Feb
24

When Medicare changes physician reimbursement – the impact on health plans

Medicare physician reimbursement will change next year. As I noted yesterday, it looks like cognitive services (office visits, etc) will be paid at higher rates, while procedures (surgeries etc) will see a cut in reimbursement.
Consider the fallout from the change. If things go as I think they will, the specialty societies and their allies will fight long and very very hard to minimize any reductions in reimbursement. But over time, their compensation will decline relative to generalist pay. And over time, the re-leveling will become reality – the generally-accepted-way-the-world-is. That process will take years not months, and be marked by ups and downs, resistance from providers and nastiness in negotiations.

What are the implications for health plans?
Several.
The near term – the end of this year into 2011
Specialists will seek to replace lost revenue by increasing prices paid by and the number of services delivered to health plan members. Yes, cost shifting. This makes it even more important for health plans to invest in medical management, data mining, physician profiling and reporting. This new pressure to shift costs will manifest itself in a variety of ways – some obvious and some not.
Contracting will take longer, be tougher, and be even more acrimonious than it is today. Health plans will have to plan carefully, provide contracting staff with real, accurate data they can use to convey market share, provider effectiveness, and provider rankings. These last will be highly contentious; physicians will vociferously defend their practices and complain about metrics and methodologies. And in many cases they may have a case. But if they want to be paid more, providers will have to make a convincing case that they are worth it. The net – both parties will need more and better information.
The longer term
Health plans with smaller market share will be at an even-greater disadvantage. Providers will be increasingly picky about the plans they contract with, forcing small plans into a Hobbesian choice – agree to higher rates to fatten the provider directory, and suffer the consequences of the inevitably higher medical loss ratios. Or refuse to contract at higher rates and end up with far too few specialists.
Except for those health plans that are part of integrated delivery systems. These plans will (over time) flourish, especially if they ‘buy’ their physician services from one or a very few groups.
Over time, expect health plans to also reduce compensation to specialists (relative to generalists). The smart plans, those who can look beyond next quarter’s medical loss ratio numbers, will not try to keep generalist reimbursement low while also ratcheting down specialist pay. (Alas, there are far too few ‘smart’ plans.)
There’s a wild card out there as well. Those plans investing in medical homes will likely find their need for specialist services is reduced rather dramatically. While there’s been much talk about homes, there’s not been a matching amount of activity. The reimbursement change could trigger that, as it will drive more providers into primary care. If the need for specialists is reduced, as it should be with the home model, those same specialists will find they have little leverage.
What does this mean for you?
If you are a provider, be prepared to make the case that you are better than the competition. Payers, get serious about profiling and reporting. Primary care docs, change is a-coming.


Feb
11

Why did Coventry’s medical loss ratio increase?

