Health reform won’t happen this year; ignore all the brave happy talk – there will be no bill that reforms the insurance markets, lowers costs, and/or expands coverage.
You can’t have insurance market reform – ending medical underwriting and risk selection – without a strong mandate. And you can’t force people to buy health insurance they can’t afford without big subsidies. The current budget deficit and recession mean subsidies aren’t a reality. There’s just no way a family making $75,000 can afford a $15,000 health insurance premium (plus out of pocket expenses) without a big subsidy.
As to cost reduction, Congress has shown itself fundamentally unable to enact meaningful cost reductions. The Republicans painted themselves into a corner with their ‘death panels’ and ‘government-controlled health care’ memes. They could have staked out a credible and creditable position as the responsible adults in the debate by getting tough on costs as a way to help business, reduce future costs and thereby deficits and tax burdens.
(But then what do you expect from the party that gave us Part D, the biggest entitlement program since Medicare, along with its $8 trillion ultimate unfunded liability.)
Not that the Democrats gave them much choice. Senate Dems thought they didn’t need the GOP, believing they could ram thru a bill they drafted on the strength of their supermajority. And perhaps they could have, if the Mass Senate race hadn’t interfered. Sadly, the Senate bill showed our political process at its worst, with glutinous Senators selling their votes for heaping helpings of pork larded with political sweets – clauses on abortion, immigration, and taxes.
The cost estimates were misleading at best; none factored in the quarter trillion deficit we are carrying due to the Medicare physician reimbursement fiasco. The quick fix that’s in place today has raised physician compensation by a whole percentage point, making it seven years out of eight that Congress has failed to restrain the growth of Medicare’s physician spending.
Given the present environment, I don’t see a meaningful effort to do anything different. Thus next year we’re going to face an even larger deficit, as our feckless elected officials kick the can further down the path.
No, reform won’t happen this year, and isn’t likely in 2011.
What does this mean for you?
Family insurance premiums of $30,000 in ten years.
Insight, analysis & opinion from Joe Paduda