What does the Florida GOP primary say about voters’ views on health care?
At first blush, they aren’t concerned.
A poll by the St. Pete Times showed increased access to health care was not even close to primary voters’ top priority – it’s the economy (38% v 6% for health care). An exit poll reported over 60% of GOP voters think the economy is in bad shape.
But before we start reading too much into this, lets look at the GOP primary voter, and what the demographics may say about his/her perspective on health care.
Over half of GOP primary voters were over 60, and a third over 65 – therefore covered by Medicare. It’s no wonder they are not concerned about health care; they’ve got great coverage at a modest price. Their younger neighbors are nowhere near as fortunate – Florida ranks dead last in the percentage of 18-64 with insurance (73%).
Fully a quarter of the Sunshine State’s population is in the 18-29 bracket, and they are registering to vote in record numbers. They are also much less likely to vote in primary elections – only 7% of GOP primary voters were in this demographic.
What does all this mean?
McCain’s bare-bones health care position didn’t hurt him one iota in Florida. But, and it’s a big but, none of his GOP competitors’ positions were materially different.
If McCain is the eventual nominee, Floridians will get to choose between his laissez-faire approach and the Democratic candidate’s market-based universal coverage (well, in Obama’s case, pretty much universal). That contrast, which may well be exacerbated by voter angst about the economy (and attendant fear of losing employer-based coverage) will push health care much closer to the top of voter’s minds.
Joe: your analysis is salient in respect to the demographics of Florida. However, as the recent demise of the California Reform proposals demonstrate, unless there is a clear means of defining, delineating and explaining the costs associated with providing universal access, cost control and quality accountability, reform measures remain a difficult legislative endeavor. The CA populace abandoned support of health reform measures when the state budget deficit was revealed, an independent analysis provoked fears of ever increasing deficits and the politicians were viewed as game playing with term limits as a quid pro quo for support. This should be a no-brainer to provide for universal access…but we are still faced with the special interests (and personal interests) finding any means to be the cul-de-sac on the road to progress.