Because they allowed workers comp and national accounts to dictate provider contracting strategies, a decision that drove up the core group business’ medical loss ratio.
Here’s how.
The beginning of the tough times for Coventry came last spring. Up till then, things had been moving along quite nicely – just a year ago, I noted “For Coventry, 2007 was an excellent year. Total revenue (including group and medicare) came in just short of the $10 billion mark, the commercial group medical loss ratio (MLR) was a stellar 77.3%, and there was modest membership growth in group, Part D and the individual health lines.”
Just before the wheels came off, I said “this is a company that, justifiably, prides itself on its ability to predict and price for medical trend. It is not expert in nor does it even emphasize medical management, chronic care management, outcomes assessment, provider profiling, or any other form of ‘managed care’. Coventry is expert at managing the balance between pricing and reimbursement.”
Well, I was half right – and half wrong. Coventry may be expert in managing pricing but it is now obvious that it doesn’t understand reimbursement.
Now that new CEO Allen Wise is on the job, Coventry’s staff is conducting a top to bottom review to determine, in part, what drove medical costs up so high without anyone noticing/understanding/fixing it early on. Here’s how Wise characterized what happened in the earnings call earlier this week, as provided by the good folks at SeekingAlpha in the transcript.
“When I was conducting a review of the company, I was trying to determine the cause of the 300 or 350-basis point deterioration in the commercial medical loss ratio, and I think it is impossible for me to determine precisely what happened there. You heard a little bit about the flow and you heard a little bit about MSDRGs [new medicare hospital pricing methodology], and you heard a little bit about [hospital] unit costs, and I think it’s a probably a little bit of every thing, but there was not any question there was stress at the local health plan of a contractual nature by some of our other businesses, and by that I mean the network rental business, the Workers’ Comp business. I am not sure on the Medicare front, but when you interviewed people here and in the field, look at our litigation count on litigations for network-related issues, there was stress enough there, and enough of frequency to people recounting stops among major providers they started off with that until you solve X or Y problem, none of which were connected to the commercial health risk thing that your rates are going to go up or something.…[emphasis added] I think there was a bit of pressure on unit cost. I expected to find some deterioration in local patient management activities. I did not find that. The core competency of the company, while there is plenty of clutter with new activities and a feeling of a lot of things going on at one time, I did not find a loss of focus at the local health plan levels. Many of those medical directors have been with us for a decade, and I didn’t see much change there. If you take the unit cost level, I just think in meeting with our new guy Allen Karp and best practices in each of the plans and having more quantitative information on what really happens on a month to month basis out there, I think there’s just room for improvement there.”
Shawn M. Guertin, Coventry’s CFO, went on to say “…There is no doubt that the facility unit cost experience was worse than it had historically been and worse than we had expected in ’08…”
Coventry’s local provider relations folks were tasked with getting contracts with providers, contracts wherein providers would agree to discount their prices to patients affiliated with Coventry – either health plan members, employees of larger employers who used Coventry’s PPO contracts, workers comp claimants, and Medicare members. It appears the contracting effort was hampered by the need to include all these ‘products’ in provider contracts – especially for hospitals. As Wise said, during the contracting process, “[recruiting and contracting] people [were] recounting stops among major providers they started off with that until you [Coventry] solve X or Y problem, none of which were connected to the commercial health risk thing that your rates are going to go up or something…”
Coventry has determined that their group health MLR was higher than it should have been because their hospital costs were too high. This was driven by their hospital contracts – and the contracted rates were too high because Coventry wanted their payers to accept all products. When hospitals dug in their heels, Coventry’s staff gave away some discount for the group health rates in return for discounts for workers comp and PPO claimants.
Remember group health is the big business at Coventry – work comp accounts for less than 7% of the company’s total revenues. I get the sense that Wise is wondering why the needs of the workers comp and PPO businesses were allowed to take precedence over his core business – and increase the group business’ MLR.
Good question.


Jan
28

What now for Coventry?

Friday will be Dale Wolf’s last day at Coventry. After diversifying the company into workers comp, Medicare Part D, Medicare Advantage and private fee for service, and individual insurance, he leaves behind a much different Coventry than the one he took over in 2005. Don’t shed too many tears for Mr Wolf, he leaves after earning over $13 million last year alone.
The health world is also much different. Insurance itself is rapidly approaching the unaffordable level, participation rates are dropping (fewer employees signing up at companies that offer insurance), the Bush administration’s massive attempt to privatize Medicare and Medicaid will likely be reversed, hospital costs are exploding, and national health reform is around the corner.
And Coventry’s stock is a quarter what it was a year ago, while solutions to the company’s problems look ever further away.
Lots to consider, but I offer these thoughts.
The CEO is out, two weeks before the company releases its 2008 earnings report. The 65 year old former CEO is back. The company is not looking for a new CEO. Coventry’s commercial business is hamstrung by the factors noted above. It is not doing so well in Medicaid and Medicare growth will likely slow considerably. The company has not shown any expertise in managing care; it appears to rely solely on price increases to manage medical inflation. It has stumbled badly twice in the last year, both times failing to accurately forecast medical costs.
There is some thought that the company may be for sale. I’m one who leans in that direction. Recent news makes it more likely the company will not be sold in its entirety, but rather sell off pieces/markets/health plans. There are just too many moving parts in the 2009 version of Coventry; this complexity would make a comprehensive due diligence effort long and miserable – and given Coventry’s historical inability to predict health costs, potentially inaccurate.
But it is cheap.
Never one to forgo an opportunity to say something that will come back to haunt me in the future, I’m going to go out on a thin and ice-bound limb and opine that Coventry will sell off some health plans, and perhaps the work comp and other specialty businesses (e.g. mental health). A little less likely is a sale of the entire company.
What is unlikely is Coventry is essentially unchanged a year from now.


