National health care will be reality within five years. All the theory, intellectual debate, politicking, lobbying, trips to Scottish golf resorts and campaign contributions funded by lobbyists, insurers, providers, and big pharma will come up against two overwhelming forces – demographics and the weight of bad decisions in the past.
As of the last Medicare trustee report, Medicare’s long term debt is $32.4 trillion. Part D alone is responsible for a quarter of that amount, or $8 billion. In comparison, the entire Social Security debt is $4 trillion.
In the face of that incomprehensibly huge figure, we have a Congress that is incapable of doing anything that might alienate seniors, doctors, pharmaceutical manufacturers or hospitals. We have an administration seeking to cut provider reimbursement and increase seniors’ costs by $36 billion over 4 years. That’s about 1% of the total medicare deficit. And we have the Bush tax cuts set to expire by 2011, which just happens to be the same time the Medicare trust fund cash flow turns from black to red as the Baby Boomer generation starts cashing in.
This will force change. The only question is will there be a single payer system, universal coverage via private insurers, some form of hybrid, or a new and as-yet unformed model. Given the recent transgressions of the major national health plans, I wouldn’t go too long on Aetna, United Healthcare, or CIGNA stock.
If you are looking for what it may look like and the features thereof, see here and here.
What does this mean for you?
Your decision – part of the solution or part of the problem?
Jun
2
You may be right, Joe. I certainly hope you are, but I can’t help being very skeptical. So much will depend on who’s running the show in DC. That means that the mid-term elections are even more important, as is the Presidential and congressional elections of 2008. One thing’s for sure – it’s going to be very interesting.
Only slightly related, but has anyone noticed that “catastrophic” health insurance is no longer offered?