsurers – will be hard-pressed to make up the losses with investment income.
What does this mean for you?
A hardening – but not yet hard – market looks increasingly likely this year.


May
3

What happened last week?

A family matter required my full attention last week, which was why you didn’t see any new posts on Managed Care Matters. A lot happened which we’ll reprise here quickly.
Alex Swedlow of CWCI published another report on the ongoing disaster in California, namely the rampant overuse of narcotics by workers comp claimants. This latest update focused on the use of fentanyl, a narcotic that is between 75 and 100 times more potent than oral morphine.
Fentanyl is NOT indicated for musculo-skeletal injuries, yet it was prescribed for almost 3500 claims out of the total population of sixteen thousand plus claims. Fourteen hundred claims with the diagnosis of ‘medical back problems without spinal cord involvement’ were prescribed fentanyl.
As with the top opioid prescribers, the top ten percent of docs writing scripts for fentanyl wrote the vast majority – in this case 84% of all scripts came from 917 docs, with the average doc writing over fifty scripts for fentanyl.
Actiq and Fentora are orally-administered versions of fentanyl – and are NOT FDA approved for injuries or conditions occurring in workers comp. Nevertheless, Swedlow et al found 77 claimants had scripts for these two wildly expensive drugs.
The ongoing effort to reform work comp in Illinois seems to be moving more sideways than forwards, with competing proposals and bills, intensive lobbying, and a bit of disarray on the business side all contributing to a very, very murky picture.
Meanwhile, there was a bit of good news on the work comp pricing front, as MarketScout reported that they are seeing more favorable pricing trends of late with rates essentially flat in March after pricing firmed in previous months. This mirrors news from the broader property and casualty lines, which, while still pressured by abundant capacity, seem to be showing more resistance to price concessions.
Finally, thanks to Sandy Blunt for the tip – USAToday ran an editorial last week noting 18,000 people a year die from prescription drug abuse. Eighteen thousand.
For the first time in many years, MCM won’t be reporting ‘live’ from the RIMS conference. Too much going on to attend the annual property and casualty confab – work and the west coast location – and the conflict with NCCI’s annual issues symposium later this week make it impracticable to get to Vancouver.
For those going to RIMS, have fun in Vancouver – and make sure to try the sushi – it’s outstanding.


Apr
21

A hardening workers comp market?

Conditions look ripe for a hardening of the workers comp market later this year. I’ve been known to get just a bit ahead of myself in my predictions about lots of things – and this time may be no different. That said, the stars look to be getting closer to alignment, with profits up, underwriting losses increasing, and medical costs heading north as well.
Yesterdays’ PropertyCasualty 360 brought news that P&C insurers’ “2010 net income rose to $34.7 billion from $28.7 billion the year before, the industry’s net losses on underwriting for the year grew $7.4 billion compared to 2009.”
So, you say, how could the market be hardening be income is going up? Doesn’t that lead to more entrants to the market, more capital chasing less business?
Well, perhaps. But there’s a couple other things going on that weigh against a soft market.
First, insurers’ results aren’t very good. Last year’s 6.5 percent margin compares poorly to 9.1 percent, the average for last fifty years or so. As investors like to see a nice steady improvement in margins and a rosy outlook, those numbers are likely going to discourage the big money folks from allocating billions to the P&C insurance business.
The news from California isn’t encouraging either. The state fund’s loss ratio is above 157%.
157%.
Nationally, NCCI reports the picture is getting increasingly gloomy. This from Joan Collier’s report:
– After very minor underwriting losses in 2007 and 2008, the combined ratio for workers’ compensation (private carriers) shot up nine points in 2009–the largest single year increase since the mid-1980s.
– Deteriorating underwriting results, combined with a record low interest rate environment, left the line in an only slightly better-than-break-even position after investment income is considered.
– Combining the underwriting loss with the investment gains, the result is a pre-tax operating gain of 1.6 percent, the worst result since the 0.9 percent gain of 2003.
When you add a strengthening economy, growth in employment, and a faster pace of work – and the likely outcome of all that, which is an increase in claim frequency, coupled with the increased severity we’ve been experiencing for some time now, and the near-term outlook for workers comp doesn’t look so bright.
What does this mean for you?
A tighter market by the end of 2011 and increasing prices.