Jan
27

Coventry’s management shakeup

Yesterday’s announcement that Coventry had replaced CEO Dale Wolf with former CEO Allen Wise came after an internal review of the company’s performance, a review that didn’t come out too well.
According to Dow Jones, “The move comes after a series of missteps the health insurer took late last year. The company lost nearly half its market value in October after it slashed its 2008 forecast, citing higher medical costs at its commercial and Medicare health plans, unexpectedly low business volume and higher overhead spending.”
As I noted last week, Coventry’s talk at the JPMorgan investor day meeting was given for the most part by CFO Shawn Guertin; other investor meetings and calls were usually split between Wolf and Guertin, or conducted primarily by Wolf. In retrospect, the change is apparent.
The company’s stock value increased somewhat today, rallying after a positive review by Wachovia. It is still quite a bit (about $43) below its 52-week high of $57.22.el
Wolf is one of the smarter and more experienced people in the small group HMO business. He has extensive experience in this space, including a stint running the old Travelers’ small group block back in the late eighties and early nineties (where he was an internal customer; I was responsible for the UR/CM customer relations at the Travelers). He knows this business very well. Wolf also learned a lot about the HMO business from Allen Wise; the former- and current-CEO of Coventry. Wise is well-named.
From listening to Wolf and watching his moves over the last few years, my sense is he got a bit over-confident. He and his colleagues relished investor calls, bragging about their abilities and sense of the business, delighting in describing their business knowledge and disciplined management. As long as the results backed up the talk, it was all good. But self-confidence can look an awful lot like blind arrogance when problems arise – as they did not once but twice last year.
Missing the medical loss ratio last spring stunned analysts, and a somewhat similar mistake in the fall killed whatever credibility remained.
The final blow may have been the announcement last week that earnings would come in below expectations; during the JP Morgan call Guertin and Wolf all but begged analysts to be patient and wait till 2010, when the turnaround plan would show results. Twelve months is way too long for Wall Street, especially when the request is coming from someone who has lost all credibility.
Wolf’s expansion in secondary and tertiary HMO markets, while not universally successful, was smart. The company’s early move into Medicare Advantage and related businesses was also the right play at the time. And his takeover of the work comp managed care market brought solid cash flow, great profits, and the comfort of a non-risk business into the portfolio. In the end, the failure to execute on the basics of the business coupled with an overweening self-confidence made all the good moves irrelevant.
What does this mean to you?
Don’t read your own press clippings.


Jan
21

Coventry Health – it’s about medical, folks!

It’s no secret that Coventry Health had a tough 2008. After several years of continued growth in profits, revenues, and market cap, management was nothing if not self-confident. Perhaps not self-aware, but certainly self-confident. That ended a little less than a year ago, with the announcement that financial results had suddenly plummeted due to higher medical loss ratios.
The earnings debacle of 2008 started in the spring and recurred in October with additional bad news. The overall impact was more analogous to total immersion in the Barents Sea (think Deadliest Catch) than a dash of cold water in the face. The result is not heightened alertness and awareness, but rather a serious case of hypothermia, with the accompanying symptoms of lethargy, impaired decision-making, and a rather tenuous prognosis.
As I said back in June; my sense is that Coventry’s management has been spending way too much time managing the numbers and nowhere near enough time managing medical. Those are not the same thing. Reflecting back on the calls I’ve listened to and management reports I’ve read, I can’t recall any detailed discussion of disease management, hospital expense management, outpatient utilization, or centers of excellence. There was a bit more discussion of facility costs in a lengthy equity analyst presentation last week, with CFO Shawn Guertin and Chairman Dale Wolf noting (this isn’t an exact quote but pretty close) “it is really clear that it [the biggest cost driver] continues to be facility [costs] – facility patterns of care and units cost – and we are going everything to plug any leak we can find to tighten everything down. It is a unit cost issue…” In response to a follow up question, Wolf said Coventry’s network discounts look “very very competitive” (compared to other larger competitors).
That’s great. Yet Coventry’s medical trend is still projected to be higher than (most of) the competition, and it doesn’t look like this is due to pricing.

