Last week’s CWCI conference was – as usual – stuffed with useful information you can’t find anywhere else.
We’ll start off with this – Mark Schniepp PhD’s discussion of the state of the economy. Interesting takeaways indeed…
First up, consumer sentiment is not great – despite a booming jobs market, rising wages, low consumer debt and strong household finances including a solid savings rate, folks seem concerned about inflation. (note these data don’t account for the Russian war on Ukraine).
Second, jobs. There’s a giant number – as in a record – of job openings. This is pushing wages up – which I’d argue is a good thing, as the middle class’ wage increases have long lagged income increases among the super-rich. The lack of child care is a major factor – Dr Schniepp noted:
“among prime-age workers – those without children have fully returned to the workforce.”
I’m quite sure you, dear reader, know families that are constantly stressed by the lack of child care and the impact that has on work.
As one who graduated college at the height of the inflation back in 1980, when mortgage rates were in the teens and inflation wasn’t much lower, I get the concern about inflation.
That said, jobs were scarce indeed back then. So, compared to the early eighties, people are doing quite well, but IMO people are paying way too much attention to things like gas prices.
Gas accounts for just one out of every fifty dollars of personal spending…demonstrating once again that people are NOT rational.
The Russian War on Ukraine will likely drive some costs higher although we Americans are much less vulnerable than folks in Africa which rely on Ukrainian wheat and other grains.
Dr Schneipp does NOT expect inflation to persist, and noted that most key economic indicators are rising, consumer demand is strong, corporate profits are really high and business investment is surging.
The net…
We are not rational beings. The economy is doing quite well, you are probably doing pretty well (unless you can’t find child care), higher gas prices REALLY don’t affect you, and…you don’t live in Ukraine.
More to come tomorrow…