Apr
14

The future of health reform – lessons from workers comp

The current political and cultural divide over health reform is not new – in fact, a century ago a very similar debate took place, and the result may be instructive.
At the turn of the century courts were stuffed full of tort cases brought against employers by workers injured in industrial accidents. Workers had no other recourse besides the court system, and for the years leading up to 1911, the courts offered little hope. That began to change in 1911, when New York passed legislation requiring employers to pay for industrial accidents. The day after the bill passed, a Earl Ives, a railroad worker, sprained his ankle while signaling to an engineer. His employer took the case to court, saying it was Ives’ responsibility to be more careful.
Ultimately, the court found in favor of the railroad. This from Peter Rousmaniere’s recent piece in Risk and Insurance:
“…what drove Werner’s (judge in the Ives case) reasoning were cultural values. He magnified the responsibility of the self-reliant worker within his or her immediate sphere of influence. He chose, in effect, a narrative that made sense a generation before Ives’ accident.
New York voters overrode Ives with a constitutional amendment in 1913. Other states responded by crafting legislative proposals meant to be challenge-proof.
The rapid and broad acceptance of the new system was mainly due to a new angle of vision on the individual at work. The cause of work accidents now was neither the worker nor the employer but industrial employment itself. The new mantra of a work accident “arising out of and in the course of employment” skirted the question of causality.”
Workers comp took hold across the country, and within a decade most states had passed some form of comprehensive workers comp legislation.
There are a couple reasons why employers’ efforts to battle workers comp legislation stopped. First, on a national scale, the cultural issues noted by Peter overtook the laissez faire theology of early industrial America.
Second, employers were starting to lose more and more court cases, an occurrence that struck fear into management and owners. Work comp was seen as a ‘less worse’ alternative to the increasing number of increasing verdicts.
Third, the growing influence of organized labor was being felt in corporate boardrooms around the country, and management wanted to eliminate industrial accidents as an issue.
So what does this have to do with health reform?
Health care is reaching a crisis point. Within six years, family premiums will exceed $30,000, plus out of pocket costs
In an increasingly global economy, American employers are going to abandon ideology when confronted by the stark reality that they cannot and will not ever be able to compete if they aren’t relieved of the burden of health care costs.
Similarly, taxpayers (as we’re seeing every day) cannot and will not pay for ever-increasing health care benefit costs for Medicare, Medicaid, and public employees. But those programs, especially Medicare, control a LOT of votes. Thus politicians will be forced to come up with cost-reducing solutions that are dramatically different from the feeble attempts from Washington to date (and I include both parties in that).
Ryan’s solution is no solution at all – in actuality it is nothing more than a ‘throwing up of the hands and abandoning any pretense of cost control.’. And, it’s from one of the guys who voted for the single largest increase in entitlement programs since Medicare – Part D.
The Accountable Care Act isn’t a solution either, but it contains the seeds of real change, specifically with the IPAC.
What does this mean for you?
When things no longer can continue, they won’t. We saw that with workers comp exactly a century ago, and we will see that with health care within five years.


Apr
12

News you might hear at RIMS

The annual property and casualty conference/gathering of the tribes known as RIMS is slated for Vancouver BC the first week in May. A great city, terrific restaurants, and lots to do around town.
I’ll miss it this year – too much client work and I’ll be at NCCI’s Annual Meeting later that week. While it’s a (much) smaller affair, it is also highly focused on work comp, content-rich, and well-attended by industry pros. Can’t do both, so NCCI it is.
While I won’t be liveblogging from RIMS, I daresay there will be more than a couple newsworthy items that will generate a lot of buzz. Here’s what I’m hearing, and what may be ‘ready for prime time’ by May 1.
Word is giant work comp insurer Chartis (formerly AIG) is going to dump Coventry’s bill repricing system in favor of Medata. While Medata CEO Cy King won’t comment, I’ve heard this from two separate sources, both very knowledgeable about the process. Reportedly, Medata beat out StrataCare and Mitchell.
This would be a big win for Medata; a very big win.
UPDATE – Got a call from an AIG exec this afternoon who assured me no final decision has been made.
PT firm Align Network is on the block. Multiple potential buyers are looking at the company, and I’d guess (yes, that’s a guess) a deal will be consummated this year. Align has grown rapidly, based in large part on management’s strong industry contacts and relationships. The company has a customer-service-heavy operational model that some adjusters and nurse case managers like a lot; the scalability of that model will have a big impact on the multiple.
There’s a good bit of activity in the work comp PBM world, with several large payers looking to improve their results this year. With WC pharmacy costs spiking up near double digits last year (my estimate), drugs are once again in the spotlight. Expect there to be a lot of activity around PBMs’ booths, and even more in their hospitality suites and more discreet locations.
A couple other deal-related items are brewing; if they get closer to completion before RIMS I expect we’ll hear about it/them.