I’d also note that (yet again) there was precious little in the way of insightful questions from the assembled equity analysts. A couple individuals asked questions that sorta addressed underlying cost drivers, but there was no real due diligence, no digging deep into the facility cost issue, and absolutely no question about or reference to utilization. This is particularly surprising; it is abundantly clear to anyone who has spent more than a few minutes examining health care cost drivers that utilization is THE key driver.
I’m also a little confused given Wolf’s comments that Coventry’s network discounts look good, yet in an earlier statement, Guertin noted facility unit costs were problematic. Perhaps I misunderstood.
Here’s the net. A somewhat-chastened management team wants analysts and investors to look forward to 2010, as that’s when all their efforts will bear financial fruit. Yet I don’t see any real evidence that they are paying any attention to their ‘cost of goods sold’. Sure, they know the numbers, the loss ratios, pricing, and the impact of all that on EPS, but there’s precious little evidence that they understand, or are addressing in any meaningful way, the underlying drivers of technology, chronic illness, utilization.
What does this mean for you?

Network discounts are not a managed care strategy.

Tomorrow we’ll address Coventry’s Medicare strategy.


Jan
19

The Ingenix settlement and physician income

FierceHealthcare reported last week that Aetna paid $20 million to settle charges related to its use of the Ingenix UCR database (their term is MDR). There will likely be announcements from other health plans of their settlement amounts; expect them to be in the Aetna range or less.
This is related but not really to the $350 million settlement for damages related to out of network claims dating from 1994. The settlement, announced last week, will result in UHC paying AMA $300 million to distribute to physicians. However, physicians will have to file claims to receive compensation; one MCM reader noted that in a related case her six-physician practice will receive a whopping $225.
In a related note, I’d remind readers that physician income has been flat to declining over the last several years. Why? Medicare increased fees by 13% from 1997 to 2003, while the underlying inflation was 21%. And, private payers’ reimbursement declined from 143% of Medicare’s rate in 1997 to 123% in 2003.
I’m thinking we now know at least part of the reason physician income was declining; unfairly low reimbursement from payers using the Ingenix databases.
We already know about health play overpayments – they’re called Medicare Advantage.


Jan
15

The Ingenix settlement – you wanted details…

The phone and email has been buzzing today. So has the blog-o-sphere, at least among those bloggers who follow this. Both of us.
Today’s follow up announcement by Ingenix’ parent UHC revealed the giant health plan will pay $350 million to settle a class action lawsuit directly related to the use of the Ingenix UCR database. This brings the total (to date) cost for legal settlements to $400 million after yesterday’s NY settlement. Here’s the key language from UHC’s statement today.
“UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) announced today that it has reached an agreement to settle class action litigation related to reimbursement for out-of-network medical services. The agreement resolves class action litigation filed on behalf of the American Medical Association (AMA), health plan members, health care providers and state medical societies.
Under the terms of the proposed nationwide settlement, UnitedHealth Group and its affiliated entities will be released from claims relating to its out-of-network reimbursement policies from March 15, 1994, through the date of final court approval of the settlement. UnitedHealth Group will pay a total of $350 million to fund the settlement for health plan members and out-of-network providers in connection with out-of-network procedures performed since 1994. The agreement contains no admission of wrongdoing.”
The real problems with the Ingenix UCR database weren’t the subject of much discussion in the settlement documents or the various analyses of the settlement. But underlying the case are some significant problems with the database, how it is put together, and its uses. These issues were highlighted in the Davekos case in Massachusetts, and are discussed in the court record. Among the problems are:
– the accuracy and consistency of the underlying data is questionable. Ingenix cannot assure that the entities (health plans and claims administrators and insurance companies) that supply the data that Ingenix uses to determine what usual customary and reasonable charges are in specific areas are all using the same criteria, are coding consistently and accurately, and are aggregating the data in the same way.
– Ingenix may not always have enough charge data to provide a statistically valid sample for every CPT code. In that case, it appears that Ingenix may aggregate data from similar codes to produce a large enough sample. The potential issue with this work-around is obvious. In some instances, Ingenix actually called medical providers in specific areas where it did not have enough data to ask what they would charge for specific procedures. Thus they were combining telephonic survey data with actual charge data in their UCR databases, a commingling of very different data from very different sources with varying reliability.
– Ingenix itself defines the sociodemographic region boundary lines that are used to determine which charges are relevant for which geographic areas. In the Davekos case, the court appeared to be concerned when Ingenix could not give a defensible rationale for the logic or process they used to determine the boundaries for charge areas.
– Ingenix scrubs the data to extract charges that they decide are outliers for reasons that appear to be subjective. It also appears Ingenix removes high end values but not low end outliers. If this is the case, it would likely skew the charge data towards the lower end.
Those are some of the details behind the Ingenix UCR settlements. As to what will happen next, Bob Laszewski’s perspective provides insights as only he can.
What does this mean for you?
If you are using the Ingenix UCR database, you may want to look for other options.


