The Medicare Part D marketing wagon train has hit the road, with CMS Director Mark McClellan leading the effort to convince skeptical seniors to enroll in the program. By all accounts, the effort has yet to hit its stride (free subscription required), as some seniors are confused about the coverage, while healthy seniors appear uninterested in the benefit, and the chronically ill are concerned that the benefits will not be rich enough.
I have been saying for some months now that Medicare Part D is a bad idea primarily because it does not take into account adverse selection. Simply put, the only people who will sign up are those who need the benefit. Others will not sign up until they get sick; while there is a financial penalty for delayed entry into the program, it is so small that it is unlikely to act as a deterrent. In fact, a study by Brandeis University of seniors using drug discount cards indicates the cards were purchased disproportionally by seniors who were already significant drug consumers.
It is therefore difficult to see how this program will be a financial success. Yes, the government will subsidize money losing plans (where those funds will come from is somewhat of a mystery), yes there will be some price concessions on individual drugs as pharmacy benefit managers negotiate better deals with manufacturers, yes some employers will save money by having the Feds pick up their retirees’ Rx costs. But the fundamental flaw is that seniors will only sign up if they get more out of it then they pay in premiums.
Unless and until someone figures out how to overturn human nature, Medicare Part D is a dead duck.
Jul
18
Yes, I agree. One has to be very careful with Part D. PIt appears to be a benefit for the poor. The verbiage is confusing even for adults in the health care industry, more statistics should be drawn in to the entire picture, and of course, Congress should decide on drugs and other areas that are covered or not.