Apr
11

Is justice on the horizon in North Dakota?

For over two years I’ve been following – with a strong sense of outrage and disgust – the travails of Sandy Blunt as he’s been pilloried by the prosecuting and investigatory authorities in North Dakota. At long last it appears there’s hope justice will be done.
The prosecutor who’s vindictive and unethical practices have made a travesty of justice is about to face her own fate. At the end of June, Cynthia Feland will be tried by a Disciplinary Board under the authority of the North Dakota Supreme Court for prosecutorial misconduct.
While Ms Feland tries to make light of the charges, the facts (something she’s quite unused to dealing with) are most definitely not in her favor.
In 2009, there were 17 cases that went thru the Disciplinary Board Panel Hearing; that’s where Feland is headed. And the odds aren’t good.
Only 2 cases were dismissed. Of the remaining cases, the Panel reprimanded the attorney in 6, the Supreme Court suspended the attorney in seven, and disbarred the offender in 2.
Let’s do the numbers.
– Feland has a twelve percent chance of acquittal – or about one in eight. She’s got equal chance of being disbarred outright.
– She’s got a thirty-six percent chance of reprimand, the next ‘most favorable’ outcome.
– It’s more likely (forty-two percent chance) she’ll be suspended (which would likely mean she loses her judgeship, which she won in an election last year).
So Feland has an 88% chance of being disciplined, disbarred, or having her license to practice suspended.
This has been going on far too long, and at a personal and professional cost to Sandy that’s just appalling. But it’s not just Sandy who’s suffered. All of us who work in this industry, who push hard to do the right thing, to deliver better results for injured workers, their families, and employers, are being penalized by this injustice.
Sandy Blunt was persecuted because he didn’t accept the status quo. He wasn’t willing to go along to get along. He required more of his employees at the North Dakota state work comp fund, more than just punching a clock and doing their time. Sandy set standards for performance and responsiveness that some couldn’t meet, and rather than acknowledging their own shortcomings, they turned on the person the State tasked with turning around their poor performance.
And the justice system, and many – but assuredly not all – of the people of North Dakota were complicit.
Feland’s hearing will take about two days. It’s to be held in the largest hearing room in the court building. It’s going to be gratifying to see the person who’s tried to ruin one of the finest people I know get her comeuppance.


Mar
30

Rick Scott and drugs – an ‘inconsistent’ position

This am’s WorkCompCentral reported that Florida Gov. Rick Scott spoke out in favor of a ban on physician dispensing of Scheduled drugs – those medications regulated/tracked by the DEA.
It’s indeed encouraging that Scott has finally decided to do something positive about the pill mills that write scripts for more oxycontin than all other states combined. But the Gov, citing what can only be called specious arguments, still opposes a Prescription Drug Monitoring Program.
According to Jim Saunder’s piece in HealthNews Florida, “Scott also at least partially endorsed a House proposal to prevent doctors from dispensing drugs in their offices. Scott, however, added a caveat that such a ban should include “appropriate” exceptions — and didn’t elaborate about what those exceptions might be.”
Moreover, Scott’s new position does nothing to address the $34 million problem.
That’s how much more Florida’s employers are paying for drugs dispensed by docs for workers comp patients than they would if the drugs were dispensed by retail pharmacies.

Here’s how WCRI described the issue:
“Cambridge, MA-based WCRI found that the average payment per claim for prescription drugs in Florida’s workers’ compensation system was $565–38 percent higher than the median of the study states.
The main reason for the higher prescription costs in Florida was that some physicians wrote prescriptions and dispensed the prescribed medications directly to their patients. When physicians dispensed prescription drugs, they often were paid much more than pharmacies for the same prescription.
The WCRI study, Prescription Benchmarks for Florida, found that some Florida physicians wrote prescriptions more often for certain drugs that were especially profitable. For example, Carisoprodol (Soma®, a muscle relaxant) was prescribed for 11 percent of the Florida injured workers with prescriptions, compared to 2 to 4 percent in most other study states.
Financial incentives may help explain more frequent prescription of the drug, as the study suggested. The price per pill paid to Florida physician dispensers for Carisoprodol was 4 times higher than if the same prescription was filled at pharmacies in the state.
The study reported that the average number of prescriptions per claim in Florida was 17 percent higher than in the median state. Similar results can be seen in the average number of pills per claim.”
To say Scott’s position is inconsistent is like saying abuse of prescription drugs is bothersome; a wild understatement.