Jan
12

The future of health plans – predictions for 2009

This is one tough year to be putting on the swami hat and dusting off the crystal ball. There are so many moving pieces affecting the group health/individual/Medicare/ Medicaid world that it will be hard enough to analyze what happened after the fact, much less before.
scrambled-toast-crystal-ball.JPG
Enough with the dissembling. Here goes.
1. Consolidation will accelerate. After a hiatus due to the still-slushy credit markets, big health plans will start acquiring second tier ones. Expect this to happen after mid-year, for reasons due not only to the credit markets but also to goings-on on Capitol Hill. Among the health plans likely to get attention are Humana, MVP Health Plan, AmeriHealth, and Priority Health.
1.a.
Coventry will also be on the list; it has solid penetration in a number of second-tier and tertiary markets along with a strong workers comp managed care business. The company has been hamstrung by operating issues; if these appear to be under control it will likely be in play in 2009. Check their talk at the JP Morgan conference later this week for an early indication of progress. (Note I own shares in Coventry)
2. Health plans will split in their reaction to legislation pending in DC. Some will wail and whine, while others will look for the opportunities. Among those already reasonably well positioned are Aetna and UHG (particularly their AmeriChoice unit). Count on AHIP to bemoan the unfairness of it all, and ask for subsidies in the form of risk pools and governmental coverage of high cost claims.
3. Expect more scrutiny of healthplans serving Medicaid and Medicare populations, as the Feds are ramping up their efforts to crack down on abusive and fraudulent practices. The new Administration will want to send a message to health plans that an expansion of S-CHIP and other governmental programs is not a license to steal. There will likely be more Wellcares hitting the headlines in 2009.
4. Health plans will begin to focus more effort on being easy to work with – especially for providers. Increasing frustration with the administrative burden placed on them by health plans is causing providers to become more selective about participation; the health plans that are ‘low-maintenance’ will have better relations with more providers, and the ones on the other end of the spectrum will not. See the Verden Group’s reports for a heads-up on how health plans stack up in the eyes of providers.
5. The Medicaid population will grow substantially, as well the percentage enrolled in some variation of a managed care plan (currently above 60%). Health plans active in this market will do well – if they are priced right.
6. The economic stimulus plan is critical for health plans. Enrollment depends on jobs; with unemployment at a sixteen-year high at 7.2% and smaller employers dropping coverage as they attempt to stay afloat, expect enrollment to continue to drop thru mid-year. This will hit the big commercial plans hardest, although a few are somewhat insulated as the drop in commercial will be offset by growth in Medicaid.
7. Don’t expect much growth in the individual plans; they are unaffordable for many and restrictions on pre-ex make them unattractive for others. Until and unless the pre-ex and medical underwriting issues are resolved, growth will be slow – at best.
Check back in twelve months.


