Last week’s post about what will happen if we don’t have health reform got me (and a couple others) thinking about the downstream impact – on employers, manufacturers, taxpayers.
Before we delve into the impacts, a bit of clarification.
My statement that a family policy would cost $30,000 in 2016 was based on the latest info from two large consulting firms about commercial health insurance premiums – rates are going up more than ten percent next year. And it is highly likely they will continue to accelerate at or near the ten percent number. Two commenters noted that just because something happened in the past does not mean it will continue into the future – I’d respectfully note that while that is true in the abstract, in the concrete world of health insurance, there’s a very high likelihood that costs will indeed go up ten percent – or more – per year for the foreseeable future absent meaningful cost reform.
The AON survey reports trend rates ranged from 16.0% and 18.2% for HMo, PPO, Indemnity plans in 2002, 15.7% – 17.2% in 2003, 14.1% – 15.3% in 04, 12.7% (CDHP) to 14.6% in 05, 11.9% – 14.4% in 2006, 10.7% – 12.7% in 2007, and 10.5 – 12.4% in 2008.
The past is a pretty good predictor of the future; over the last eight years cost have consistently increased more than ten percent each year, with most increases well above that level. Whether we are at the bottom of the cycle or cost inflation rates will continue to decrease is unclear, but what is clear is that the inflation rate will head back up at some point in the next few years.
Back to the real world impact.
- If nothing changes, the share of the nation’s budget paid by the government will be greater than that paid thru private insurers.
- 178,000 small business jobs will be lost by 2018 as a result of health care costs
- If employee contributions stay at their current level (about 30% of premiums), workers will be paying $9000 per year, or $750 per month, towards their health coverage – not including deductible, copays, coinsurance, and services not covered
- General Motors’ health insurance will add about $3000 to the cost of each vehicle – if it is still in business>li>In my hometown of Madison, Conn., Town employee health insurance costs are paid for with property taxes; without reform the amount of tax revenue needed to pay those bills will double by 2016, forcing tax increases and/or significant service cuts
- More Americans will have to rely on the kindness of others for their health care
- Because 65 million of us will be without health insurance
Unlike the distortions, misrepresentations, and outright lies being spread by McCaughey, Limbaugh, Palin et al, this is the real deal. So fight against reform if you wish, but don’t complain later when you can’t afford insurance, your employer can’t afford insurance, your taxes are going up to pay for teachers’ benefits, and our economy is sinking under the weight of health care costs.
(Note – as I said Friday, health ‘reform’ must include cost control, something neither party has bothered to meaningfully address)
I am most vexed by those who claim that their policy is theirs in the current scenario and that this would be less the case under a government plan. This might be true for the few who buy their own policy. The only people who control their care fully are the rare person who pays directly out of pocket.
In the case of anyone insured, the control over health payments and coverage is in large part in the hands of the carrier, not the patient.
And for those who are employees, the policy comes from their employer and the employer can alter or take it away at will (unless there is a specific contract limiting this). I would trust the government to provide coverage in a predictable and consistent manner far more than the average employer, which includes me as provider of coverage for my staff. And let’s also not forget that many employers only cover the actual employee, not dependents, and that few employers I know of will provide coverage to employees after they leave the employer.
Other than cllect taxes, what otehr function performed by the Federal Government has been performed with effecient and effective outcomes. If the government was so effective, why are there still by their own estimates, 10-15 million people who qualify for Medicaid not receiving services. I want the government to stay our of the business of healthcare, and focus on provisoin of protections and policies that will enhance our lives and insure our abilities to receive a fair price for healthcare. 1) Tort Reform 2) Prosecution of Fraud and Abuse 3) Insuring the right to have health insurance is available to each american, but the responsibility is ours to act and pay for it if we choose.
Rick Mohler, you have been misled about government competence. Generally government programs function well, and this means they become more or less invisible. When I mail a letter, it gets to my mom. When I am driving after a snowstorm the highway gets plowed.
I sent one card to my mother five years ago that never arrived. I still remember that one clearly, but the thirty odd letters afterwards, and the hundreds before it which all arrived without incident, are not remembered.
Being Canadian, I have government health care, and it works just fine. My tests and surgeries will not lose me the house. My employer doesn’t have to worry about coverage — all they need to do is furnish a first aid room for the occasional papercut or twisted ankle, and even that is their choice, not a mandate.
The crazed behaviour of the US health insurers and their defenders to prevent healthcare reform, remind me in tone and intensity of nothing so much as an abusive husband trying to keep his wife from moving out. They are trying desperately to prevent people from realizing that THEY need US, but we don’t need them — especially not at an extortionate price.
Noni
Your blogs “Your life without healthcare reform part one” and “Your life without health reform part two” got me thinking about what really needs to be reformed in healthcare in the US. You are absolutely right that healthcare needs to be reformed with serious cost control. It makes no sense that those who prosper most in healthcare are insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and device companies while the patients and the hospitals continue to suffer. Americans have available one of the greatest healthcare systems in the world yet we are losing it all to greed and mismanagement. America cannot afford the consequence of “Medicare for All” with our current population near 305 million citizens, nor can we afford a system similar to Germany (population 82 million), Switzerland (population 7 million), France (population 65 million), or Canada (population 34 million). We need to start at the top, take our time, and really come up with a plan that will work for a country our size. We do not need a quick fix bill that is rushed through congress just to reassure the American citizens that healthcare reform is happening. We need the politicians to work together, get back to their roots with business minded thinking (the way they worked before they were in politics), and come up with a long term resolution for the healthcare industry that considers the people they serve over the desires of those who fill their campaign pockets.
This brings me to my second point and your second blog in this series (part two). I noticed the difference in the title first, part two is “health reform” where part one is “healthcare reform” and that is my point exactly. We cannot have healthcare reform related to cost savings without the American citizens taking personal responsibility for their own health and bodies by making changes to reform their health! We have gotten so spoiled and greedy with pharmaceuticals yet cannot figure out why big pharma continues to grow. Why face that hard work and uncomfortable feelings of quitting smoking when you can take a pill that will get you through it? Why control your weight with nutrition and exercise when they make a pill to decrease your appetite? Why try to control your diabetes or high blood pressure with weight reduction and diet modification when they make pills for that? We, as Americans, are lazy and like the legislators are looking for the quick fixes. It is time for Americans to take responsibility for our health! Instead of people getting rebates for medications we should be getting rebates for gym memberships. Instead of doctors getting kickbacks from big pharma, they should get rewards from insurance companies to keep their patients healthy. We need to shift our healthcare focus back to primary care where practitioners actually teach patients the health consequences and financial costs of being overweight as well as lifestyle modifications that can be made to lose weight. Only then will the changes in health and healthcare pay off for the citizens of this great country.