Mar
29

Comp medical costs are back on the rise

We usually find out about things first when there’s a report out of California; growing facility costs, surgical implants, physician repackaging, compound meds, narcotic usage are among the cost drivers that received wide-spread attention after publicity in California.
Yesterday’s news that medical costs have resumed their seemingly-inexorable rapid climb may be the most troubling revelation yet from the Golden State.
Here’s what CWCI had to say about their review of recent medical cost trends:

The results confirm the findings of the earlier studies, again showing a sharp reduction in medical payments immediately after the reforms were enacted in 2004, followed by a distinct trend of increasing medical payments associated with work injuries beginning in AY 2006 and continuing through the end of the study period. This trend has pushed average medical expenditures per claim significantly above pre-reform levels, with all four of the medical expense categories continuing to rise. [emphasis added

According to CWCI, the growth in medical costs was far outweighed by the increase in medical management/cost containment expenses. That’s concerning, but without these cost containment investments, medical costs would have been much higher.
CWCI again – “Although the utilization review and the Medical Provider Network access fees represent significant, ongoing medical cost containment expenditures for workers’ compensation claims administrators, prior CWCI studies have shown that they are associated with an estimated $12.8 billion to $25.3 billion in medical cost saving between 2004 and 2008. [emphasis added] I would note the terminology is somewhat indirect, cost containment programs are “associated with” the savings. It is impossible to say what would have happened if those programs had not been in place, thus we can only make (well-)educated assumptions.
Which leads to this rather troubling conclusion – despite major reforms, huge investments in what look to be much-more-effective cost containment programs, and ongoing attempts to close regulatory loopholes, medical costs are once again zooming up.
And if its happening in California, a state with pretty strong managed care, it may well be much worse in other jurisdictions.
What does this mean for you?
Do you know where your medical costs are heading?


Mar
28

What’s going to affect work comp in 2012 – MSAs

A couple weeks ago I started a three-part series on what’s going to affect workers comp in 2012. After a few diversions and current-events-driven-interruptions, we’re finishing up today with the impact of MSAs
Pharmacy costs – and CMS’ treatment of same – are causing many payers to delay or reconsider settling claims. While MSAs are not, (very) strictly speaking, required to close claims in most jurisdictions (Maryland being the exception), as a practical matter, payers are quite reluctant to settle claims without an approved MSA.
From conversations with several payers, MSA experts, and claims execs, it is becoming apparent that CMS’ current ‘policy’ related to drugs has reached the point where it is severely affecting claims handling.
There are at least three major issues here – and likely a few others of just-slightly-less importance.
First, CMS is valuing drugs at the current AWP, regardless of the actual price paid, brand status, or likely future pricing. Many scripts are currently paid below AWP, due either to state fee schedules that are below AWP or PBM contracts that offer even more reductions. I’m not sure of the logic here, but it does appear counter-intuitive.
Second, a similar ‘policy’ appears based in the belief that the claimant’s current treatment regimen will never change, that it is set in stone. The drugs dispensed to the claimant at the moment the MSA is developed are what the valuation is based upon. If there are brand drugs that are likely to go off-patent (a definite until the recent OxyContin re-branding), there’s no change in estimates of future cost to account for that. If the meds are typically prescribed for a brief duration, no matter.
In the latter case, CMS has a pretty good case; there are far too many claimants taking drugs today that most reasonable practitioners would characterize as only appropriate for a limited duration – Schedule II narcotics as perhaps the prime example. I’d suggest that in this instance, we’ve done it to ourselves.
Finally, CMS takes a rather dogmatic view of off-label prescribing – it doesn’t like it. This significantly complicates the picture as many claimants’ drug treatment regimens include off-label use of meds. While off-label use can be completely inappropriate, in many instances it is not. Thus, the ‘policy’ can lead to confusion and difficulties in reaching agreement with CMS.
As a result of these and other MSA-related complications, most payers are not able to settle claims that they’d very much like to get off their books once and for all. Claim loads are increasing as a result, and reserves are as well.
Several industry stakeholders are working diligently to resolve these and other issues. What is clear is CMS is going to ensure they are protecting CMS’ interests. While this is a generally good thing (we taxpayers are thereby protected as well), the current stalemate is not helping anyone.