Jan
6

Misleading managed care headlines

Last week a study hit the wires indicating that managed care plans did not have better outcomes for carotid endarterectomies (CEs), a surgical procedure ostensibly intended to reduce the risk of stroke.
Here’s the headline from UPI – “No managed care link for stroke-prevention”.
A quick read of the headline and abstract leads the reader to the conclusion that managed care is ineffective. But there’s much more to it than the headline and brief synopsis. For starters, the data was ten years old. It was from one state (NY), that is not exactly known as a hotbed of managed care. And it lumps all kinds of ‘managed care’ – from group model HMOs to PPOs under the same category.
And the study’s conclusions are muddy. In fact, there had been a good bit of research into the procedure itself (it involves cleaning out the carotid artery (the big one in the neck that bad guys are forever threatening to cut in movies), and the data used indicated “the rate of inappropriate surgery dropped substantially from 32 percent in 1981 prior to the RCTs [randomized controlled trials] to 8.6 percent in 1998/1999 after publication of the clinical trials [by AHRQ].” Clearly, medical practice had changed dramatically over that period, due primarily to publication of data indicating the procedure “reduced the risk of stroke and death compared to medication alone among carefully selected patients and surgeons.”; the research also showed many patients did not benefit from the surgery.
It wasn’t that simple. In fact, the surgery rate had dropped in the mid-eighties after publication of research indicating the procedure had high complication risks. A decade later, additional research seemed to show that CEs did benefit some patients, and the rate shot up again, only to start a gradual decline.
What happened? Generally accepted medical practice changed. Was the rate different within “managed care’ plans? No. But why would it have been?
I worked for large managed care/health plan companies during the late eighties and early nineties, with responsibilities in customer reporting and managed care product development. We all knew there were probably too many carotid endarterectomies performed, but we didn’t really know which ones were inappropriate. The indications were rather uncertain, and it did appear the procedure helped some patients. What was not clear was which patients would benefit and which would likely not. The ‘choice’ we made was to encourage/mandate/require second surgical opinions (at that time the state of the art in managed care) to ensure the patient got at least one other physician’s views on the potential risks and benefits. There wasn’t much in the way of clinical guidelines that we could use to deny the procedure outright, and the legal risks of a denial were so high that this option was never seriously considered.
Truth be told, the managed care firms I worked for had little ‘control’ over medical practice. Sure, we had contracts with physicians, but our influence was minimal – we were ‘two inches deep and a hundred miles wide’. With little ‘market share’ in any one physician’s office, it was unlikely most of ‘our’ docs would pay much attention to directives from one of our Medical Directors. We did notice that our rate of surgeries was dropping, but did not have the data to know if this was occurring across the board and thereby due to our efforts (I’m pretty sure we took credit for the decrease…) or was driven by external factors.
Contrast our very loose ‘managed care’ with the much different model exemplified by group and staff HMOs – Kaiser Permanente, Group Health of Puget Sound, HIP, etc. I don’t know what the group/staff model HMO rates were, but I’d bet they were lower than my employers’.
In retrospect, it is obvious that external factors were the reason for the decline in my employer’s number and rate of carotid endarterectomies. In retrospect.
What does this mean for you?
There’s far too much superficiality in the press, superficiality that can distort public views of managed care and the effectiveness thereof. In this case, the headline, although nominally accurate, is highly misleading.


Dec
2

The taming of the wild west – PPO regulation is getting serious

The PPO world is about to get more complicated, and likely less profitable – for the PPOs.
The National Conference of Insurance Legislators (NCOIL) has developed model legislation tightly regulating PPOs, legislation that looks to be on the docket in at least two states next year, and likely others as well.
According to Bill Kidd in today’s WorkCompCentral, the model act “allows unlimited “downstream” rentals of PPO contracts and physician discounts, but requires that network access information be made available to providers.
The model establishes criteria for network and discount access and contract termination; sets out contracting entity rights and responsibilities, requires disclosure to providers and contracting entities of third-party access; provides for registration of unlicensed contracting entities; prohibits and penalizes under a state’s unfair trade practices act unauthorized access to provider network contracts and allows physicians to refuse a network discount without a contractual basis.”
The key is the notification requirement. The model act calls for PPOs to periodically inform providers of all the networks and ‘access brokers’ who can access the network contract. Providers have to be kept informed of changes to the list, and the list has to be emailed, mailed, and/or posted on a secure website.
While the issue of silent PPOs has been on a slow boil for years in many jurisdictions, It has been much more contentious in several states including Louisiana, Texas, California, and Oregon. Provider groups have complained that the managed care contracts they enter into have been sold and resold multiple times without their permission or agreement. That complaint is arguably minor; what is definitely not is providers’ belief that the payers accessing the contracts ‘downstream’ are not doing anything to direct patients, but are simply accessing contracts to get a discount.
This is the core issue – PPOs trade volume for discounts. For far too long, big, yellow-pages PPOs have done little to actually increase a provider’s patient volume. Many claim they have contracts with and/or access to hundreds of thousands of providers. If that’s the case, and I have no reason to doubt that it is, there is no way the PPO can claim it is actually directing care to a selected group of providers.
If everyone’s a member of the PPO, then it isn’t a ‘Preferred’ Provider Organization.
The bill under consideration in Texas provides a window into what other states may see on their legislative agendas.