Yesterday’s New York TImes includes an excellent primer on avian flu (A(H5N1)), one that executives at managed care firms would be well-advised to read and file away. For those without the time or inclination to do so, here’s a couple interesting take-aways.
To get your attention, the World Health Organization estimates that if the bird flu becomes contagious among humans, an infection rate of 25% is possible. Estimates are that this would lead to deaths totaling 400,000 in Europe and 200,000+ in the US.
1. To date, bird flu has infected about 200 humans and killed approximately 100 that we are aware of. This last qualifier is key; as most of the infections have occured in underdeveloped countries, reporting may well be suspect. However, for a disease that has been in existence for over ten years, the death toll has been very low indeed. This leads some experts to surmise that avian flu is not likely to “jump” to human-human transmissability – if it hasn’t in ten years, it likely never will.
2. The death rate may not be nearly as high as indicated above, as some infected people may have relatively mild cases for unknown reasons. Again, under-reporting would skew the numbers.
3. BUT. The disease also did not move out of southeast Asia for ten years, then exploded across the entire continent in the space of a few months. This somewhat refutes the argument that since the disease has yet to become transmissable between humans it won’t over the long term.
4. Flu pandemics are unpredictable, vary widely in their lethality and the profile of victims, can occur any time of year, and are very difficult to prevent via vaccine and treat via drugs, as the virus is highly adaptable.
Fitch Ratings has doen their usual excellent work preparing a review of the potential impact of bird flu on the insurance industry. While Fitch notes that most of the financial impact of a pandemic woudl hit life insurers and reinsurers, it also provides its perspective on the effect on other lines of insurance, notably health.
What does this mean for you?
Better to be aware and prepared for something that never happens than unprepared for a crisis.
Mar
29
