The property-casualty industry looks to be heading for a profitable year, but (no pun intended) storm clouds are on the horizon. The latest prediction comes from Conning and Co, the Hartford, Conn. based insurance research firm.
According to Conning’s analysis, 2006 looks very strong, with past price hikes fattening bottom lines. The bad news is the industry can’t ever seem to maintain pricing discipline, which is (inevitably) leading to price competition in some lines, which in turn will result in rising loss costs and a decline in return on equity (which isn’t all that strong to start with at 9.2% in 2005).
So far, prices have remained flat to slightly down, with mild variations among the various insurance lines (work comp prices are slightly lower, property (outside of hurricane areas) flat, D&O down somewhat…)
The big worry continues to be the storm season, which has been quite mild to date. One knowledgeable source, a reinsurance broker, told me the reinsurers are holding their collective breath while watching the Weather Channel. if the weather continues its’ current quiescent state, reinsurers may well recover a big chunk of the losses they incurred over the last couple of years. If not, expect to see reinsurance premiums zoom up for all property and casualty lines, as reinsurers seek to maintain solvency.
What does this mean for you?
Primary insurer profitability follows reinsurer profitability, hope for calm winds.
Aug
17
